EPL DFS Playbook January 3rd: Aleksandar Mitrovic In a Great Matchup
Now that the World Cup is behind us, the Premier League fixtures are coming fast and furious. The eight teams in Tuesday’s EPL DFS slate are playing their third game in eight days and between injuries and rest, we should probably expect more rotation than usual. Arsenal has a chance to extend their lead in the table to 10 points over Manchester City while Newcastle could insert themselves into the title race with a win. Manchester United is two points behind Newcastle in fourth, and they will need to take care of business against a Bournemouth side that is just two points clear of the relegation zone. Fulham and Brighton will look to continue their surprising runs to the top half of the table against Leicester and Everton respectively, while the latter two teams try to stay out of the relegation fight themselves. The only real huge favorite is Manchester United but there could be a lot of goals in the other games, so choosing a couple of players from each game could be the best way to go.
EPL DFS Playbook for January 3rd
Goalkeepers
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Robert Sanchez | BHA | EVE | 5100 | 5.82 | 11 | 9.13 |
| Only two teams have scored fewer goals than Everton and Brighton has kept a clean sheet in a quarter of its games. I would probably play Sanchez over Aaron Ramsdale even if the price was the same, so I am definitely playing him at a discount. | ||||||
| David de Gea | MUN | BOU | 5900 | 8.78 | 14 | 13.88 |
| Only Newcastle has kept more clean sheets than Manchester United and no team has allowed more clean sheets than Bournemouth. I still don't completely trust him for cash games but it is worth it to chase a win and a clean sheet in tournaments. | ||||||
| Jordan Pickford | EVE | BHA | 4400 | 7.6 | 10 | 11.63 |
| Only Brentford has more saves than Everton and only three teams have allowed more saves than Brighton. I don't expect a win or a clean sheet but Pickford should offer a nice floor at a reasonable price. | ||||||
Forwards
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | FUL | LEI | 8300 | 16.36 | 22 | 26.06 |
| His price has gone down (on DraftKings) after a disappointing game against Southampton, but this is another great matchup. Only four teams have allowed more goals than Leicester and Mitrovic is Fulham's best bet for an attacking return. | ||||||
| Jamie Vardy | LEI | FUL | 4100 | 3.49 | 14 | 6.97 |
| Only five teams are allowing more goals than Fulham and only three have allowed more penalties. It appears Vardy's tank is empty but you could do far worse for a punt play, especially in tournaments. If Vardy doesn't start, I would try to pay up for Kelechi Iheanacho. | ||||||
| Anthony Martial | MUN | BOU | 8100 | 9.61 | 19 | 15.41 |
| Martial has 1.30 goals + assists per 90 minutes, more than double his next highest teammate (Marcus Rashford). That number will probably come down as he plays more minutes but he still looks like a nice GPP play on both sites. | ||||||
| Eddie Nketiah | ARS | NEW | 7500 | 3.58 | 16 | 5.50 |
| He is still the cheapest Arsenal attacker, though that won't continue if he scores for a third straight game. Feel free to pay up for one of the other guys if you can but Nketiah looks like Arsenal's best value Tuesday. | ||||||
Midfielders
| Midfielders | ||||||
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Bobby De Cordova-Reid | FUL | LEI | 4800 | 7.78 | 13 | 13.09 |
| De Cordova-Reid is second on the team in goals per 90 minutes and he is very cheap. He doesn't offer the floor of the higher-priced Fulham players but I love his upside in this matchup. | ||||||
| Andreas Pereira | FUL | LEI | 7100 | 12.26 | 15 | 15.12 |
| Like most of his teammates Pereira was disappointing against Southampton, ending a streak of eight straight games with double-digit DK fantasy points. Leicester is sixth in crosses allowed and fifth in goals allowed. Pereira playable on both sites, with at least 17.3 FD fantasy points in seven of his last nine games. | ||||||
| Youri Tielemans | LEI | FUL | 6100 | 8.29 | 14 | 14.03 |
| Tielemans is the preferred set piece taker with James Maddison out, though Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall could be involved as well. Tielemans is averaging 11.86 DK fantasy points in his last five starts and he is safer than Dewsbury-Hall, assuming they both start. | ||||||
| Bukayo Saka | ARS | NEW | 9400 | 15.63 | 18 | 21.23 |
| As we mentioned before, all the Arsenal attackers are in play but unless you need to save some money, I would try to pay up for Saka. In addition to goals in both games since the break, Sakah has 14 chances created and 27 crosses in his last five games. | ||||||
| Bruno Fernandes | MUN | BOU | 8900 | 12 | 21 | 20.06 |
| He isn't as safe on DraftKings this season with Christian Eriksen on set pieces, but he is as good as ever on FanDuel with Cristiano Ronaldo gone. Fernandes has at least three chances created in seven of his last eight games. | ||||||
| Midfielders | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Christian Eriksen | MUN | BOU | 7900 | 9.96 | 13 | 13.31 |
| Eriksen has four attacking returns in his last five games and he faces the worst defensive team in the league. He has a nice floor on DK but he is a strong tournament play on both sites. | ||||||
Defenders
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Pervis Estupinan | BHA | EVE | 4100 | 4.85 | 8 | 8.42 |
| I don't really trust him though I suppose at this price we don't really have to. He had six crosses against Arsenal Saturday and Everton is allowint the second-most crosses in the league. | ||||||
| Kenny Tete | FUL | LEI | 5100 | 8.49 | 13 | 16.51 |
| Tete had 11 crosses against Crystal Palace on Monday and followed that up with an assist (but zero crosses) against Southampton on Saturday. I wish I could say he was definitely going to send in five or more crosses but he is probably too cheap for someone with 12+ DK fantasy points in four of his last five starts. | ||||||
| Daniel Amartey | LEI | FUL | 2900 | 3.45 | 9 | 10.51 |
| Amartey has at least 11.5 FD fantasy points in seven consecutive starts. Fulham may not be the best matchup for defenders but they have had the third-most blocked shots this season. | ||||||
| Kieran Trippier | NEW | ARS | 6800 | 16.29 | 15 | 21.02 |
| I understand Arsenal is a good team but his DK price feels like an overcorrection. Trippier has double-digit DK fantasy points in 16 of his 17 games including 12 straight. Considering the ugly pool of defenders in this slate, I'll gladly pay up for Trippier. | ||||||
| Ben Godfrey | EVE | BHA | 2600 | 1.31 | 8 | 3.83 |
| Godfrey was quiet for fantasy against Manchester City but they are not as good a matchup for opposing defenders as you might think. He is the cheapest of Everton's likely defenders and he is averaging 8.6 FD fantasy points per 90 minutes. I think he will go over that total Tuesday but he doesn't really need to at his price. | ||||||
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Marcos Senesi | BOU | MUN | 2700 | 3.41 | 10 | 11.85 |
| Senesi has double-digit FD fantasy points in 10 of his 12 starts. Manchester United hasn't been a great matchup for opposing defenders but they are playing better offensively of late and that should lead to some defensive stats for Senesi. | ||||||
EPL DFS Playbook Core Plays
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
| Top Tier | Bukayo Saka | $9,400 |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | $8,300 | |
| Mid Tier | Youri Tielemans | $6,100 |
| Andreas Pereira | $7,100 | |
| Value Tier | Bobby De Cordova-Reid | $4,800 |
| Pervis Estupinan | $4,100 | |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
| Top Tier | Bruno Fernandes | $21 |
| Bukayo Saka | $18 | |
| Mid Tier | Andreas Pereira | $15 |
| Eddie Nketiah | $16 | |
| Value Tier | Christian Eriksen | $13 |
| Daniel Amartey | $9 | |
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