MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 288 Sterling vs Cejudo Top DFS Picks
UFC 288 Sterling vs Cejudo kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00 PM on ESPN+, followed by the Main Prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8:00 and finally followed by the Main Card at 10:00 on ESPN+ PPV. The main event highlights the return of Henry Cejudo as he contends for the Bantamweight title that he vacated upon retirement back in 2020. Sterling beat Petr Yan at UFC 259 to win the Bantamweight title back in 2021 and has since defended that title twice, beating Petr Yan in a rematch and then most recently knocking out T.J. Dillashaw at UFC 280.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 288 Sterling vs Cejudo
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Aljamain Sterling vs Henry Cejudo | 8100/8100 | - | Stackability: Low | -110/-110 | +300/+280 |
| A Bantamweight title fight highlights a PPV that should have a ton of fun fights on it. Sterling is the rangier, quicker striker while Cejudo is going to look to use his power and wrestling background to grind this fight out. I'm leaning towards Sterling due to being more active and having shown his toughness in multiple wars with Petr Yan but if a prime Cejudo shows up this is going to be a close fight. I'd personally line this fight closer to Sterling -175 as I think he gets it done by submission, but both of these fighters have a high ceiling, so Cejudo is also in play for tournaments. In cash games stacking this fight is recommended since it goes 4+ rounds so you should get close to 150pts combined from these fighters. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Movsar Evloev | 9400 | Bryce Mitchell | Somewhat-Safe | -704 | #N/A |
| Evloev is facing a short notice replacement after Bryce Mitchell pulled out of the fight, and while he was already a large favorite, he now becomes the biggest one on the slate. He's shown the ability to score 115+ fantasy points using his chain wrestling in three round fights, so he has the ceiling that we need to win a GPP, and also the safest play for cash games. He should be 50%+ owned in GPPs, but it's for good reason. | |||||
| Khaos Williams | 9500 | Ronaldo Bedoya | Somewhat-Safe | -333 | -145 |
| Williams has the power to end this fight early, and he has a massive striking advantage here. He doesn't have the best volume so if the fight gets past Round 1, he might not make the optimal lineup even if he does win by KO, so he isn't as safe as Evloev is. | |||||
| Drew Dober | 9200 | Matt Frevola | Somewhat-Safe | -225 | -140 |
| Dober and Frevola have both been great for DraftKings scoring, either scoring well or giving up a big score. Dober has way more power than Frevola, and an iron chin but he needs to keep this fight standing if he wants to win it. Frevola is going to come forward and try to wrestle if he's smart which would be disaster for Dober as he hasn't shown any ability to keep a fight standing against high level opponents. I think Dober eventually finds Frevola's chin sometime early in the fight, but both sides of this fight are playable for tournaments. I don't think either of these fights should be used in cash games. | |||||
| Ikram Aliskerov | 9100 | Phil Hawes | Moderate | -200 | +100 |
| Ikram needs to survive the first round with Hawes and eventually take over with his wrestling if he wants to have a chance here. Hawes has 5-7 minutes of power before he looks completely zapped, mix that in with a subpar chin and there is a good chance Aliskerov eventually finishes this fight. I hate picking these fighters who need to survive early power, but in this case, I think Aliskerov is the winner. | |||||
| Claudio Ribeiro | 8900 | Joseph Holmes | Moderate | -170 | -125 |
| Ribeiro has power early on, but his gas tank is really questionable. Ribeiro has enough power to knock out anyone in this division, but if Holmes can avoid the big shots early, he has a good chance of outwrestling Ribeiro down the stretch. I'm playing Ribeiro in some GPP lineups knowing that if he doesn't find the early KO, I'm probably losing the fight. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Parker Porter | 8600 | Braxton Smith | Moderate | -170 | +100 |
| Porter is a low-level heavy weight, and Smith throws like a mac truck for about 3 minutes so this could be a disaster but I'm going to be heavy on Porter this week. Porter is more technical, has better wrestling, better cardio and we get him at a reasonable $8700 so he fits in a lot of lineups. If he can secure even one takedown in the first round, I think it's enough to tire out Smith and he should score huge in a win. | |||||
| Charles Jourdain | 8700 | Kron Gracie | Moderate | -175 | +125 |
| Jourdain takes on the enigma that is Kron Gracie. Jourdain's one weakness has been that he gets taken down by everyone, even fighters who don't have much of a wrestling background, but this week if he gets taken down even once he could be getting subbed by Gracie. Jourdain is light years ahead of Gracie in striking and Gracie is coming off a three-year layoff so this fight could be all one-way traffic as long as Jourdain keeps it standing. | |||||
| Jessica Andrade | 8800 | Yan Xiaonan | Somewhat-Risky | -175 | +165 |
| Andrade is coming off of a terrible fight against Erin Blanchfield, but she was taking the fight on short notice and had also fought only four weeks earlier in a three-round war against Lauren Murphy. If Andrade looks how she did against Lauren Murphy, and mixes in her wrestling she wins this fight easily. If Andrade the Blanchfield fight wasn't a fluke and she comes out looking tentative, she's going to get pieced up. | |||||
| Rafael Estevam | 8300 | Zhalgas Zhumagulov | Somewhat-Risky | -188 | +230 |
| Estevam might be able to outwrestle in this matchup, and by the time round 3 comes around he's definitely going to be able to dictate the fight. Zhalgas is always in tightly contested matchups, and he's tough to knockout so this Estevam is probably going to come in as one of the lower owned favorites so he's a great fit to pair with lineups that start with highly owned fighters. | |||||
| Belal Muhammad | 8000 | Gilbert Burns | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +425 |
| This co-main event is a five rounder so while I think it goes to decision, with the fighters being only 8200/8000 it's going to be tough for them to not end up on the optimal lineup. Belal does his best work once he wears down his opponents, and in this matchup that might be having to circle the outside for the first round or two. I think Belal has enough wrestling to keep this fight standing if Burns goes for takedowns, and if he wants to take the fight to the ground once Burns starts to get tired, I think he can really take advantage of it. I think he's a top cash game player and makes for a good GPP matchup as well. | |||||
