MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 294 Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2 Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC 294 Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2 kicks off from the Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi with the Prelims at 10:00AM on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card PPV at 2:00 PM on ESPN+ PPV. The main event features a rematch of one of the best championship fights of the year with Alexander Volkanovski taking a short notice fight against the reigning juggernaut Islam Makhachev. The co-main event features Khamzat Chimaev facing Kamaru Usman in his first fight up at middleweight. This card is going to be insane!
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 294 Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski | 8700/7500 | - | Stackability: Low | -250/ +200 | 140./475. |
| OOOOO BABY! Volk steps in on short notice to replace Charles Oliviera in the main event this week and I've never been more excited. The first matchup was razor close and I think this rematch would favor Volk if he had a full camp, but this short notice rematch scares me for him. Islam is going to have the wrestling advantage while Volk looks to keep it standing, but I think the first matchup gave Volk the confidence he needed to win here. I doubt Volk is prepared for a 25-minute fight, so I expect him to be much more aggressive and try to KO Islam here. Both of these guys make for great DraftKings plays but we saw in the first matchup that even in a five round fight neither of them would have broken 100 with the decision win so they aren’t must play on this slate. I'll have this fight in about 65-70% of my lineups. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Muhammad Mokaev | 9600 | Tim Elliott | Somewhat-Safe | -410 | 150. |
| Mokaev is going to go for takedowns, and Elliott gives them up pretty frequently. I'm high on this fight in general as I think the winner scores well and I'm confident that Elliott is going to come to fight. Mokaev is going to be giving up the advantage on the feet so I expect for Mokaev to win he needs to get probably 6-7 takedowns and 10 minutes of control time so that'll lead to a great score if he can get it. With other high-priced favorites on the card with better odds for a cheaper salary, I think Mokaev goes under owned. | |||||
| Ikram Aliskerov | 9500 | Warlley Alves | Somewhat-Safe | -600 | -250 |
| This is Aliskerov's fight to win as long as he can avoid Alves’ power within the first round. Aliskerov has better wrestling, better cardio and better striking, he just has to watch for the power. I'm more confident in him getting the finish inside the distance than Mokaev but there is a chance that Round 1 is close and he pulls away in R2/3 and finds a later finish. | |||||
| Viktoriia Dudakova | 9200 | Jinh Yu Frey | Somewhat-Safe | -550 | 150. |
| I think this line is way too wide, but Dudakova is going to try to wrestle as much as she can so I'm expecting a ton of control time. Frey is past her prime, so I don't think she'll have what it takes to stop the wrestling, and her chin has been suspected of late. If this fight stays standing at all Dudakova could be in for a quick awakening that she isn't a UFC level striker. | |||||
| Javid Basharat | 9400 | Victor Henry | Moderate | -575 | 225. |
| Henry pushes a pace that makes fighters have to up their work rate if they want to win the fight. If these stays standing for 15 minutes Henry is going to land 100+ ss so Javid better wrestle if he doesn't want to push an absurd pace. As a -575 favorite Javid should get it done, but personally I have a bet on Henry just because of the wild line and think this should be closer to Javid -300. | |||||
| Anshul Jubli | 9300 | Mike Breeden | Moderate | -270 | 120. |
| Jubli won some road to the UFC fights and ends up here as a -270 favorite against Mike Breeden. I don't trust him at all in this spot at all, but Breeden is 0-3 in the UFC so if there is any level of competition that he could beat, it is probably Breeden. His wrestling skills are OK, but he'll be my lowest owned fighter in the $9200+ range. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 8900 | Kamaru Usman | Moderate | -310 | -125 |
| Chimaev comes out like a mad man and sustains a wild pace throughout the fight. Usman is coming in at a new weight class, and on short notice so if Chimaev can't handle this version of Usman he is probably going to really struggle going forward. Usman does have great wrestling of his own, but I think this is a tough task for him. | |||||
| Nathaniel Wood | 9000 | Muhammad Naimov | Moderate | -310 | 200. |
| Wood as much talent as anyone in the division, but he responds really poorly to getting hit lately. Naimov is coming off of a huge upset win where he was losing until he landed some power shots to drop his opponent and I could see that happening here again. This is a weird week where all the way down to $8900 we get fighters who are -300 so while his odds would normally be a value at his price tag, on this slate they it isn't. | |||||
| Trevor Peek | 8200 | Mohammad Yahya | Somewhat-Risky | -166 | -120 |
| I expect Peek to be one of the highest owned fighters on the slate. As a -166 favorite for $8200 he is a great value, and he is a maniac in the first round. He has zero defense and just looks to march his opponents down, and while he took the loss in his last matchup this one is much easier. He shouldn't have to worry much about takedowns or submissions, and Yahya isn't much of a power striker. If this fight goes past the first round Yahya may be able to take over as Peek gasses. | |||||
| Said Nurmagomedov | 8800 | Muin Gafurov | Somewhat-Risky | -218 | 165. |
| Said is a very technical striker and has a strong submission game so while Muin's best path to winning this fight is probably taking Said down, he'll have to watch his neck. Said lacks the volume that the others in the top range offer so he'll need to get a finish, but I think this fight should be closer to -325 as I don't think Muin is very good, while Said has legitimate wins over some borderline top 15 fighters. | |||||
| Shara Magomedov | 8600 | Bruno Silva | Somewhat-Risky | -290 | -125 |
| Shara "The Pirate" Magomedov has had a wild path to the UFC after losing his eye, retiring, making his return and going on a long winning streak. (exactly how long I'm not sure because he took a ton of "modified rules - 30 second maximum allowed on group" fights that don't count on his record) His striking is smooth but the level of competition he has fought wasn't the highest level and from what I saw on the tape I could find, the submission skills he was facing weren't UFC caliber. Silva will probably look to keep it standing so hopefully that doesn't come into play here, and with this fight being lined at Under 1.5 rounds being -103 this fight should end early. I like Shara in this fight, but his -290 price tag is absolutely undeserved. | |||||
| Abu Azaitar | 7800 | Sedriques Dumas | Somewhat-Risky | 205 | 350. |
| Abu Azaitar hasn't fought in two years, hasn't won a fight in five, and has a ton of money so I don't think he is taking this fight unless he feels he could win it. Abu at his best has power and can land decent volume but I have no idea what version shows up on Saturday. Dumas is landing under 2 significant strikes per minute so the pace of this fight could be slow but at -205 to end inside the distance and at a reasonable price, you probably need someone from this fight. | |||||
| Mohammad Yahya | 8000 | Trevor Peek | Risky | 140 | 240. |
| Yahya has a kickboxing background and is from the UAE so he should get a boost from the home crowd, and while he probably gets in trouble early, if he can survive the early onslaught, he may have a chance to turn the fight when Peek tires in R2/3. He is a contrarian play and should only be considered in large tournaments, | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Bruno Silva | 7600 | Shara Magomedov | Somewhat-Risky | 235 | 400. |
| Silva was a +170 underdog against Alex Pereira so where these odds came from are beyond me. Silva has power and while he's been knocked down in 2 of the 3 fights since fighting Pereira, I think his striking is good enough to stay competitive here. On this slate with everyone being such large favorites, we are going to have to embrace fighters that make us uncomfortable and that starts with Silva. | |||||
| Kamaru Usman | 7300 | Khamzat Chimaev | Somewhat-Risky | 250 | 550. |
| Usman likely gets dusted early in this matchup, but if he can stop Chimaev's takedowns I wouldn't be surprised if he could use his own wrestling in rounds 2/3. I think Usman is likely to win only by decision, so he doesn't have a high ceiling, but if he does win at his price there is a good chance he is the lowest priced fighter to win. | |||||
| Johnny Walker | 7100 | Magomed Ankalaev | Risky | 280 | 500. |
| Ankalaev seems to fight down to his opponents, and Walker has been looking better and better lately. For as much power as these two have, I think it could become a technical striking battle that leads to a low output distance striking affair. Walker has a massive reach advantage here so if he can stay to the outside, avoid takedowns, and stay in his range he could take this fight. | |||||
| Mike Breeden | 6900 | Anshul Jubli | Risky | 220 | 400. |
| Jubli is the biggest question mark on the card, so I'll have a ton of Breeden. He is great odds value, and I don't think Jubli has the power to KO him early so in a close decision he could score well. I'll probably have about 20-25% Breeden. | |||||
| Tim Elliott | 6600 | Muhammad Mokaev | Risky | 320 | +1,100 |
