MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 296 Edwards vs Covington Top DraftKings & UFC DFS Picks
UFC 296 Edwards vs Covington takes place this weekend live from The T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas Nevada. The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:30PM on ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 8:00 PM on ESPN2/ESPN+ and finally at 10:00 PM the Main Card on ESPN+ PPV. The Main Event features Leon Edwards making his second title defense of the Welterweight Title against everyone’s favorite fighter to hate Colby Covington. The Co-Main Event features a Flyweight Title bout between Alexandre Pantoja and all action challenger Brandon Royval.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington | 8200/8000 | - | Stackability: Low | -162/ 135 | 250./500. |
| The final fight of the year should be absolute chaos, especially after all the trash talking at the press conferences this week. Edwards makes his second title defense against Colby Covington who is coming off a 600+ day layoff since he last fought against Jorge Masvidal. This matchup is similar for Edwards as his recent battles with Usman as he goes against a wrestler in Covington who is going to look to pressure and secure the clinch up against the cage. Edwards is the more talented striker by a mile, but if he isn't able to break away from Covington's attempts at wrestling this could be a close fight. Strictly off of how they win this fight, when they win it, I think Colby makes the better DraftKings play because if he wins it has to come by either a finish, or a ton of wrestling points. Edwards has fought in a five-round fight five times in his UFC career and has never scored over 100 DK points, and while at his salary he doesn't need to for him to make the optimal lineup, it is still a concern that he could win this fight and only score in the 80 range. I'll probably have Edwards in about 30% of my lineups while Covington makes the cut in 40-50%. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 9700 | Stephen Thompson | Somewhat-Safe | -600 | -175 |
| I have to put Shavkat up at the top even if I think this line is a little too wide. The formula to beat Thompson is to take him down, and I expect Rakhmonov to try to get it down quickly and find a submission. If this stays standing it is going to be close to even as Thompson is great at managing distance and slowing down the pace of the fight. | |||||
| Paddy Pimblett | 9400 | Tony Ferguson | Somewhat-Safe | -310 | 100. |
| For full disclosure I have a bet in already on Tony, but that doesn't mean I am fading Paddy here. Paddy has decent submission skills, and this aging version of Tony is a liability when it comes to wrestling defense. I don't think that Paddy is remotely deserving of a -310 line against a legend in Tony, but if he wins this fight, it probably comes with 3+ takedowns and a decent amount of control time and volume. If it stays on the feet, I won't want to be holding a Paddy ticket. | |||||
| Bryce Mitchell | 8900 | Josh Emmett | Somewhat-Safe | -225 | 275. |
| Bryce is another fighter in the top range who can wrestle and control fights leading to huge DK scores even in decisions. Emmett is a tough task for him but at nearly 39 years old this isn't the same version of Emmett that has been in the octagon in the past. The biggest red flag with Emmett is that he has already taken two brutal beatings this year, and while Bryce is a short notice replacement and isn't near the level of Yair or Topuria, it is still a dangerous matchup. Bryce probably lands 5-6 takedowns on his way to a decision win. | |||||
| Dustin Jacoby | 9100 | Alonzo Menifield | Moderate | -278 | 130. |
| Jacoby at his best can put up volume that Menifield can't keep up with, but Menifield has a ton of power that Jacoby is going to have to get through. Jacoby has clean striking, and I think he wins a decision here, but he needs to get the KO to pay off his price tag, so I'll have a little less of him than the others in this range. | |||||
| Casey O'Neill | 8700 | Ariane Lipski | Moderate | -185 | 240. |
| I don't think O'Neill has the ability to get a knockout here, but she throws a ton of volume. On a good day O'Neill can land 125+ strikes and a few takedowns leading to a massive score, but Lipski has shown improved takedown defense since her early run in the UFC, so this won't be an easy fight for her unlike her. With Pantoja priced directly below her I think she comes in a little under owned compared to what she would be on a normal card. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Alexandre Pantoja | 8600 | Brandon Royval | Moderate | -192 | -135 |
| Pantoja has five rounds to work with, and he is taking on someone he has already beaten. Royval is going to push a pace so if Pantoja wins, he has to score well on DraftKings, especially with the amount of wrestling he leans on. I am going to be 100% in on this fight for my lineups as I expect the winner to score at least 95, with Pantoja having upside of 125+ due to the amount of takedowns Pantoja can land over five rounds. | |||||
