One of the challenges of playing EPL DFS early in the season is determining how much to rely on two weeks of results versus our preseason expectations versus last season’s results. This is of course true of all sports, but I think the low-scoring nature of soccer makes it more pronounced. Is Brentford really going to rack up goals even without the services of their 20-goal scorer from last season? Is Brighton as good as its +6 goal differential, or did they simply beat up on two of the three worst teams in the league? If we can put the most recent results in proper context and anticipate where teams and players may revert to their previous levels, we can have a nice buying opportunity. At the same time, if we are too slow to react to new data, our DFS lineups could get left behind.

Saturday’s EPL DFS slate has a nice variety of games, which should make lineup construction relatively easy no matter which strategy you prefer. Arsenal and Manchester United are big favorites, though neither has been super convincing in their first two games. Brighton faces its toughest test yet against a West Ham squad that was probably flattered by the 3-1 scoreline against Chelsea. Brentford and Crystal Palace have drawn all four meetings since Brentford returned to the Premier League, and it is arguably the closest matchup on the slate. The only one that is closer, at least according to oddsmakers, is Everton vs. Wolverhampton. If either of these teams don’t want to find themselves in the thick of the relegation battle, they probably need to come away with three points. With so many different teams and matchups in play, there are solid fantasy plays at every price point.


EPL DFS Soccer Picks August 26

Jose SaWOLEVE45001.43101.25
I think Wolverhampton is the better team, even on the road, and I don't know how Everton is going to score with all of the injuries they have had. We probably won't get very many saves but a clean sheet would be just fine at this price.
Alphonse AreolaWHUBHA  810.50
I like Brighton as much as the next person but it is possible they're getting overrated after facing two of the worst teams in the league. Brighton has allowed the most saves through two games after leading that stat last season, and so lomg as they don't score four goals again, Areola has a good chance to return value.
Aaron RamsdaleARSFUL59009.821312.50
With Aleksandar Mitrovic gone and Willian unlikely to start, Fulham could be an even better matchup than Nottingham Forest. I trust Arsenal more than I trust Manchester United, especially defensively, though you have to pay a bit more for Ramsdale on DraftKings.
Kaoru MitomaBHAWHU  2035.25
I still think he's Brighton's best attacker and its not particuarly close. You can pay up for Solly March if you want to chase goals but Mitoma has created nine chances through two games while adding a goal of his own.
Gabriel JesusARSFUL860001723.71
Jesus is reportedly fully fit, and if he immediately enters the starting lineup, he is a must-start on both sites. Jesus had 17 attacking returns in 24 starts last season and this should be a favorable matchup.
Marcus Rashford probably has more upside, but Antony has more crosses and chances created than Rashford despite playing fewer minutes. Feel free to pivot to Rashford in tournaments if you can afford to, but anothony provides a high floor and forward eligibility on DraftKings.
Hwang Hee-ChanWOLEVE46009.591414.00
Hwang Hee-Chan has looked like Wolverhampton's best player off the bench in both games, and at some point you would think they would let him start rather than waiting to fall behind. He is a bit goal-dependent for my tastes, but considering he has played 62 minutes through two games, he would be a fantastic value if he starts and maintains the same fantasy production.
James GarnerEVEWOL56008.971412.80
Garner has a chance to be more involved on corners with Alex Iwobi out, and he already has 10 crosses, two chances created and one shot through two games. It remains to be seen if Arnaut Danjuma is healthy enough to play 90 minutes, which makes Garner the clear play if you're looking for an Everton midfielder.
Eberechi EzeCRYBRE900018.81821.55
Eze has 12 shots, eight chances created and 13 crosses through two games. He's going to find the back of the net sooner than later and he remains one of the safest players on either slate.
Bruno FernandesMUNNFO950013.892223.25
Fernandes should be the first choice on corner kicks with Luke Shaw and Mason Mount out, though Christian Eriksen will likely be involved as well. Fernandes is as safe as they come and has a high ceiling as well against the team that allowed the fourth-most goals in the league last season.
Martin OdegaardARSFUL780014.582224.65
If I'm playing Odegaard on FanDuel, I'll probaly try to find an extra $1 for Bukayo Saka. That being said, he is entirely too cheap on DraftKings. Odegaard is third on the team in shots and crosses. He is a safe way into the Arsenal attack without breaking the bank.
Yoane WissaBRECRY620021.971738.50
Every year there is at least one relatively anonymous players who rattles off a goal streak and provide a ton of fantasy value before turning into a pumpkin. Last year it was Miguel Almiron. Before that, it was Joe Willock, and Teemu Pukki. Chasing the next Almiron is obviously risky, but Wissa has another decent matchup and he was actually second on the team with 0.39 golas per 90 minutes last season. Someone was going to have the chance to step up with Ivan Toney out and it appears Wissa has stepped into that role seamlessly.
MidfieldersTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
Pablo SarabiaWOLEVE41009.831415.85
I never thought I would be this invested in Wolves' starting lineup, but Sarabia had six crosses, two chances created, a shot on goal and an assist in 34 minutes off the bench last week. This is by far Wolverhampton's best matchup of the young season, and Sarabia won't have to split free kicks with Matheus Nunes in this one.
Thomas ParteyARSFUL33008.651218.45
If for some reason you need to go even cheaper than Pablo Sarabia, Partey is a right back on a good team with a good matchup. He should at least send in enough crosses to return value, though I don't think he has Sarabia's upside.
Ashley YoungEVEWOL44006.999.85
Young was arguably Everton's best player last week against Aston Villa, even if the bar wasn't set particularly high. He took half of Everton's corners while leading the team in crosses and chances created. I love him on DraftKings and he is playable on FanDuel as well.
Angelo OgbonnaWHUBHA  83.20
He is $5 cheaper than the man he is replacing, Nayef Aguerd. Ogbonna had 5.40 clearances per 90 minutes last season, better than Aguerd's 4.46.
Calvin BasseyFULARS38000.3692.60
Bassey should get the start for Tim Ream, and while I would be lying if I said I knew exactly what to expect from him, he should have plenty of opportunities for defensive stats at Arsenal. Bassey is $2 cheaper than teammate Issa Diop and we could get similar production from the two of them.
Nathan CollinsBRECRY29004.891217.00
Collins has 15 clearances through two games, and only Chelsea has allowed more clearances than Crystal Palace on the young season.
Nelson SemedoWOLEVE36005.791114.80
He was quiet offensively the first two weeks but I blame that on two tough matchups. Only three teams allowed more crosses than Everton last season and Semedo only needs to send in a few to return value. If Wolverhampton shifts to a back three with Matheus Nunes out, I'll like Semedo even better.
Diogo DalotMUNNFO53002.72144.60
I would prefer someone safer at this price, but I don't see that person on this slate. If you want to pay up for a defender, especially on DraftKings, Dalot is worth a shot. He had two crosses in 24 minutes off the bench last week and with Luke Shaw out, there is a great chance Dalot keeps that up for the entire game against Nottingham Forest. Dalot seems to send in more crosses when he plays on the left, though he only did that for a few games last season.

EPL DFS Soccer Core Plays August 26

Draftkings Core Plays
Top TierBruno Fernandes$9,500
Eberechi Eze$9,000
Mid TierMartin Odegaard$7,800
James Garner$5,600
Value TierNelson Semedo$3,600
Pablo Sarabia$4,100
Fanduel Core Plays
Top TierKaoru Mitoma$20
Bruno Fernandes$22
Mid TierEberechi Eze$18
Gabriel Jesus$17
Value TierAngelo Ogbonna$8
Hwang Hee-Chan$14

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