As Super Bowl week unfolds, golf enthusiasts are eagerly anticipating the PGA Tour's spectacle at the Waste Management Phoenix Open (WMPO), known as the "Greatest Show on Grass." Hosted at TPC Scottsdale, this tournament, dubbed the "Greenest Show on Grass" and #ThePeoplesOpen, stands out for its lively atmosphere, notably at the famed par-3 16th hole. Despite a reduced purse of $8.8 million this year, down from $20 million, the event remains a top draw for elite talent, with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler vying for a historic three-peat.

The heart of WMPO lies in its unparalleled fan engagement, especially at the raucous 16th hole surrounded by grandstands accommodating 20,000 fans. Tiger Woods' 1997 ace, pre-grandstands, adds to the event's lore. With seating for up to 350,000, it ranks third in all-time U.S. sporting event attendance, promising an energized viewing experience and showcasing the fusion of golfing prowess and vibrant fan celebration on the PGA Tour calendar.

Course Breakdown:

TPC Scottsdale, a challenging Par 71 golf course, spans 7,261 yards with 80 strategically placed sand bunkers and six water-laden holes. Despite an average winning score of approximately 18 under par, the course's complexities can surprise players. The par-3 16th hole draws spirited fans into a surrounding stadium for an electrifying experience. The course, blending vibrant green Bermuda grass with the rugged Arizona desert, features a visually stunning final stretch from holes 15-18, offering various scoring opportunities. TPC Scottsdale demands precision in putting on its seventh-largest greens, favoring players with a strong Off-The-Tee game. Course history is crucial, with TPC Scottsdale ranking high in predictability. Successful competitors excel in Greens in Regulation, scrambling, and bunker play. Approach shots from 125-200 yards are historically significant, emphasizing strength in this range. Strokes Gained: Approach and SG: Putting correlate with SG: Total, while Driving Accuracy holds more weight than Driving Distance. Navigating this dynamic course with strategic finesse is essential for tournament success.


Scottie Scheffler is gunning for a historic three-peat at the WM Phoenix Open, seeking to emulate Steve Stricker's success at the John Deere Classic. Despite last season's attempts by Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns, Rory McIlroy, and K.H. Lee falling short, Scheffler aims to etch his name among the four players who have won thrice at this event. The 2024 edition boasts a formidable lineup with defending champion Scheffler facing off against Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick, Max Homa, Jordan Spieth, and Justin Thomas. Positioned between two Signature events, though not as star-studded as last year, the tournament promises excitement, especially with Justin Thomas's momentum and Wyndham Clark's recent AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am victory amplifying the suspense among other top-10-ranked golfers.

Stats To Know

Top SG: Putting Targets

  • Beau Hossler - 6th on Tour
  • Andrew Putnam -  12th on Tour
  • J.T. Poston - 18th on Tour
  • Brian Harman - 20th on Tour
  • Wyndham Clark - 29th on Tour

Top SG: Approach Targets

  • Scottie Scheffler - 5th on Tour
  • Justin Thomas - 7th on Tour
  • Tom Hoge - 13th on Tour
  • Kurt Kitayama - 16th on Tour
  • Eric Cole - 19th on Tour

Par 4 Scoring Targets

  • Wyndham Clark - 2nd on Tour
  • Scottie Scheffler - 3rd on Tour
  • Jordan Spieth - 5th on Tour
  • Justin Thomas - 6th on Tour
  • J.T. Poston - 8th on Tour

Best Course History

  • Scottie Scheffler - 2 Wins & 1 Top 10 (3 of 4 Cuts)
  • Justin Thomas - 4 Top 10s & 3 Top 20s (7 of 9 Cuts)
  • Jordan Spieth - 4 Top 10s (5 of 7 Cuts)
  • Max Homa - 1 Top 10 & 1 Top 15 (5 of 5 Cuts)
  • Rickie Fowler - 1 Win, 4 Top 10s, 2 Top 15s (10 of 14 Cuts)

My Best Bets (2-6 Overall, -2.30 Units)

  • Justin Thomas Top 10 (+130)
  • Jordan Spieth Top 10 (+200)
  • Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 (+175)
  • Emiliano Grillo Top 20 (+260)
  • Tom Hoge Top 30 (+180)

One & Done Play

  • Rickie Fowler

Core Plays

Top Price

Scottie Scheffler ($11,600)

Scottie Scheffler's on fire at TPC Scottsdale, bagging two wins in a row and showing off better putting skills. Justin Thomas joins the game after Xander Schauffele bailed, making it a duo in the $10,000 range. Scheffler's been MIA from the winner's circle for almost a year, but don't sleep on him – the guy knows how to drive and nail those middle iron shots. Forget the formalities; Scheffler's a solid pick, especially with Bermuda greens where he shines. The dude should probably be priced higher considering his game.