| Brandon Royval | 7600 | Alexandre Pantoja | Moderate | 160 | 215. |
| Royval moves forward from the opening bell and never stops until the fight is over. The winner of his fights has scored over 90 in all of his UFC fights except one time where he was taken down 8 times but ended up still winning the fight. I think Pantoja gets the submission win, but at his price I'll probably end up with about 30-40% Royval because if he does win, he is almost guaranteed to make the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Shamil Gaziev | 7800 | Martin Buday | Somewhat-Risky | 114 | 180. |
| I don't think Gaziev is very good, but he comes in with an undefeated record and a ton of early finishes so for winning a tournament he makes a decent play. With his upside, and only +114 for $7800 he should be one of the more popular dog players. The red flag is his resume is made up of a ton of heavyweights who weight 230, and his opponent Buday comes in at a full 265 lbs. for this fight. I'm going to be underweight to Gaziev to the field, all the numbers say he makes for a great play, but I don't like what my eyes see. I expect this to be sloppy after three minutes (Gaziev may flatline him within that time), and Buday pulls away down the stretch. | |||||
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 8300 | Cody Durden | Somewhat-Risky | -166 | 250. |
| I'm a fan of Tagir and his wrestling, but this is a tough task in Durden. The wrestling may cancel out, and if that is the case, I think Tagir is the better striker. I don't want to be too heavily invested in this fight as I think both guys are tough enough to get to make it to a decision, but I am leaning towards Tagir. | |||||
| Andre Fili | 8500 | Lucas Almeida | Somewhat-Risky | -175 | 180. |
| Fili doesn't take any easy fights, and although he's had a few bad losses recently I think he can win this one. He is the better wrestler by a mile and Almeida has shown zero ability to stop takedowns so they should be there. My concern is that Fili has only really relied on his wrestling in a few spots, so I don't want to be too confident that he sticks to the easy game plan. Also, how can you go wrong with the nick name "Touchy" Fili. | |||||
| Martin Buday | 8400 | Shamil Gaziev | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | 180. |
| If Gaziev does run out of gas after a few minutes Buday may be able to coast to a win, and possibly find a finish in the second or third round. Buday had a ton of finishes on his resume before coming into the UFC and while it hasn't been the prettiest, he does keep winning fights over legitimate fighters in the UFC. | |||||
| Cody Durden | 7900 | Tagir Ulanbekov | Risky | 140 | 550. |
| Durden gets takedowns in all of his fights, so I don't expect it to be any different here. Despite landing a ton of takedowns he has actually been submitted twice while on top of his opponent and only has one finish in five UFC wins of his own so don't mistake "wrestling" with "grappling". If he really does have the wrestling edge he is going to relentlessly shoot for takedowns, if he doesn't have the wrestling edge he will still relentlessly shoot for takedowns. Unlike some fighters who get discouraged if they get a few takedowns stuffed, he won't stop trying to get his opponent to the ground. He went 2/13 on takedown attempts in his UFC debut, and 11/18 in his best win in the UFC. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Ariane Lipski | 7500 | Casey O'Neill | Somewhat-Risky | 154 | 600. |
| Lipski has looked great in her last few fights, and this is a matchup she can win. She is going to get out volumed by Casey, but I expect her to land the more powerful shots. I don't think she gets a finish here, but with so many big dogs on the card just being able to get a win in this price range is going to be tough. | |||||
| Karol Rosa | 7400 | Irene Aldana | Somewhat-Risky | 160 | 900. |
| Rosa is another fighter who puts up more volume than her opponent but has almost zero chance to win this via KO. Aldana is tough, and at her best she is going to be able to outmuscle Rosa, but I wouldn't be shocked if this goes to decision and Rosa has landed 80-100 strikes and with the judging, we have seen recently it's tough to tell if they will prioritize the power or the volume. | |||||
| Tony Ferguson | 6800 | Paddy Pimblett | Risky | 250 | 425. |
| I'm team Tony in this fight. At $6800 he has a real chance to win this, and while he is on a six-fight losing skid I'm backing him here. I have a bet on him to win the fight, and I don't think it is that farfetched. At $6800 he isn't going to kill your lineups, and if we have seen anything from Tony it is that he is able to return fire on the feet and survive prolonged beatings. The only way this fight ends quickly is if Paddy can find a quick submission, but I don't think that is very likely. | |||||
