MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 298 - Volkanovski vs. Topuria
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria takes place this Saturday live from the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:30PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 8:00 PM on ESPN/ESPN+ and finally the Main Card at 10:00 PM on ESPN+ PPV.
The Main Event features the greatest featherweight of all time in Alexander Volkanovski facing off against up-and-coming Ilia Topuria in what should be a fight of the year candidate. The Co-Main event has fan favorite Robert Whittaker taking on one of the most fun fighters on the roster in Paulo Costa. This whole card should be action from start to finish so don’t miss it.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Alexander Volkanovski vs Ilia Topuria | 8200/8000 | - | Stackability: Low | -125/+105 | 225./200. |
| Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski looks to retain his Featherweight Title against one of the most exciting fighters in the division in Ilia Topuria. At this point it is hard to argue against Volk being the greatest Featherweight Champion of all-time, but Topuria is the most explosive and powerful fighter he has had to go up against. This line seems a little close for my liking, as I think Volk should be closer to +150, but he is getting up there in age and at some point, father time catches up to everyone. For the first few rounds I think Topuria is going to be able to keep pace and land the better shots, but this fight comes down to two things. First can Topuria fight at the pace Volk sets for 25 minutes, and secondly can he stop Volk's takedown attempts. I'm leaning towards the champ getting it done here using his wrestling and winning a close decision but either way you are going to want to have someone from this fight in your lineup as the winner is likely to score 95+ points even in a decision win and at $8200/$8000 that is more than enough to be worth the salary. If you are playing cash games, I would start your lineup with stacking this fight. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Rinya Nakamura | 9600 | Carlos Vera | Somewhat-Safe | -1,350 | -175 |
| There is one favorite who is head and shoulders above the rest this week and it is Nakamura. He has a massive -1350 odds to win, and he is likely going to land 5-7 takedowns if this reaches the judges’ scorecards, so he makes for one of the safest plays. The only downside to Rinya is that he is $300 more expensive than any other fighter so it's possible he outscores the other fighters priced around him, but not by enough to make it worth it. I'm going to have him in about 65% of the lineups that I make. | |||||
| Oban Elliott | 9300 | Val Woodburn | Somewhat-Safe | -310 | -110 |
| Once we get past Nakamura, we either get unproven fighters in the UFC, or one's who typically don't score well on DraftKings. Elliott likes to march forward but he is going to have to be careful early on with Woodburn's strength and power. Val was up a weight class, on two days’ notice, and facing a top 10 opponent so I don't want to go into this fight expecting him to be chinny for getting knocked out so Elliott's best path to victory is going to be to wear on Woodburn, tire him out and get the late Round 2 stoppage. Elliott is a GPP play, and as a whole I expect this fight to get pretty overlooked. | |||||
| Anthony Hernandez | 8800 | Roman Kopylov | Somewhat-Safe | -258 | 100. |
| I normally wouldn't jump all the way down to an $8800 priced fighter, but "Fluffy" Hernandez has a clear path to a massive score this week. Hernandez is going to wrestle, and when he does, he should be miles ahead of Kopylov on the ground. I expect this fight to either be Fluffy dominating with takedowns, landing some ground and pound, and eventually working for submissions. If it stays standing, he is going to get picked a part by Kopylov's striking. Fluffy knows what he has to do so I'm taking him to win by submission. | |||||
| Miranda Maverick | 8900 | Andrea Lee | Moderate | -185 | 330. |
| After the top 3 everyone else in this price range is likely to win a decision so there is a clear tier break after Hernandez. Maverick is the better wrestler and more physical so she should be able to get some takedowns over Lee, but she doesn't offer much striking so on the feet she is going to be behind. I think this fight is closer to 50/50, but I don't think she does enough to outscore the other fighters in this price range. | |||||
| Ian Garry | 9100 | Geoff Neal | Moderate | -230 | 200. |
| This is the toughest test for Garry, and he is somehow still a -230 favorite. Neal has shown he can beat the lower end of the top 15 and if you can't land power shots to get his respect, he will be in your face the whole entire fight. Garry wins this fight more often than not, but Neal has been in there with Stephen Thompson, Vincente Luque, and Shavkat Rakhmonov and has never been KO'd so I don't think Garry has the ability to KO him here. Garry is also a few fights removed from being dropped in the first round so while his chin has held up, he can be dropped. I'm actually betting on Neal to win the fight at +200, so for that reason I'm fading Garry in all of my lineups. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Merab Dvalishvili | 8600 | Henry Cejudo | Moderate | -225 | 450. |