Justin Thomas ($10,000)

Justin Thomas is on fire lately, and a win feels just around the corner. Over the last six months, he hasn't slowed down, notching six top-20 finishes at TPC Scottsdale since 2018 with a solid scoring average of 67.75. Despite the wild weather at Pebble Beach last week, Thomas rocked a tie for sixth, keeping up his streak of top-5 finishes in his last four worldwide starts. Ranked 19th globally, he's been a force at the WM Phoenix Open, landing 17th or better in seven out of nine appearances. With his recent good form and a killer track record, Thomas is a strong pick, especially in DFS where he might be overlooked. His awesome tee-to-green play and consistent results suggest a win is just around the corner.

Sam Burns ($9,600)

Sam Burns is on a roll, pulling off a solid T6 at PGA WEST and owning a solo 10th at Pebble Beach. This marks his sixth appearance, following last year's awesome T6 at TPC Scottsdale. The guy's been on fire, going under par in all 11 rounds in 2024. With three top-16 finishes in his last four PGA Tour events, including a cool sixth place at the 2024 American Express, Burns is making waves. Sure, he missed out on a win at The Stadium Course at PGA West, but his consistent game, bagging him 10th place recently, shows he's bouncing back strong. And those massive 7,100 square feet greens? Well, Burns' killer putting skills might just clinch the deal.

Mid Price

Jordan Spieth ($9,500)

Heading to TPC Scottsdale, Jordan Spieth, 30, is feeling good with four top-10 finishes in seven tries. He rocked a career-best 61 last year, landing him a sweet T4. Despite two big names dropping out, Spieth stands out among Tier 1 with his solid track record. Despite a shaky week at Pebble Beach, where he underperformed, Spieth's skills shine through. His ball-striking game has been on point at TPC Scottsdale, and I'm betting his putter heats up this week, making him a strong contender for the upcoming event.

J.T. Poston ($8,900)

J.T. Poston has had everything working, showing off some serious skills since July. He's practically a legend at TPC Scottsdale, nailing it 4 out of 5 times with two top 25 finishes. Crushing it with top-10s in Hawaii and a near miss at the Amex, plus a decent 20th at Pebble, Poston's the guy to watch. Stats-wise, he's solid, especially in putting where he's ranked 18th on Tour. Despite a hiccup last year, missing the cut, he's on a killer streak with four straight Top 20 finishes in 2024. Count on him to bounce back strong in a not-so-tough field.

Rickie Fowler ($8,200)

Rickie Fowler makes for kind of a sneaky DFS play because he hasn’t started this season like he did in 2023. He’s one of the guys who loves playing in front of big crowds, and has had some solid performances including a win. Rickie makes for a nice One-and-Done play. On the flip side, relying on past champions might not be foolproof. The 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic winner hasn't done well since leaving Detroit, and the recent results for 2024 don't suggest things are getting better.

Value Price

Shane Lowry ($7,700)

Shane Lowry, slipping out of the top 50 since his 2019 Open win, bounces back with recent success, including a tie for 25th at Torrey Pines and strong DP World Tour performances. Our model ranks him top 10, excelling in key stats. Known for loving a good party, Lowry seems a perfect fit for the upcoming tournament. Despite his lower world ranking, he outshines similarly priced peers, evident in his solid 25th-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. Returning to a course where he's secured two top-20 finishes in four attempts, Lowry's top-notch driving and approach skills make him a steal at this price.

Erik van Rooyen ($7,100)

So, this South African golfer has been lighting it up over the past five months, snagging 11 paydays in a row, with a sweet victory at the World Wide Technology Championship in November. Already nailed three top 25 finishes in 2024, including a cool T20 at Pebble Beach. Even in those Signature Events, he's quietly killing it. He got into the game by winning in Mexico during the fall season, and he's been hitting top 25s like it's his job. Check this out – he's second in ball striking and fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee over his last 24 rounds. That's some seriously solid play.

Nick Hardy ($6,800)

Nick Hardy's been in both Signature Events this season, not hitting high spots but still in the mix. He's rocking a top-25 rank in SG: Approach and ball striking over the last 24 rounds. Phoenix saw him tie for 42nd three years back, and he snagged 21st at the Amex recently. Results-wise, he's been in the 23rd to 47th range in his last four starts. However, Hardy's stats tell a different story – gaining strokes off the tee and with irons consistently. I'm counting on those stats translating into some better finishes real soon.

Player Pool

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