| Alonzo Menifield | 7100 | Dustin Jacoby | Risky | 225 | 380. |
| Menifield has a ton of power, so he is live against anyone to land a KO. He has the best inside the distance of the fighters in this price range. If he doesn't get the knockout, he probably loses a decision here, but at only +380 to win ITD, I'll probably have him in about 15% of my lineups. | |||||
| Josh Emmett | 7300 | Bryce Mitchell | Risky | 185 | 350. |
| He fights out of Team Alpha Male which is notoriously been a decent wrestling camp, and he has had a full camp compared to Bryce coming in on short notice. If this fight stays standing, he probably looks like a -300 favorite, but if he gets taken down even once, he may get stuck on the ground until the round ends. He isn't as KO or bust as Menifield, but it does feel like we will know quickly if he can stop Bryce's wrestling and how the fight will play out. | |||||
| Brian Kelleher | 7200 | Cody Garbrandt | Risky | 154 | 300. |
| Cody has been "chinny" in the past but it is against fighters like Pedro Munhoz, TJ Dillashaw, and Kai Kara-France so I don't think Kelleher has the same power. Cody really slows down the pace of his fights using his movement so there is a legitimate chance that even a second round KO doesn't even score 90pts here. I haven't decided if I am fully fading this fight or not, but I really don't want too much of either guy. I lean towards Kelleher because he has never been KO'd before and while Cody has power, I don't want to bank on it here. | |||||
| Stephen Thompson | 6500 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | Risky | 440 | 1,100 |
| Thompson at his best moves well and lands precise strikes, but his wrestling defense has faded in recent years. On the feet this fight is close, but if it hits the ground he's going to get dominated. I doubt he KOs Rakhmonov so even in a win I think he has a pretty low ceiling, but there is a chance that even in a 60pt win he could be the piece you need at $6500. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Covington, Royval, Ferguson, Durden
Picks and Stats
Leon Edwards | vs | Colby Covington |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 21-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 17-3-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 4 |
3 | Subs | 4 |
-162 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
Alexandre Pantoja | vs | Brandon Royval |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 26-5-0 | Record | Record: 15-6-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 4 |
10 | Subs | 9 |
-192 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Shavkat Rakhmonov | vs | Stephen Thompson |
$9,700 | DFS Salary | $6,500 |
| Record: 17-0-0 | Record | Record: 17-6-1 |
8 | Knockouts | 8 |
9 | Subs | 1 |
-600 | Vegas Odds | 440 |
Tony Ferguson | vs | Paddy Pimblett |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
| Record: 26-9-0 | Record | Record: 20-3-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 6 |
8 | Subs | 9 |
250 | Vegas Odds | -310 |
Josh Emmett | vs | Bryce Mitchell |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 18-4-0 | Record | Record: 16-2-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 0 |
2 | Subs | 9 |
185 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
0 | ||
Alonzo Menifield | vs | Dustin Jacoby |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 14-3-1 | Record | Record: 19-7-1 |
8 | Knockouts | 4 |
3 | Subs | 2 |
225 | Vegas Odds | -278 |
Irene Aldana | vs | Karol Rosa |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 14-7-0 | Record | Record: 17-5-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 4 |
0 | Subs | 9 |
-192 | Vegas Odds | 160 |
Cody Garbrandt | vs | Brian Kelleher |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 24-14-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 6 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
-185 | Vegas Odds | 154 |
Casey O'Neill | vs | Ariane Lipski |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 16-8-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 12 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
-185 | Vegas Odds | 154 |
Tagir Ulanbekov | vs | Cody Durden |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 14-2-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-1 |
1 | Knockouts | 6 |
7 | Subs | 5 |
-166 | Vegas Odds | 140 |
Andre Fili | vs | Lucas Almeida |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 22-10-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 14-2-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 9 |
3 | Subs | 5 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | 145 |
Martin Buday | vs | Shamil Gaziev |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 13-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-0-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 7 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
-135 | Vegas Odds | 114 |
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