| Merab has the highest ceiling, and he is normally a must play on any slate but I'm tempering my expectations a little bit here. He is still likely to get some takedowns, but Cejudo is an Olympic Wrestler so he should be able to stop most of the takedown attempts. Merab will likely shoot 15-20 takedowns here so even if he only is successful on 30% of them he should wind up with a decent amount. I'll be playing him in 25-35% of my lineups which is lower than I normally allocate for Merab. | |||||
| Zhang Mingyang | 8400 | Brendson Ribeiro | Moderate | -122 | 100. |
| This fight is nearly -1000 to end inside the distance so you likely need to play someone from this fight in most of your lineups. Zhang has some power, but his technique isn't there. He is going to run into the fire, clinch up and look to land elbow. Someone in this fight is scoring well so you want to have a piece of it, but this is going to be ugly. His fight before the UFC, he was facing a 1-3 regional fighter so this should be a major step up in competition for him. He has 16 wins, all in the first round, and of his 22 professional fights. | |||||
| Marcos Rogerio de Lima | 8500 | Justin Tafa | Somewhat-Risky | -148 | 100. |
| Marcos has the grappling advantage and I think that's his key to this fight. Both of these guys have power, and both of them like to get the early finish but if this fight gets sloppy, Rogerio should be able to lean on his wrestling to help him out. Tafa has been KOing the lowest level of fighters the UFC has to offer, while Rogerio has been having mixed results as he faces higher ranked fighters. Rogerio de Lima is coming off of a quick KO loss to Derrick Lewis, but if Tafa was thrown in that matchup, I predict the same outcome for him. This is another fight where one of them likely scores really well at a modest price and in this case, I'm leaning towards Marcos. | |||||
| Mackenzie Dern | 7900 | Amanda Lemos | Somewhat-Risky | 114 | 215. |
| I've been on the fade Amanda Lemos train for a while now, and while it's normally because she is a big favorite, this time it's because of the grappling advantage of Dern. Dern looked awful last time out against Andrade, but the gym she had been at for years was closed down and she tried a new fight camp which didn't work out well. She's back with Jason Parillo and I expect to see a better version of her here. Lemos has the power and speed advantage early but once she begins to wear out, I think Dern will be able to get into more favorable grappling positions and eventually find the submission. | |||||
| Danny Barlow | 8700 | Josh Quinlan | Somewhat-Risky | -205 | 110. |
| I like Barlow and respect his power, and on most cards targeting a fight with an inside the distance of -250 would be a key spot but this week it is one of the lower lined inside the distances on the week. Barlow has the speed advantage and I think he wins this fight, but he likely needs a Round 1 finish to hit the optimal lineup and it just isn't as likely as some of these other fighters. I'll have him in about 20% of my lineups. | |||||
| Brendson Ribeiro | 7800 | Zhang Mingyang | Somewhat-Risky | 102 | 120. |
| Ribeiro has a 6-inch reach advantage and on top of that he gets extremely reckless in his fights. He is going to push forward and likely get countered by Zhang, but if he connects with a clean shot, I wouldn't be shocked for Zhang to get KO'd. He'll be one of my highest owned underdogs because if he does win this fight, it's likely with a high score. | |||||
| Justin Tafa | 7700 | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Risky | 124 | 140. |
| Tafa has massive power and is going to march down Rogerio de Lima. Neither of these fighters throw much volume, and with Tafa not using wrestling he needs a first round finish, or he won't make the optimal lineup. He has actually been to a bunch of decisions in his career, so he has shown he can fight through some adversity and not crumble, which isn't something Marcos is known for. Tafa should be one of the higher owned underdogs on the slate so I'll have him in about 25% of lineups which I think should be in line with the field. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Geoff Neal | 7100 | Ian Garry | Somewhat-Risky | 190 | 320. |
| I'm betting Geoff Neal, I'm going to have him in a bunch of lineups, and I think he wins the fight straight up. Neal has more power than anyone Garry has faced, Neal has never been KO'd, and he even has the reach advantage by an inch here. It should be close, but at $7100 I think if someone is getting KO'd its Garry, and even if this fight goes to decision Neal could end up scoring 70-75 points which isn't terrible at his price if he is the only big underdog to win. | |||||
| Roman Kopylov | 7400 | Anthony Hernandez | Somewhat-Risky | 210 | 330. |
| Kopylov is the better striker and has been focusing on his takedown defense, so it'll be interesting to see how he does here against someone who is solely focused on wrestling. Fluffy has been hurt with body shots before and if Kopylov isn't too scared to let his kicks go, I could see him hurting Hernandez to the body. He's +330 to win inside the distance so you don't have to go wild with exposure, but I definitely want around 20% of him. | |||||
| Andrea Lee | 7300 | Miranda Maverick | Risky | 154 | 750. |
