MMA DFS Playbook UFC 284 February 11: Top DraftKings Picks

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski

9500/6700

-

Stackability: Moderate

-380/+300

-110/+600

This matchup of the #1 and #2 pound for pound fighters in the UFC should be action packed if it lasts. Islam is going to be the much stronger fighter and he is going to go to his wrestling early and often. If Volkanovski can keep it standing he has a chance to win this fight as the more polished fighter, and while his get up game has always been great I don't think he's ever felt the power that Islam is going to bring. I think Islam wins this fight by late submission or decision, but both fighters should be used in GPPs since in a win either of them will likely make the optimal lineup.

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Jack Jenkins

9300

Don Shainis

Somewhat-Safe

-340 

-135 

Jenkins is well rounded and has great cardio in this matchup vs Don Shainis. Jack has been in multiple fights that have gone three rounds and the cardio is his biggest weapon here. Shainis was recently caught by an early submission in a short notice matchup, and while Jenkins isn't a potent finisher I think he gets it done here. Even if this hits the judges’ scorecards Jenkins should be able to do enough to score 85+ points.

Zubaira Tukhugov

$9600

#N/A

Somewhat-Safe

-580

+130

Tukhugov has power in his hands, great wrestling, and good cardio so what is not to love about him in this matchup? While Tukhugov has the advantages, he has a tendency to slow down fights which doesn't fair well as the highest priced fighter on the slate. If you are making one lineup I'd lean towards Islam at this top range, but in GPPs. especially in lineups with Volkanovski he could be the key to shipping a GPP.

Jack Della Maddalena

9200

Randy Brown

Risky

-305 

-120 

Jack Della is going to be the crisper striker in this matchup, but he does have to be careful about Brown's length when staying to the outside. I think Jack finds the finish by knockout early in round but wouldn't be shocked if this see's the scorecards. If this fight goes to decision I don't expect Jack to score as well as other's in this range so he is KO or bust at this price, but for -120 to win by finish I'll have him in a bunch of lineups

Loma Lookboonmee

9000

Elise Reed

Moderate

-315 

+330 

Loma has the wrestling advantage here, but she continues to be a low volume striker and one that prioritizes position over trying to find the finish. For DK I am looking elsewhere since I don't think she scores over the 100-pts necessary she is going to need to land on the optimal lineup.

Kleydson Rodrigues

8800

Shannon Ross

Moderate

-325 

+110 

Kleydson faces off against hometown fighter Ross in what should be a fun fight for as long as it lasts. Rodrigues didn't have much pace in his last fight in a close decision but I think he has the clear advantage here in one major area and that's how he takes damage. In multiple tapes I watched Ross didn't deal well with leg kicks and in his last fight he was knocked down 3 times in 2 rounds so if Rodrigues lands clean I think he finds the finish here.

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Yair Rodriguez

8500

Josh Emmett

Moderate

-180 

+240 

In the five round co-main event we see Yair Rodriguez take on Josh Emmet in what should be an action-packed fight. Rodriguez is the quicker, cleaner striker and should be able to point away on Emmett for most of the fight. Emmett has a clear edge in the wrestling department, but he is sometimes unwilling to lean on it. I think Yair finds the finish late, or wins a close decision but either way he has a massive floor and a huge ceiling at only $8500. 

Jimmy Crute

8600

Alonzo Menifield

Moderate

-190 

-115 

Crute is young and talented but is on a bit of a rough stretch in his last couple of fights. Skill for skill Crute should have the advantage everywhere and I think he eventually gets this fight to the ground and finds a finish. At only $8600 and -190 I expect him to be one of the fighters with the highest ownership outside the main event and co-main event.

Justin Tafa

8400

Parker Porter

Somewhat-Risky

-130 

+150 

Tafa has power and if he finds Porter's chin this fight could end quickly. Porter throws a ton of volume for a heavyweight so if this fight goes to decision, it'll be tough for Tafa to win unless he throws a ton in return.

Shane Young

8300

Blake Bilder

Somewhat-Risky

-140

+200

Young is aggressive and moves a ton in his fights but sometimes it doesn't amount to much DraftKings scoring. Bilder should be a perfect matchup for Young since they both like to stay in their opponents faces. This fight should be one of the higher paced matchups from the mid-range so I am expecting one of these fighters here to score well.

Josh Culibao

8200

Melsik Baghdasaryan

Somewhat-Risky

-110

+330 

Culibao has some power and decent wrestling but never seems to be urgent enough in any of his fights. He has knocked down multiple opponents in his career but doesn't seem to have that killer instinct to actually get on top and find the finish. Stay away in single entry tournaments, but for large GPPs he should be low owned and has a ceiling if one of his shots puts out Melsik. 

Josh Emmett

7700

Yair Rodriguez

Somewhat-Risky

+155 

+350 

The other half of the co-main event so he has five rounds to work with for scoring. Emmett should be able to get his wrestling going at some point during the fight, so while he will not land as much on the feet, he should be able to score well. In a win he likely scores 85+ points and has a path to the optimal lineup.

Alonzo Menifield

7600

Jimmy Crute

Risky

+160 

+215 

Menifield has a massive ceiling, but he throws almost no volume so without a finish he isn't going to score well. Due to his ability to be able to find a KO he always ends up with a ton of ownership so for that reason I'll be underweight to the field.

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Francisco Prado

7500

Jamie Mullarkey

Somewhat-Risky

+225 

+330 

Prado is only 20 years old, and he has fought in some weird arenas from what I saw on tape but his inexperience may be just what he needs to win this fight. Early aggression is his best path to victory because the longer it goes the more it favors Mullarkey.

Modestas Bukauskas

7300

Tyson Pedro

Somewhat-Risky

+190 

+380 

There is one way to beat Pedro and that is the extend the fight. Pedro is 9-1 in his career in fights that end in Round 1 or bust so if Modestas can push the fight to the later rounds he should be able to find more success striking. 

Elise Reed

7200

Loma Lookboonmee

Risky

+260 

+800 

Reed may have the striking advantage here, but she gets her wrestling game exploited here. Reed throws a enough volume to make for a punt play in cash games, or a long shot GPP play.

Shannon Ross

7400

Kleydson Rodrigues

Risky

+270 

+600 

Ross is going to come forward and likes to use his wrestling so he if his chin holds up, he could find the win. He losses this fight more times than he wins, but in a win he has a good chance to score well.

Randy Brown

7000

Jack Della Maddalena

Risky

+255 

+650 

Brown needs to stay at range to find the win, so even in a win I do not expect him to find the finish.

Don Shainis

6900

Jack Jenkins

Risky

+280 

+550 

Shainis needs to be aggressive early here before Jack can get his game going. We did not see much from him in his UFC debut since it only lasted 30 seconds so maybe he can surprise us with some major improvements.

Elves Brenner (Oliveira)

6600

Zubaira Tukhugov

Risky

+440

+800

Brenner needs to find a submission in here to get the win.  Tukhugov may try to wrestle which should benefit Brenner’s chances of winning.

Islam Makhachev

vs

Alexander Volkanovski

$9,500

DFS Salary

$6,700

Record: 23-1-0 

Record

Record: 25-1-0 

4

Knockouts

12

11

Subs

3

-380 

Vegas Odds

+300

Yair Rodriguez

vs

Josh Emmett

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

Record: 15-3-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 18-2-0 

5

Knockouts

6

3

Subs

2

-180 

Vegas Odds

+155 

Jack Della Maddalena

vs

Randy Brown

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

Record: 13-2-0 

Record

Record: 16-4-0 

11

Knockouts

6

1

Subs

5

-305 

Vegas Odds

+255 

Justin Tafa

vs

Parker Porter

$8,400

DFS Salary

$7,800

Record: 5-3-0 

Record

Record: 13-7-0 

5

Knockouts

5

0

Subs

3

-130 

Vegas Odds

+110 

Jimmy Crute

vs

Alonzo Menifield

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 12-3-0 

Record

Record: 13-3-0 

5

Knockouts

10

4

Subs

2

-190 

Vegas Odds

+160 

Tyson Pedro

vs

Modestas Bukauskas

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

Record: 9-3-0 

Record

Record: 13-5-0 

4

Knockouts

9

5

Subs

2

-225 

Vegas Odds

+190 

Josh Culibao

vs

Melsik Baghdasaryan

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

Record: 10-1-1 

Record

Record: 7-1-0 

5

Knockouts

6

0

Subs

2

-110

Vegas Odds

-110 

Shannon Ross

vs

Kleydson Rodrigues

$7,400

DFS Salary

$8,800

Record: 13-6-0 

Record

Record: 7-2-0 

6

Knockouts

3

1

Subs

2

+270 

Vegas Odds

-325 

Jamie Mullarkey

vs

Francisco Prado

$8,700

DFS Salary

$7,500

Record: 15-5-0 

Record

Record: 11-0-0 

10

Knockouts

5

3

Subs

6

-265 

Vegas Odds

+225 

Jack Jenkins

vs

Don Shainis

$9,300

DFS Salary

$6,900

Record: 10-2-0 

Record

Record: 12-4-0 

5

Knockouts

8

3

Subs

2

-340 

Vegas Odds

+280 

Loma Lookboonmee

vs

Elise Reed

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

Record: 7-3-0 

Record

Record: 6-2-0 

1

Knockouts

2

0

Subs

0

-315 

Vegas Odds

+260 

Shane Young

vs

Blake Bilder

$8,300

DFS Salary

$7,900

Record: 13-6-0 

Record

Record: 7-0-1 

6

Knockouts

1

4

Subs

4

-140

Vegas Odds

+120

Zubaira Tukhugov

vs

Elves Brenner

$9,600

DFS Salary

$6600

Record: 20-5-1 

Record

Record: 13-3-0 

7

Knockouts

1

1

Subs

11

-580

Vegas Odds

+440