| Gilbert Burns | 8200 | Belal Muhammad | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +210 |
| Burns has more power and is more explosive than Belal, but I don't like him coming off a fight only a few weeks ago against Jorge Masvidal. Burns never really had the best cardio, and this short turnaround won’t help that. I'll be leaning towards Belal, but Burns needs to be considered in GPP lineups and he can also be part of a cash game stack if you want to stack up the main and co-main events. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Matt Frevola | 7000 | Drew Dober | Somewhat-Risky | +205 | +375 |
| If Frevola wins this fight, he wins it big, so he makes a good play for tournaments. His wrestling is better than Dober’s, but he really falls in love with his hands sometimes and if that’s the case this week then he's going to get knocked out. | |||||
| Virna Jandiroba | 7700 | Marina Rodriguez | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +400 |
| Virna has the wrestling advantage against the striker Rodriguez, but she really needs to get inside the lengthy jabs of Rodriguez which could be a tough task for her. She's a great odds value play, but if she wins it’s probably a low volume decision with a small amount of wrestling mixed in so she doesn't have the highest ceiling. | |||||
| Kron Gracie | 7500 | Charles Jourdain | Risky | +150 | +200 |
| Gracie's lineage and his skills match up pretty well, he's exactly what you would expect from a Gracie. If you give him an inch on the ground, he's going to take a mile and snatch up a choke. He only needs Jourdain to make one mistake to end this fight, and while I don't want to back a one trick pony, he has one of the highest ceilings of any underdog. | |||||
| Braxton Smith | 7600 | Parker Porter | Risky | +140 | +165 |
| Smith has three minutes of cardio, and then he's going to get dusted. He's not technical at all, he can't wrestle well, and he doesn't do anything particularly great, but he does attempt to get a first round KO every time he steps in that cage. He's +165 to win Inside the Distance as a +140 underdog and at $7600 that's a great price. I'll have more Porter, but Porter is hittable so Smith could be the dog to break the slate. | |||||
| Devin Clark | 7200 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | Risky | +163 | +500 |
| Clark is another fighter who won’t find a KO or submission, but if he wins this fight, it's because he kept Kennedy pinned up against the cage or on the ground for the majority of it. Clark has some nice trips in his arsenal and if he scores one early it could really zap the power out of Kennedy. At only $7200 he's one of the lowest priced fighters that I think has a realistic chance of winning his fight. | |||||
| Phil Hawes | 7100 | Ikram Aliskerov | Risky | +165 | +275 |
| Hawes has massive power and has a college wrestling national championship, so his skills are top notch. His chin and cardio are what normally let Hawes down. If he needs to defensively wrestle at all in the first round, he doesn’t make it out of the second round as he'll be completely gassed. With that said he can KO Ikram with one punch in the first, so he needs to be considered in your lineups if you want a boom or bust option. | |||||
| Joseph Holmes | 7300 | Claudio Ribeiro | Risky | +145 | +260 |
| Holmes has pretty good submissions, and has better cardio that Ribeiro but he needs to get passed the power for him to have any chance here. Skill for skill he's the better fighter so I'll have some, but this is a fight that’s setup for him to get KO'd in Round 1. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Belal, Frevola, Gracie, Holmes, Clark
Stats and Picks
Aljamain Sterling | vs | Henry Cejudo |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,100 |
| Record: 22-3-0 | Record | Record: 16-2-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 8 |
8 | Subs | 0 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
Belal Muhammad | vs | Gilbert Burns |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 22-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 22-5-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 9 |
+100 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Jessica Andrade | vs | Yan Xiaonan |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 24-10-0 | Record | Record: 16-3-0 (1 NC) |
9 | Knockouts | 7 |
8 | Subs | 0 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
Movsar Evloev | vs | Diego Lopes |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 16-0-0 | Record | Record: 21-5-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 7 |
4 | Subs | 11 |
-704 | Vegas Odds | +500 |
Kron Gracie | vs | Charles Jourdain |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 5-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-6-1 |
0 | Knockouts | 8 |
5 | Subs | 4 |
+150 | Vegas Odds | -175 |
0 | ||
Drew Dober | vs | Matt Frevola |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 26-11-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 10-3-1 |
13 | Knockouts | 3 |
6 | Subs | 3 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | +188 |
Kennedy Nzechukwu | vs | Devin Clark |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-7-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 9 |
-188 | Vegas Odds | +163 |
Khaos Williams | vs | Rolando Bedoya |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-1-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 4 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
-333 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
Marina Rodriguez | vs | Virna Jandiroba |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 16-2-2 | Record | Record: 18-3-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 1 |
1 | Subs | 13 |
-138 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
Braxton Smith | vs | Parker Porter |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 5-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-8-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 5 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
+140 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
Phil Hawes | vs | Ikram Aliskerov |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 13-1-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 5 |
+165 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Check out our list of the best, and most trusted sports betting and fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state.
Keep the UFC MMA DFS winning going! Check out our partners over on PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy, Monkey Knife Fight & join our FREE Discord!