UFC 288 Sterling vs Cejudo kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00 PM on ESPN+, followed by the Main Prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8:00 and finally followed by the Main Card at 10:00 on ESPN+ PPV. The main event highlights the return of Henry Cejudo as he contends for the Bantamweight title that he vacated upon retirement back in 2020. Sterling beat Petr Yan  at UFC 259 to win the Bantamweight title back in 2021 and has since defended that title twice, beating Petr Yan in a rematch and then most recently knocking out T.J. Dillashaw at UFC 280.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

 

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 288 Sterling vs Cejudo

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Aljamain Sterling vs Henry Cejudo

8100/8100

-

Stackability: Low

-110/-110

+300/+280

A Bantamweight title fight highlights a PPV that should have a ton of fun fights on it. Sterling is the rangier, quicker striker while Cejudo is going to look to use his power and wrestling background to grind this fight out. I'm leaning towards Sterling due to being more active and having shown his toughness in multiple wars with Petr Yan but if a prime Cejudo shows up this is going to be a close fight. I'd personally line this fight closer to Sterling -175 as I think he gets it done by submission, but both of these fighters have a high ceiling, so Cejudo is also in play for tournaments. In cash games stacking this fight is recommended since it goes 4+ rounds so you should get close to 150pts combined from these fighters.
      

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Movsar Evloev

9400

Bryce Mitchell

Somewhat-Safe

-704 

#N/A

Evloev is facing a short notice replacement after Bryce Mitchell pulled out of the fight, and while he was already a large favorite, he now becomes the biggest one on the slate. He's shown the ability to score 115+ fantasy points using his chain wrestling in three round fights, so he has the ceiling that we need to win a GPP, and also the safest play for cash games. He should be 50%+ owned in GPPs, but it's for good reason.
Khaos Williams

9500

Ronaldo Bedoya

Somewhat-Safe

-333 

-145 

Williams has the power to end this fight early, and he has a massive striking advantage here. He doesn't have the best volume so if the fight gets past Round 1, he might not make the optimal lineup even if he does win by KO, so he isn't as safe as Evloev is.
Drew Dober

9200

Matt Frevola

Somewhat-Safe

-225 

-140 

Dober and Frevola have both been great for DraftKings scoring, either scoring well or giving up a big score. Dober has way more power than Frevola, and an iron chin but he needs to keep this fight standing if he wants to win it. Frevola is going to come forward and try to wrestle if he's smart which would be disaster for Dober as he hasn't shown any ability to keep a fight standing against high level opponents. I think Dober eventually finds Frevola's chin sometime early in the fight, but both sides of this fight are playable for tournaments. I don't think either of these fights should be used in cash games.
Ikram Aliskerov

9100

Phil Hawes

Moderate

-200 

+100 

Ikram needs to survive the first round with Hawes and eventually take over with his wrestling if he wants to have a chance here. Hawes has 5-7 minutes of power before he looks completely zapped, mix that in with a subpar chin and there is a good chance Aliskerov eventually finishes this fight. I hate picking these fighters who need to survive early power, but in this case, I think Aliskerov is the winner.
Claudio Ribeiro

8900

Joseph Holmes

Moderate

-170

-125

Ribeiro has power early on, but his gas tank is really questionable. Ribeiro has enough power to knock out anyone in this division, but if Holmes can avoid the big shots early, he has a good chance of outwrestling Ribeiro down the stretch. I'm playing Ribeiro in some GPP lineups knowing that if he doesn't find the early KO, I'm probably losing the fight.
      

