Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs +105 Total: 6

This game has an over-under sitting at six tonight, which is the higher of the two games on the slate, so let’s look here for some more offense, and thus, better props to pick from. The Bruins are up 3-2 in this series with a chance to close things out on the road and avoid the always tense Game 7 in the playoffs. With that said, it’s do or die for Toronto, who won Game 6, and is now back on home ice to tie the series up. Both of these teams come in with higher implied goal totals than either team from the other game, so we should be looking a more open game, which presents the upside while looking at props. The Maple Leafs finished the regular season with the third most goals scored, while the Bruins finished with the fifth most goals scored, so plenty of offensive upside in this one, as we’ve seen all series long.

Game Play Predictions

Boston Bruins

  • The Bruins have outshot the Maple leafs 176 to 143 this series, a trend which should continue tonight, as the Bruins have an expected Corsi For of 48, which is highest on the slate.
  • The Maple Leafs allowed 2.8 goals per game this season, while the Bruins scored 3.2 goals per game.
  • The Bruins have four different players who have recorded five or more points this series.
  • David Pastrnak has scored two or more points in three of the five games this series, and also leads the team with 23 shots this series.
  • Torey Krug is also being very productive, with three multi-point games, and 20 shots on goal, which is second highest on the team.
  • Patrice Bergeron had points in the first three games of this series, while having no points in the most recent two games.
  • Riley Nash is third on the team with 18 shots in this series, but only has one point in five games, could be in for some positive regression with the chances he is getting.
  • The Bruins have the best power-play percentage of any team in the playoffs at 35%, which comes from six goals on 17 chances.
  • Boston as a team has only taken 14 penalties as a team this post season, which second fewest of any team.

Players To Watch

David Pastrnak  He has been the Bruins top player all series and is leading the team with 11 points. He is on the first forward line and first power-play, so has big time goal equity given the amount of ice time he sees. 
Patrice Bergeron Bergeron is the captain, and one of their best players, but hasn’t tallied a point in two games. Look for him to bounce back in a game where they can lock up the series. Also on the first forward line and the first power-play, along with averaging about three shots per game this series. - Bergeron also leads the team with 52 face-offs won this series, compared to the Maple Leafs top player with only 43. 
Brad Marchand Marchand has two or more shots in each game this series, and while he might be a pest on the ice, he can be very productive with the power-play unit. He only has one points over the last three games, so look for him to get on the board tonight. 

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • The Maple Leafs only have two players who have scored five or more points this series, compared to the Bruins four.
  • Auston Matthews, arguably the best player for Toronto, only has two points and a -4 rating, but leads the team with 18 shots on goal.
  • Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly are tied for the team lead with five assists each, and are both still seeing time on the first power-play unit.
  • Goalie Frederik Andersen is giving up 3.85 goals per game, and has a very low saver percentage sitting at .895%.
  • The Maple Leafs have a Corsi against of 49 over the past month, which is the worst of any team on the slate, compared to the Bruins corsi against of 42.
  • The Maple Leafs have an average of 10.6 penalty minutes per game compared to the Bruins 5.6 minutes per game.
  • James van Riemsdyk has scored all three of his goals in this series on the power-play, which are the only power-play goals the Maple Leafs’ have.

Players To Watch

Auston Matthews The future star of this team has been vastly underwhelming this series, and should look to points on the board in a must win game. He leads the team with 18 shots, but only has one goal to show for it in this series. Hopefully time in the first forward line and second power-play can get him out of this down slope. 
Mitchell Marner Marner and James van Riemsdyk have been a great pairing on the first power-play, and should look to continue that trend tonight. They’ve both taken 11 or more shots this series and have four or more points. 
Frederik Andersen Andersen has had a rough go at things this series, and truth be told, can’t get much worse. Giving up nearly four goals per game, he is bound to see a ton of shots, just needs to get in front of them this time. 
Jake Gardiner Gardiner leads the team in ice time per game at nearly 22 minutes, but only has one point to show for it. With him on the second power-play, he is due for some positive regression and get a point on the board tonight.