| Elliott has faced the literal best of the best in this division (Demetrious Johnson), and he is getting completely disrespected at this price tag and line. Elliott probably has the striking advantage here and at his best has shown he can put up 100+ in a fight while also landing multiple takedowns of his own. Mokaev has been a massive favorite in all of his fights so it'll be interesting for him to come into a fight against someone who will give him some consistent pressure and adversity. I'll have about 20% Elliott. | |||||
| Jinh Yu Frey | 7000 | Viktoriia Dudakova | Risky | 410 | +1,400 |
| She isn't going to win inside the distance outside of a fluke, and her best days are probably behind her, but Dudakova has some abysmal striking. If Frey can avoid the takedowns this will be a close fight, but I'm just not sure she can actually avoid them as the smaller fighter. | |||||
| Victor Henry | 6800 | Javid Basharat | Risky | 425 | +1,100 |
| Henry throws more volume than just about any active UFC fighter, so he is a difficult matchup for anyone. He is nearly 40 years old so I don't know how much longer he can do it, but he hasn't shown any sign of slowing down. If Henry can avoid being taken down and being on his back for long periods of time this should be a close fight. | |||||
| Warlley Alves | 6700 | Ikram Aliskerov | Risky | 440 | 650. |
| Alves enters a new weight class, and I can't see that being good for his already terrible cardio. He has a ton of power, and if he smells blood in the water he is going to press forward and hunt the finish. He is the least likely fighter on the entire slate to win, but if he does win, he might score higher than anyone. I expect him to be the lowest owned fighter on the card so if you want to take a big contrarian stand, he's your guy. | |||||
Sample Lineup
GPP
Cash Games
Live Dogs
Volkanovski, Usman, Walker, Azaitar, Breeden
Picks and Stats
Islam Makhachev | vs | Alexander Volkanovski |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 24-1-0 | Record | Record: 26-2-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 13 |
11 | Subs | 3 |
Vegas Odds | -200 | |
Kamaru Usman | vs | Khamzat Chimaev |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 20-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-0-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 5 |
250 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Magomed Ankalaev | vs | Johnny Walker |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 18-1-1 | Record | Record: 21-7-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 16 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
-355 | Vegas Odds | 280 |
Ikram Aliskerov | vs | Warlley Alves |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 14-1-0 | Record | Record: 15-6-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 4 |
5 | Subs | 6 |
Vegas Odds | 440 | |
Said Nurmagomedov | vs | Muin Gafurov |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 17-3-0 | Record | Record: 18-5-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 10 |
5 | Subs | 7 |
-218 | Vegas Odds | 180 |
0 | ||
Tim Elliott | vs | Muhammad Mokaev |
$6,600 | DFS Salary | $9,600 |
| Record: 20-12-1 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 (1 NC) |
3 | Knockouts | 2 |
6 | Subs | 5 |
320 | Vegas Odds | -410 |
Mohammad Yahya | vs | Trevor Peek |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 (1 NC) |
9 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
140 | Vegas Odds | -166 |
Javid Basharat | vs | Victor Henry |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 14-0-0 | Record | Record: 23-6-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 6 |
6 | Subs | 8 |
-575 | Vegas Odds | 425 |
Abu Azaitar | vs | Sedriques Dumas |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 14-3-1 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 4 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
205 | Vegas Odds | -250 |
Mike Breeden | vs | Anshul Jubli |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 10-6-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 2 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
220 | Vegas Odds | -270 |
Nathaniel Wood | vs | Muhammad Naimov |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 20-5-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 5 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
-310 | Vegas Odds | 250 |
Viktoriia Dudakova | vs | Jinh Yu Frey |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 11-9-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 1 |
4 | Subs | 2 |
-550 | Vegas Odds | 410 |
Shara Magomedov | vs | Bruno Silva |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 11-0-0 | Record | Record: 23-9-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 20 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
-290 | Vegas Odds | 235 |
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