MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 286 Edwards vs Usman Top DFS Picks
UFC 286 Edwards vs Usman kicks off with the Early Prelims at 1:00 PM on ESPN+ followed by the Prelims at 3:00PM and finally the Main Card on ESPN+ PPV at 5:00 PM.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 286 Edwards vs Gane
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman | 7300/8900 | - | Stackability: Low | -245/+205 | +275/+425 |
| The highly anticipated trilogy match heads to Edwards backyard in England in what should be an exciting matchup. I don't think much has changed since the last matchup, Usman was clearly up 3-1 and was -10000 on the live line before getting KO'd late in the fifth round so I'll be on him heavy here. Edwards is live for the KO but it really is tough for him to win rounds if he can't stop the wrestling of Usman. The last matchup was at altitude in Salt Lake City so it is possible Edwards was tired after R1 which is why he couldn't stop the takedowns anymore, but I'm going to bank on Usman winning rounds and coasting to a decision. Both fighters are live in GPP, and in cash this is a great stack since it is favored to go more than 4 rounds. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Muhammad Mokaev | 9700 | Jafel Filho | Somewhat-Safe | -800 | -145 |
| Mokaev has his eyes set on becoming the youngest champion in UFC history, and while he is young, he is very skilled especially in positional wrestling. My only concern with Mokaev is he rarely throws any strikes on the ground unless he knows he has the position secured. All of his fights so far have been one way traffic for the most part and I expect the same here, he has one of the highest ceilings on the slate and even in a decision win he should score 100+. | |||||
| Juliana Miller | 9400 | Veronica Hardy | Somewhat-Safe | -425 | -110 |
| The TUF champion loves to pressure and push her wrestling onto her opponents and Hardy is the perfect opponent for her to put up a high score. Hardy hasn't had much success in the UFC, but she does have a win by armbar that she threw up as a hail mary from bottom position, and outside of that I don't think Miller has much to worry about. I expect Miller to win this by round 2 ground and pound or submission. | |||||
| Jake Hadley | 9300 | Malcolm Gordon | Somewhat-Safe | -450 | -180 |
| Hadley isn't my typical high priced play because he lacks wrestling and doesn't have elite volume so he really needs to find a first round finish, or late second round finish to pay off his salary. Malcolm Gordon is hittable and has shown some serious chin issues, so as long as Hadley keeps it standing and avoids getting into a grappling contest with Gordon he has a good chance to finish. | |||||
| Jack Shore | 9500 | Makwan Amirkhani | Moderate | -550 | -110 |
| I ranked $9500 Shore a little lower than his price would expect, and it isn't because of his ceiling because he can score really well in this spot, but Makwan is someone who normally comes out in the first round and has a really good five minutes. If Shore survives the first five minutes of the fight he should be able to wear on Makwan and find the finish late in round 2 or 3. | |||||
| Sam Patterson | 9000 | Yanal Ashmouz | Moderate | -275 | -110 |
| Patterson is absolutely massive for 155lbs standing at 6'3 with a 79 inch reach he should be able to keep his range and land on Ashmouz. Ashmouz has decent takedowns so if he closes the distance he could be able to get the fight to the ground but he doesn't have the ability to find a submission so over the course of three rounds Patterson is going to be landing the more powerful shots. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Christian Duncan | 8700 | Dusko Todorovic | Moderate | -225 | -135 |
| When you look at Duncan's record of 7-0 you may think he doesn't have much experience, but he has fought much better competition than some of these 15-2 fighters that we see coming into the UFC. Duncan is the Cage Warriors Champion and he looks to make his UFC debut in front of his hometown fans so I expect him to really press here. I want as much of this fight as a whole as I can since I think either Duncan flatlines Dusko, or Dusko can get his wrestling going and pull of the upset as the underdog. | |||||
| Casey O'Neill | 8500 | Jennifer Maia | Moderate | -185 | +300 |
| King Casey faces her toughest competition here so I'm not expecting her to score her normal 115 pts here but at $8500 we don't need that. Maia can be taken down currently owning a 55% takedown defense, and while everyone will point to "Jennifer Maia took down Valentina Shevchenko" it's worth noting Maia has never landed more than one takedown in any of her UFC fights, so she isn't going to come out here and look to wrestle much. Maia is tough to finish so if you are making 10 lineups don't go all in on O'Neill but she has the ceiling to be one of the highest scoring fighter on the slate. | |||||
