As the calendar turns to May next week, our patience is beginning to wane. While you always need to be looking to improve your roster wherever and whenever possible, there is also a balancing act to be done. This is especially the case early in the season as you don’t want to find yourself overreacting to one week of performance, in either direction, after an off-season of crunching the numbers. 

At this point in the season, we are beginning to get past the initial rust and the fact that we had an abbreviated Spring Training, so let’s check in on three players, Bobby Dalbec, Miguel Sanó, and Spencer Torkelson, that were intriguing heading into 2022. 

 

 

 


It didn’t take long into Spring Training to see that Spencer Torkelson deserved to head north with Detroit. We have to give credit to the Tigers for recognizing this and giving him the opportunity to begin his major league career. 

Regardless of that though, and how comfortable he looked during the spring, it’s never going to be a smooth and immediate adjustment to major league pitching. That was evident as it took until the fifth game of the season for Torkelson to pick up his first hit. The good news, is that Detroit is truly committed to the rookie and he is getting the chance, in an environment without too much pressure, to find his footing. Torkelson has yet to bat higher than sixth in the order, while also spending time hitting seventh and eighth, and they actually bumped him up a spot after he was hitless in his first three games hitting eighth. Batting sixth or seventh seems to have worked for Torkelson’s confidence and it also puts him in better position to see pitches to hit and to be in position to be a run producer. 

Through 15 games, Torkelson is hitting .217 with three home runs and eight RBI, and the best is still to come here. While his 30.9% strikeout rate is a little higher than we would like, Torkelson is walking 14.5% of the time (in line with his minor league numbers). There is hope we do see an improvement there, as Torkelson has a below average 20% O-Swing rate and a .260 xBA. The quality of contact is also there (13.8% barrel-rate and 44.8% hard-hit rate) and home runs shouldn’t be a problem thanks to a 20.4-degree launch angle. Torkelson is hitting line drives at a high rate, 27.6%, while also keeping the ball off the ground with a groundball rate of just 27.6%, so he is putting himself in perfect position to drive the ball and make an impact at the plate. 

I am holding here, and potentially looking to buy if the value makes sense. 

 

 


This one hurts. I have a ton of Bobby Dalbec shares across my teams and he was someone I advocated drafting to fill a corner infield spot if you had previously adjusted other needs earlier. If we were going to forecast a rough start to the season for Dalbec, strikeouts would likely be the expected culprit, but at 26.7%, his strikeout rate could be much worse. 

Boston continues to give Dalbec every opportunity to right the ship, but with a .179 batting average, one home run, and two RBI, it is not occurring. In fairness to Dalbec, his BABIP is just .231 but we also aren’t seeing any power as evidenced by a .107 ISO. 

It isn’t for a lack of trying as Dalbec has a 22-degree launch-angle and a 47.5% fly ball rate so we know what his focus is, but it isn’t translating to results. Out of 40 batted ball events, Dalbec has a 10%-barrel rate which is about half of his 20.2% rate from last season. We are also seeing a drop in average exit velocity of 2.5 miles per hour from 2021, and both present some cause for concern. 

Entering the season, we knew that Triston Casas was looming and that continues as he is hitting .262 with four home runs and 12 RBI to begin the season at Triple-A, and I’m not sure how much more time Boston will give Dalbec to right the ship. 

All it will take is a moderate hot streak for Dalbec to get on track, but I would have no problems looking for alternatives, if you haven’t already, while also looking to stash Casas if he is available and have the roster space for a prospect. 

 

 


When it comes to Miguel Sanó, there is a clear track record here, and we knew what we were getting. Even still, no one could have expected it to really be this bad as Sano is hitting .083 to begin the season with just one home run, one run scored, and three RBI. 

If we want to offer up some level of defense for Sano, his BABIP is just .097 but looking at his very uncharacteristic .063 ISO takes away a large portion of that goodwill.  We know the batting average is going to a be a problem with Sano, but that is always going to be the trade off for power, and right now, we aren’t getting either. 

However, if you pull up Sano’s Statcast metrics, there likely would be some level of shock at how bad he has truly been based on his 93.2 mile per hour exit velocity, 15.6%-barrel rate, and 50% hard-hit rate. The problem though, lies in his 32.3-degree launch angle and 65.6% fly ball rate as both are simply too extreme. 

If Sano makes a slight adjustment there, things could turn around pretty quickly for him and it is also beneficial that Minnesota doesn’t have much in the way of alternatives. Holding Sano if there are better options on your waiver wire is difficult, but he has been a streaky power hitter in the past, and that should continue with a slight adjustment, but I’m not sure you would regret swapping him out for a player that is currently producing. At the same time, this could be a buying opportunity depending on your roster situation how much of a discount you can get. 

 

Related Links: