MMA DFS Playbook UFC 279 Chimaev vs Diaz: Top DraftKings DFS Picks
UFC 279 Ferguson vs Diaz kicks off with the early prelims at 6PMEST on ESPN+, followed by the prelims on ESPN at 8:00PM. The PPV Main Card kicks off at 10PM
Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 279 Ferguson vs Diaz
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Nate Diaz vs Tony Ferguson | 6600/7200 | - | Stackability: High | #N/A | #N/A |
| With the shakeup in the fight order and opponents we get two massive underdogs now priced in the mid range. Ferguson comes in around -150 while Diaz comes in at +130. It is going to be hard to avoid a fighter from this five round fight as the floor and ceiling for both of them are massive. The only way neither of these fighters end up in the optimal lineup is for multiple underdogs outside of it to score 100+ points. Stacking is viable in all formats. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jailton Almeida | 9500 | Anton Turkalj | Somewhat-Safe | -660 | -280 |
| Almeida comes into this catch weight fight on a ten fight win streak that he will look to extend here. Jailton has shown that he is a powerful grappler and I look for him to use it here. His opponent Anton comes off the contender series where he landed 11 takedowns, so this fight likely hits the ground at some point and Jailton will find the finish. | |||||
| Khamzat Chimaev | 9600 | Kevin Holland | Somewhat-Safe | -520 | |
| Chimaev gets a tougher opponent with this change, but is still a sizeable favorite. Holland is used to fighting up at 185 lbs so he may be able to handle Chimaev’s strength better than past opponents. Holland has always been susceptible to the takedown and I don’t see that changing. The fight is scheduled for five rounds and Chimaev likely breaks the slate if his cardio holds up. | |||||
| Jake Collier | 9100 | Chris Barnett | Somewhat-Safe | -410 | +100 |
| Collier should look to out volume Barnett as the cleaner striker here with his reach advantage. Barnett is massively undersized for the heavyweight division at only 5'9 but he is extremely athletic for the size. Collier likely costs to a win here unless Barnett can land one of his crazy spinning kicks or elbows. | |||||
| Hakeem Dawodu | 8900 | Julian Erosa | Moderate | -215 | +190 |
| Hakeem missed weight by 3.5 lbs and looked terrible on the scales. Skill for skill he is better and faster than Erosa, but the pace Erosa pushes may eventually break Dawodu if he can’t find the early finish. | |||||
| Li Jingliang | 9000 | Daniel Rodriguez | Massive | +120 | |
| Leach goes from a massive favorite to a slight underdog with the opponent change. His wrestling is better than Rodriguez so he could score well in a win, but it is very hard to find room in a lineup for a $9000 underdog. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Ion Cutelaba | 8600 | Johnny Walker | Moderate | -200 | -125 |
| One side of this fight likely ends up on the optimal lineup. Cutelaba has been extremely effective with his wrestling owning a 62% takedown accuracy which is the highest mark in the UFC. Cutelaba is susceptible to gassing or running into a KO/submission, so he isn't really trustworthy, but in a win he'll score well. | |||||
| Irene Aldana | 8800 | Macy Chiasson | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | +250 |
| Aldana has some speed and power in her hands so I expect her to win the striking exchanges on the feet, but Macy is durable and will look to grind and slow this fight down. The fight was moved to a catchweight of 140 llbs at the last minute and Aldana came in at 137lbs so it looks like Chiasson was having issues getting down to the necessary weight. I'm backing Aldana in this fight but think she likely doesn't score well on DraftKings. | |||||
| Yohan Lainesse | 8000 | Darian Weeks | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +190 |
| Lainesse has power in his hands and finishes most of his wins early so that could happen here. His gas tank is suspect, and Weeks has never been KO'd so he'll need to land early to get the job done here. KO or bust. Weeks has an opportunity to score well if the fight does get extended. | |||||
| Jamie Pickett | 8300 | Denis Tiuliulin | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | +225 |
| Pickett should be able to get his wrestling going if he can avoid Tiuliulin's power early. Pickett doesn't have great volume normally but he acknowledged his gas tank issues and that he has been working on them so its possible he takes a step up here. | |||||
| Heili Alatengheili | 8400 | Chad Anheliger | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | #N/A |
| Alateng has decent power in his hand but I'm not sure he can finish Anheliger standing. Chad has only been finished by submission (5 times) in his career, and Heili has a few submission wins on his record so if it hits the ground, he may be able to get the submission. This fight likely hits the judges’ scorecards, so I'll look elsewhere in GPPs. | |||||
| Kevin Holland | 8700 | Khamzat Chimaev | Massive | +380 | |
| Holland goes from being my favorite fighter in this range to basically unplayable due to his opponent change. This fight is five rounds and Holland is tough to finish so he could score well in a loss, but for $8700 he needs to find the KO and I’m not expecting him to come through. I think the line is a little wide and would personally line it close to +275, but Holland is an avoid for me. Him and Li Jingliang will be the two lowest owned fighters on the slate | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 7500 | Li Jingliang | Somewhat-Safe | -150 | |
| Rodriguez along with the main event fighters will be the highest owned fighters on the slate. Rodriguez throws massive volume and is currently the owner of the most significant strikes landed per minute in the UFC. As long as he avoids Leach’s power and neutralizes the wrestling he should be able to score well in a win. | |||||
| Johnny Walker | 7600 | Ion Cutelaba | Somewhat-Risky | +170 | +225 |
| Johnny is KO or bust but Ion has been reckless in the past so he should have at least one oppurtunity to land a big shot. | |||||
| Julian Erosa | 7300 | Hakeem Dawodu | Risky | +185 | +380 |
| Erosa will look to push the pace here and while his skills as good as Dawodu's he does know how to grind. Hakeem looked drained on the scale missing weight by 3.5 lbs so it’s possible his chin doesn't hold up. | |||||
| Macy Chiasson | 7400 | Irene Aldana | Risky | +140 | +500 |
| Chiasson should have some size in this fight and look to grind the fight against the cage. Unlikely to find a finish or score big on DraftKings. She will need a perfect runout from the fighters around her to end up on the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Chris Barnett | 7100 | Jake Collier | Risky | +330 | +600 |
| Heavyweight volatility is real. Barnett throws some wild techniques, such as the spinning wheel kick he landed on Gian Villante, that could KO just about anyone in the UFC. He'll need to find the finish, or he is going to get picked apart on the feet. | |||||
| Danyelle Wolf | 7000 | Norma Dumont | Risky | +320 | +750 |
| An Olympic level boxer and Golden Gloves Champion, Wolf will have the striking advantage at range if she can keep the fight standing. There isn't going to be many places Wolf has the advantage, but at $7000 at least she has a path to victory. | |||||
| Anton Turkalj | 6700 | Jailton Almeida | Risky | +490 | +700 |
| Anton is undefeated and scored 11 takedowns in his Contender Series fight so normally he would come into his UFC debut as a target on DraftKings, his issue here is Almeida is a monster on the mat. Likely the lowest owned fighter on the slate and for good reason. He needs to hope Almeida gasses for him to have a chance here. | |||||
| Elise Reed | 7700 | Melissa Martinez | Risky | +145 | +550 |
| This fight should be a striker vs striker battle where Reed should have a chance. Martinez is undefeated in MMA, while Reed has been finished twice in the UFC. Not a great play if you are trying to win a tournament, but she could be ok for cash games. | |||||
Sample DFS Lineup
Live Dogs
Diaz/Ferguson, Rodriguez, Erosa
Stats and Picks
Tony Ferguson | vs | Nate Diaz |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 26-7-0 | Record | Record: 21-13-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 4 |
8 | Subs | 15 |
-150 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
Li Jingliang | vs | Daniel Rodriguez |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 19-7-0 | Record | Record: 16-2-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 8 |
4 | Subs | 4 |
+130 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
Kevin Holland | vs | Khamzat Chimaev |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $9600 |
| Record: 23-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-0-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 5 |
6 | Subs | 5 |
+420 | Vegas Odds | -520 |
Irene Aldana | vs | Macy Chiasson |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 13-6-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 2 |
3 | Subs | 2 |
-165 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
Johnny Walker | vs | Ion Cutelaba |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 18-7-0 | Record | Record: 16-7-1 (1 NC) |
15 | Knockouts | 12 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
+170 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
0 | ||
Hakeem Dawodu | vs | Julian Erosa |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 13-2-1 | Record | Record: 27-10-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 11 |
0 | Subs | 12 |
-215 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
Jailton Almeida | vs | Anton Turkalj |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 16-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 5 |
10 | Subs | 2 |
-660 | Vegas Odds | +490 |
Denis Tiuliulin | vs | Jamie Pickett |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 10-6-0 | Record | Record: 13-7-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 8 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
+110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
Jake Collier | vs | Chris Barnett |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 13-7-0 | Record | Record: 22-8-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 17 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
-410 | Vegas Odds | +330 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Norma Dumont | vs | Danyelle Wolf |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 1-0-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 0 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
-390 | Vegas Odds | +320 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Chad Anheliger | vs | Alatengheili |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8400 |
| Record: 12-5-0 | Record | Record: 15-8-2 |
7 | Knockouts | 5 |
3 | Subs | 3 |
+140 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
Melissa Martinez | vs | Elise Reed |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 5-2-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 2 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
-170 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Darian Weeks | vs | Yohan Lainesse |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 5-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
-120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
PrizePicks Props
Chimaev U8.5 minutes
Holland O12.5 minutes
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