| Chris Duncan | 8000 | Omar Morales | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | +145 |
| The other C. Duncan on DraftKings so don't confuse the two. Duncan throws volume that is in line with Justin Gaethje so his fights are all extremely exciting, but he isn't that technical. Duncan is there to hit, and get hit so you probably want someone from this fight as I don't think it gets out of Round 2. I expect Duncan to be the higher owned fighter in the matchup and for good reason, but if you feel like you need to get a little different in your lineup then playing Morales isn't the worst bet either. | |||||
| Joanne Wood | 8600 | Luana Carolina | Somewhat-Risky | -175 | +400 |
| Wood has a massive wrestling advantage here so hopefully she uses it, but if she doesn't this fight could be competitive on the feet. Wood has faced multiple title challengers so her recent record isn't great, but Carolina is a major step down from that competition. I expect Wood to get this fight to the ground and hopefully find the finish but at least she should secure the win here. | |||||
| Lerone Murphy | 8300 | Gabriel Santos | Somewhat-Risky | -185 | +275 |
| Murphy faces a new opponent in Santos on short notice in this matchup, and while I think Murphy is talented, he just doesn't throw enough volume to score well on DraftKings. Santos is on short notice traveling into Murphy's backyard so a finish isn't impossible, but I'm going to be looking at other fighters in this price range. | |||||
| Ludovit Klein | 8400 | Jai Herbert | Somewhat-Risky | -210 | +110 |
| Klein may be one of the more popular fighters on this slate but I'm not buying it. Klein has power and can KO almost anyone in the division but he is hesitant to throw multiple strikes unless he knows his opponent is hurt. Herbert doesn't throw much volume either so it is going to be interesting to see who is going to be leading this fight, but there is a chance that at 25%+ ownership Klein scores under 75 in a decision win. Herbert has fought some tough competition such as Ilia Topuria, and rocked Topuria with a head kick in Round 1 but wasn't able to find the finish and eventually lost the fight. If Herbert had finished Topuria he would likely be a decisive favorite in this matchup. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Dusko Todorovic | 7500 | Christian Duncan | Somewhat-Risky | +185 | +330 |
| High risk, high reward. Dusko may be put to sleep early on in this fight, but he has the upside to be the piece to win you your tournament. I'll be playing plenty of him knowing that if he doesn't get the takedowns he is going to get finished and bust my lineups. | |||||
| Justin Gaethje | 7400 | Rafael Fiziev | Somewhat-Risky | +175 | +275 |
| I'm a sucker for Justin Gaethje and this fight should be a banger. Gaethje is ultra talented, but he never learned to pace himself, which gives him issues when he runs into big shots. Fiziev has a ton of power but he fights similar to Gaethje where he is fine giving a punch to land a punch which normally leads to close rounds. I think this fight should be lined closer to a pick'em, but I expect Gaethje to come out quick and be leading this fight up until the point he gets rocked. If he survives the fight I think he can win the decision, but Fiziev is extremely durable so I don't think he can find the finish. | |||||
| Roman Dolidze | 7100 | Marvin Vettori | Risky | +210 | +300 |
| I don't think Dolidze wins this fight, but he is one of the rare fighters who is always looking to find the finish which is easier said than done vs the ultra-durable Vettori. He probably wins this fight only 20% of the time but when he does win it, it’s by finish so at $7100 he could be worth a shot. | |||||
| Makwan Amirkhani | #N/A | #N/A | Risky | +390 | +600 |
| Makwan is a similar play to Dolidze, but he has no gas tank so he really is only live in Round 1. I'll be overweight on Makwan at his cheap price, but if it gets outside of Round 1, even if he has top control the whole first round he is going to gas out. | |||||
| Bryan Barberena | 7000 | Gunnar Nelson | Risky | +280 | +450 |
| Barberena is a major step down for Nelson so I'm not expecting a win here, but Bryan at least goes out and fights for your money throwing a ton of volume while the fight stays standing. He is one of the rare underdogs this low down that actually has an advantage in one area of the fight, but if Gunnar takes him down even just one time he may get choked out. | |||||