| I line this fight closer to a pick'em and Lee throws a lot of volume if she isn't controlled on the ground. If Lee wins this fight, she’s going to score 80+ even in a decision which isn't something that other fighters priced down here can do comfortably. She isn't going to win inside the distance, so to win the big tournaments she'll need to win and also avoid KOs from Geoff Neal and others so don't go too wild. She makes a decent cash game play since this probably goes 3 rounds and she scores 35-40pts in a loss. | |||||
| Henry Cejudo | 7600 | Merab Dvalishvili | Risky | 185 | 500. |
| I am not a fan of Cejudo and his "King of Cringe" persona, but he is talented. Merab has been rocked before so if he can separate from the takedowns and land clean shots it's possible, he can clip him, but if this goes to a decision Cejudo probably won't even score 65-70 in a win with all of the takedown attempts he'll be defending. I'm sprinkling in about 10% of Cejudo in my lineups. | |||||
| Josh Quinlan | 7500 | Danny Barlow | Risky | 170 | 275. |
| Quinlan looked aggressive on the contender series and for $7500 he has one of the higher ceilings of the underdogs. I don't think he really outclasses Barlow in any one area, but sometimes aggression is all you need to find the KO shot and Quinlan has the power needed to shut off Barlow's lights. | |||||
| Paulo Costa | 7200 | Robert Whittaker | Risky | 205 | 350. |
| Whittaker has a way of slowing down fights, and Costa has a way of making them chaos, so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. If someone gets KO'd here, I'm leaning towards it being Whittaker, but Costa hasn't fought in 18 months, so I don't even know what to expect out of him. Costa has the higher ceiling in this matchup, and while he doesn't hit it that frequently I'll still be including him in my lineups, which is more than I can say for Whittaker as I'm going to be prioritizing other high-priced fighters over him. | |||||
| Val Woodburn | 6900 | Oban Elliott | Risky | 250 | 350. |
| Woodburn was up a weight class, on two days’ notice in his UFC debut so he didn't get to make a good account of himself. He isn't as talented as Elliott, but he has more power and I expect him to be able to hold his own, especially early on in this fight. Elliott is a defensive liability and relies on his tough chin to get through punches, but if Val lands clean, I can see him putting Elliott out. I don't think he'll be more than 12% owned so if you are looking to get different in a lineup, he makes a great play. | |||||
| Carlos Vera | 6600 | Rinya Nakamura | Risky | 800 | +1,400 |
| Vera is 35 years old and facing an ultra-athletic specimen in Nakamura, so I don't think he does well. Nakamura is going to be more explosive and have better wrestling which I don't think Vera can deal with. I'm fading Vera, but if you want to play him, he'll come in under 5% owned and on the off chance he wins, you likely win money. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Topuria, Dern, Neal, Kopylov, Costa
Picks and Stats
Alexander Volkanovski | vs | Ilia Topuria |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 26-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-0-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 4 |
3 | Subs | 8 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
Robert Whittaker | vs | Paulo Costa |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 25-7-0 | Record | Record: 14-2-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 11 |
5 | Subs | 1 |
-250 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Geoff Neal | vs | Ian Garry |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 15-5-0 | Record | Record: 13-0-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 7 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
190 | Vegas Odds | -230 |
Merab Dvalishvili | vs | Henry Cejudo |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 16-4-0 | Record | Record: 16-3-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | 185 |
Anthony Hernandez | vs | Roman Kopylov |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 11-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 11 |
7 | Subs | 0 |
-258 | Vegas Odds | 210 |
0 | ||
Amanda Lemos | vs | Mackenzie Dern |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 13-3-1 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 0 |
3 | Subs | 7 |
-135 | Vegas Odds | 114 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima | vs | Justin Tafa |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 21-10-1 | Record | Record: 7-3-0 (1 NC) |
14 | Knockouts | 11 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
-148 | Vegas Odds | 124 |
Rinya Nakamura | vs | Carlos Vera |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 1 |
1 | Subs | 5 |
-135 | Vegas Odds | 800 |
Zhang Mingyang | vs | Brendson Ribeiro |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 16-6-0 | Record | Record: 15-5-0 (1 NC) |
10 | Knockouts | 9 |
6 | Subs | 6 |
-122 | Vegas Odds | 102 |
Josh Quinlan | vs | Danny Barlow |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 6-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
170 | Vegas Odds | -205 |
Oban Elliott | vs | Val Woodburn |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 5 |
3 | Subs | 0 |
-310 | Vegas Odds | 250 |
Andrea Lee | vs | Miranda Maverick |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 13-8-0 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 1 |
5 | Subs | 7 |
154 | Vegas Odds | -185 |