Wednesday’s EPL DFS slate is interesting because it mostly features teams that struggle to score goals but allow a lot of goals. Six of the bottom eight teams in goals scored play Wednesday, and Tottenham is the only team in action in the top nine on goals scored. And even Tottenham’s attack is suspect considering they were shut out by Aston Villa Sunday and they have just two goals total in their last three road games at Crystal Palace.
Even with that being said, I don’t love any of the goal keepers in the slate. West Ham is sixth in goals allowed, best of any team on the slate. Crystal Palace is second but they play Tottenham. You can pay up for Emiliano Martinez or Lukasz Fabianski if you want but I think the best bet for this slate is to punt your keeper and one attacker and then load up on mid-to-high-priced attackers.
EPL DFS Top Plays January 4
Goalkeepers
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Vicente Guaita
CRY
TOT
4500
6.76
8
10.66
Crystal Palace is 1-2-0 in its last three home games against Tottenham, with no more than one goal allowed in each game. Guaita probably won't get many saves but I love his price on FanDuel and he is playable on DraftKings as well.
Illan Meslier
LEE
WHU
4900
5.72
10
9.41
West Ham has allowed the seventh-most saves and have scored the third-fewest goals this season. Only one team has fewer clean sheets than Leeds but I like Meslier's chances at a win and a handful of saves. Only four teams have more saves this season.
Emiliano Martinez
AVL
WOL
5400
6.33
12
9.33
Robin Olsen started against Tottenham on Sunday even though Martinez was available following the World Cup, so just make sure Martinez is starting before you lock him in. I would prefer Martinez to Olsen but both are playable at home against Wolverhampton. I think Wolves's attack is a bit improved under Julen Lopetegui but this is still a team that has scored the fewest goals in the league and been shut out in over half of its games. Aston Villa has won three of its last four games after a dreadful start and this is my pick if you're chasing a win and a clean sheet.
Forwards
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Samuel Edozie
SOU
NFO
5200
3.37
8
4.52
This is as much about the opponent and the lack of options on his team as anything else. That being said, Edozie has at least 7.5 DK fantasy points in both starts this season and we will gladly take that production again even if his price has risen a bit.
Jarrod Bowen
WHU
LEE
8700
10.99
16
11.99
Bowen has as good a chance as anyone on his team of scoring, and while that may be damning with faint praise, we are getting an awfully high ceiling to go with his modicum of upside. You can play Gianluca Scamacca if you need to save some money but Bown is the West Ham attacker I want, especially for DraftKings.
Leon Bailey
AVL
WOL
6700
7.65
12
9.43
I was disappointed to see Bailey's price rise on DraftKings but he is still a potential bargain on FanDuel. He has goals in two of his last five starts with 16 crosses in that span. He is a safe forward for DraftKings and a punt play for FanDuel GPPs.
Harry Kane
TOT
CRY
9500
17.29
23
27.16
I am worried that the schedule is catching up to him, but at the end of the day he has created one fewer chance than Son Heung-Min and scored 10 more goals. You can chance another goal from Rodrigo if you want but if I'm paying up for an attacker on FanDuel, I'm playing Kane.
Rodrigo
LEE
WHU
7600
11.73
19
19.09
I thought he was too expensive on FanDuel until I saw the rest of the slate and realized there isn't anyone I am excited to pay up for. Rodrigo had five goals in four games before the break and while he was quiet against Newcastle and Manchester City, those are two of the three stingiest defenses in the league. This is a better matchup and Rodrigo is as good a bet as anyone in this slate to score a goal.
Midfielders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Dejan Kulusevski
TOT
CRY
8000
9.89
17
14.13
Kulusevski is a cheaper alternative to Kane and Son, but perhaps not for long. He has six crosses, six chances created and four shots in two starts since returning from his injury and while I like him on both sites, he is probably safer on FanDuel.