| Veronica Hardy | 6800 | Juliana Miller | Risky | +340 | +800 |
| Hardy is the veteran in this matchup and has pulled off some wild armbars from bottom position in the past so she may be able to do it again here. In Woman's MMA, especially younger fighters coming off of layoffs you can see massive improvements like we saw with Lipski last week. | |||||
| Jafel Filho | 6500 | Muhammad Mokaev | Risky | +550 | +900 |
| I won't be playing any Filho, but he does have some pretty decent submission skills so it's possible he finds a hail mary submission against Mokaev here. He should come in about 5% owned so if you really want to get outside of the box you can try your luck here. | |||||
| Malcolm Gordon | 6900 | Jake Hadley | Risky | +325 | +750 |
| Gordon missed weight pretty drastically, and I expect him to try to wrestle here so that could be to his advantage. He is chinny, but if this fight plays out in prolonged stretches on the ground he has an advantage which is more than you can say about most of the fighters priced around him. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Edwards, Gaethje, Santos, Amirkhani
Stats and Picks
Leon Edwards | vs | Kamaru Usman |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 20-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 20-2-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 9 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
+200 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
Justin Gaethje | vs | Rafael Fiziev |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 23-4-0 | Record | Record: 12-1-0 |
19 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
+175 | Vegas Odds | -210 |
Gunnar Nelson | vs | Bryan Barberena |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 18-5-1 | Record | Record: 18-9-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 11 |
12 | Subs | 2 |
-350 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
Jennifer Maia | vs | Casey O'Neill |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 20-9-1 | Record | Record: 9-0-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 3 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
+150 | Vegas Odds | -185 |
Marvin Vettori | vs | Roman Dolidze |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 18-6-1 | Record | Record: 12-1-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 7 |
9 | Subs | 3 |
-275 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
0 | ||
Jack Shore | vs | Makwan Amirkhani |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6700 |
| Record: 16-1-0 | Record | Record: 17-8-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 1 |
8 | Subs | 12 |
-550 | Vegas Odds | +390 |
Chris Duncan | vs | Omar Morales |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
Sam Patterson | vs | Yanal Ashmouz |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 10-1-1 | Record | Record: 6-0-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 3 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
-275 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
Muhammad Mokaev | vs | Jafel Filho |
$9,700 | DFS Salary | $6500 |
| Record: 9-0-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 14-2-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 5 |
4 | Subs | 8 |
-800 | Vegas Odds | +550 |
Lerone Murphy | vs | Gabriel Santos |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 11-0-1 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 3 |
0 | Subs | 4 |
-185 | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
Christian Duncan | vs | Dusko Todorovic |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
+210 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
Jake Hadley | vs | Malcolm Gordon |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 5 |
5 | Subs | 6 |
-450 | Vegas Odds | +325 |
Jake Hadley | vs | Malcolm Gordon |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 5 |
5 | Subs | 6 |
-450 | Vegas Odds | +325 |
Joanne Wood | vs | Luana Carolina |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 15-8-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 2 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Jai Herbert | vs | Ludovit Klein |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 19-4-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 5 |
5 | Subs | 6 |
+165 | Vegas Odds | -210 |
Veronica Hardy | vs | Julianna Miller |
$6800 | DFS Salary | $9400 |
Record: 6-4-1 | Record | Record: 3-1-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 1 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
+340 | Vegas Odds | -450 |
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