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Parker Porter

8600

Braxton Smith

Moderate

-170 

+100 

Porter is a low-level heavy weight, and Smith throws like a mac truck for about 3 minutes so this could be a disaster but I'm going to be heavy on Porter this week. Porter is more technical, has better wrestling, better cardio and we get him at a reasonable $8700 so he fits in a lot of lineups. If he can secure even one takedown in the first round, I think it's enough to tire out Smith and he should score huge in a win.
Charles Jourdain

8700

Kron Gracie

Moderate

-175 

+125 

Jourdain takes on the enigma that is Kron Gracie. Jourdain's one weakness has been that he gets taken down by everyone, even fighters who don't have much of a wrestling background, but this week if he gets taken down even once he could be getting subbed by Gracie. Jourdain is light years ahead of Gracie in striking and Gracie is coming off a three-year layoff so this fight could be all one-way traffic as long as Jourdain keeps it standing. 
Jessica Andrade

8800

Yan Xiaonan

Somewhat-Risky

-175 

+165 

Andrade is coming off of a terrible fight against Erin Blanchfield, but she was taking the fight on short notice and had also fought only four weeks earlier in a three-round war against Lauren Murphy. If Andrade looks how she did against Lauren Murphy, and mixes in her wrestling she wins this fight easily. If Andrade the Blanchfield fight wasn't a fluke and she comes out looking tentative, she's going to get pieced up.
Rafael Estevam

8300

Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Somewhat-Risky

-188 

+230 

Estevam might be able to outwrestle in this matchup, and by the time round 3 comes around he's definitely going to be able to dictate the fight. Zhalgas is always in tightly contested matchups, and he's tough to knockout so this Estevam is probably going to come in as one of the lower owned favorites so he's a great fit to pair with lineups that start with highly owned fighters.
Belal Muhammad

8000

Gilbert Burns

Somewhat-Risky

+100 

+425 

This co-main event is a five rounder so while I think it goes to decision, with the fighters being only 8200/8000 it's going to be tough for them to not end up on the optimal lineup. Belal does his best work once he wears down his opponents, and in this matchup that might be having to circle the outside for the first round or two. I think Belal has enough wrestling to keep this fight standing if Burns goes for takedowns, and if he wants to take the fight to the ground once Burns starts to get tired, I think he can really take advantage of it. I think he's a top cash game player and makes for a good GPP matchup as well. 
Gilbert Burns

8200

Belal Muhammad

Somewhat-Risky

-125 

+210 

Burns has more power and is more explosive than Belal, but I don't like him coming off a fight only a few weeks ago against Jorge Masvidal. Burns never really had the best cardio, and this short turnaround won’t help that. I'll be leaning towards Belal, but Burns needs to be considered in GPP lineups and he can also be part of a cash game stack if you want to stack up the main and co-main events.
      

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Matt Frevola

7000

Drew Dober

Somewhat-Risky

+205 

+375 

If Frevola wins this fight, he wins it big, so he makes a good play for tournaments. His wrestling is better than Dober’s, but he really falls in love with his hands sometimes and if that’s the case this week then he's going to get knocked out.
Virna Jandiroba

7700

Marina Rodriguez

Somewhat-Risky

+110 

+400 

Virna has the wrestling advantage against the striker Rodriguez, but she really needs to get inside the lengthy jabs of Rodriguez which could be a tough task for her. She's a great odds value play, but if she wins it’s probably a low volume decision with a small amount of wrestling mixed in so she doesn't have the highest ceiling.
Kron Gracie

7500

Charles Jourdain

Risky

+150 

+200 

Gracie's lineage and his skills match up pretty well, he's exactly what you would expect from a Gracie. If you give him an inch on the ground, he's going to take a mile and snatch up a choke. He only needs Jourdain to make one mistake to end this fight, and while I don't want to back a one trick pony, he has one of the highest ceilings of any underdog.
Braxton Smith

7600

Parker Porter

Risky

+140 

+165 

Smith has three minutes of cardio, and then he's going to get dusted. He's not technical at all, he can't wrestle well, and he doesn't do anything particularly great, but he does attempt to get a first round KO every time he steps in that cage. He's +165 to win Inside the Distance as a +140 underdog and at $7600 that's a great price. I'll have more Porter, but Porter is hittable so Smith could be the dog to break the slate.
Devin Clark