Ainsley Maitland-Niles
SOU
NFO
3300
2.74
10
7.01
He is averaging 7.6 DK fantasy points per 90 minutes in hils last five games and he played at least 89 minutes in each of his last two starts. Only three teams are averaging more crosses than Nottingham Forest and Maitland-Niles should send in a few at a bargain price.
James Ward-Prowse
SOU
NFO
9000
13.54
17
16.56
I can't bring myself to trust Che Adams to score, but Nottingham Forest has allowed the second-most goals and fourth-most crosses this season. After a slow start, Ward-Prowse has attacking returns in each of his last three games.
Morgan Gibbs-White
NFO
SOU
8400
10.02
15
11.71
I don't understand why Gibbs-White is this cheap on either site. In his last three games he has 14 crosses, nine chances created, 12 shots (four on goal) and two goals. Gibbs-White is the best player for fantasy on his team and this is a very nice matchup.
Lucas Paqueta
WHU
LEE
6900
8.05
15
13.62
I think Paqueta is going to start getting attacking returns sooner or later but he doesn't need to in order to be a good value on FanDuel. Paqueta has at least 14.2 FD fantasy points in five of his last six games. Only three teams have allowed more goals against per game than Leeds.
Midfielders
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Jack Harrison
LEE
WHU
5200
10.07
13
12.71
I still think Harrison is too cheap, especially after he had five crosses and two chances created against Newcastle. West Ham is solid defensively but this is still a decent matchup and unless you want to take a big swing on a Rodrigo goal, Harrison is the best Leeds attacker for fantasy.
Defenders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Serge Aurier
NFO
SOU
5400
7.87
13
13.77
I would pivot to Renan Lodi if i needed to save $500 or if Morgan Gibbs-White is out, but Aurier is more likely to send in crosses from open play and Southampton is 19th out of 20 teams in fantasy points allowed to defenders.
Nelson Semedo
WOL
AVL
3600
3.22
8
7.21
I really want to pu Rayan Ait-Nouri in this spot but he costs $1,100 more and he hasn't started yet for manager Julen Lopetegui. Semedo has been quiet the last two games but I'm going to blame that on the matchups. I think Wolves want to work the ball out wide and Semedo would be a really nice value if they are able to do that.
Lucas Digne
AVL
WOL
5900
8.32
11
12.96
There aren't any value defenders on the DK slate but there aren't really any safe ones either. Digne has not been as consistent as he was last season but he did have 11 crosses and six chances created in his last two games. I'm willing to be that continues even if we have to pay a premium to do it.
Joe Worrall
NFO
SOU
2500
1.94
8
9.43
His fantasy numbers looks bad because he came off the bench for most of October but he is averaging 14.2 FD fantasy points since rejoining the starting lineup. Southampton has allowed the second-most clearances this season, making Worrall a great value play.
Craig Dawson
WHU
LEE
2900
3.14
9
9.84
Dawson has double-digit FD fantasy points in four of his last five games, and that is all I am looking for at his price.
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Pascal Struijk
LEE
WHU
4700
8.07
14
17.50
This isn't usually the type of defender I pay up for on FanDuel but with all the mid-priced attackers I like, Struijk is easily affordable. He has at least 15 FD fantasy points in five straight games and West Ham is fourth in clearances allowed this season. Liam Cooper and Rasmus Kristensen are good pivots if you need to save some money.
EPL DFS Core Plays January 4
Draftkings Core Plays
Top Tier
Morgan Gibbs-White
$8,400
James Ward-Prowse
$9,000
Mid Tier
Leon Bailey
$6,700
Lucas Digne
$5,900
Value Tier
Ainsley Maitland-Niles
$3,300
Nelson Semedo
$3,600
Fanduel Core Plays
Top Tier
Harry Kane
$23
Rodrigo
$19
Mid Tier
Morgan Gibbs-White
$15
Lucas Paqueta
$15
Value Tier
Leon Bailey
$12
Joe Worrall
$8
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