7200

Kennedy Nzechukwu

Risky

+163 

+500 

Clark is another fighter who won’t find a KO or submission, but if he wins this fight, it's because he kept Kennedy pinned up against the cage or on the ground for the majority of it. Clark has some nice trips in his arsenal and if he scores one early it could really zap the power out of Kennedy. At only $7200 he's one of the lowest priced fighters that I think has a realistic chance of winning his fight.
Phil Hawes

7100

Ikram Aliskerov

Risky

+165

+275 

Hawes has massive power and has a college wrestling national championship, so his skills are top notch. His chin and cardio are what normally let Hawes down. If he needs to defensively wrestle at all in the first round, he doesn’t make it out of the second round as he'll be completely gassed. With that said he can KO Ikram with one punch in the first, so he needs to be considered in your lineups if you want a boom or bust option.
Joseph Holmes

7300

Claudio Ribeiro

Risky

+145 

+260 

Holmes has pretty good submissions, and has better cardio that Ribeiro but he needs to get passed the power for him to have any chance here. Skill for skill he's the better fighter so I'll have some, but this is a fight that’s setup for him to get KO'd in Round 1.




 

Sample Lineup

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Description automatically generated with medium confidence

Live Dogs

Belal, Frevola, Gracie, Holmes, Clark

Stats and Picks

   

Aljamain Sterling

vs

Henry Cejudo

$7,700

DFS Salary

$8,100

Record: 22-3-0 

Record

Record: 16-2-0 

3

Knockouts

8

8

Subs

0

-110 

Vegas Odds

-110

   

Belal Muhammad

vs

Gilbert Burns

$8,000

DFS Salary

$8,200

Record: 22-3-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 22-5-0 

5

Knockouts

6

1

Subs

9

+100 

Vegas Odds

+145 

   

Jessica Andrade

vs

Yan Xiaonan

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

Record: 24-10-0 

Record

Record: 16-3-0 (1 NC) 

9

Knockouts

7

8

Subs

0

-175 

Vegas Odds

+150

   

Movsar Evloev

vs

Diego Lopes

$9,400

DFS Salary

$6,800

Record: 16-0-0 

Record

Record: 21-5-0 

3

Knockouts

7

4

Subs

11

-704 

Vegas Odds

+500 

   

Kron Gracie

vs

Charles Jourdain

$7,500

DFS Salary

$8,700

Record: 5-1-0 

Record

Record: 13-6-1 

0

Knockouts

8

5

Subs

4

+150 

Vegas Odds

-175 

 

0

 

Drew Dober

vs

Matt Frevola

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

Record: 26-11-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 10-3-1 

13

Knockouts

3

6

Subs

3

-225 

Vegas Odds

+188 

   

Kennedy Nzechukwu

vs

Devin Clark

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

Record: 11-3-0 

Record

Record: 14-7-0 

8

Knockouts

6

0

Subs

9

-188 

Vegas Odds

+163 

   

Khaos Williams

vs

Rolando Bedoya

$9,500

DFS Salary

$6,700

Record: 13-3-0 

Record

Record: 14-1-0 

7

Knockouts

4

1

Subs

3

-333 

Vegas Odds

+250

   

Marina Rodriguez

vs

Virna Jandiroba

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

Record: 16-2-2 

Record

Record: 18-3-0 

6

Knockouts

1

1

Subs

13

-138 

Vegas Odds

+110 

   

Braxton Smith

vs

Parker Porter

$7,600

DFS Salary

$8,600

Record: 5-1-0 

Record

Record: 13-8-0 

5

Knockouts

5

0

Subs

3

+140 

Vegas Odds

-170 

   

Phil Hawes

vs

Ikram Aliskerov

$7,100

DFS Salary

$9,100

Record: 12-4-0 

Record

Record: 13-1-0 

8

Knockouts

4

2

Subs

5

+165

Vegas Odds

-200 

   
 

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