We’re down to just SIX races remaining in the regular season and this weekend the NASCAR Cup Series swings through Dover for some high-banked action on concrete at Dover Motor Speedway! The name for this race is a bit of a mouthful but there are some storylines to monitor for this race.

Shane van Gisbergen secured his third win of the season (all on road courses) last week at Sonoma and we’re also in the semifinals for the NASCAR In-Season Tournament. This week John Hunter Nemechek faces Ty Dillon in one semifinal. And in the other matchup we have Ty Gibbs vs. Tyler Reddick. Pretty impressive for the Toyota camp to get three drivers in the semifinal.

We also didn’t have practice and qualifying on Saturday which is a bummer because NASCAR is introducing a new Goodyear tire specifically for this race. So it’s a bit difficult to navigate the driver pool for this race but let’s dive in to this week’s NASCAR DFS picks for the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400!

 

 

 

Dover Motor Speedway

Dover Motor Speedway is a one-mile concrete oval with 24 degrees of banking in the turns and 9 degrees of banking in the straights. It’s hard to find some direct comparisons to Dover. Bristol and Nashville jump off the page because they’re also concrete tracks. But Bristol is just a half-mile track while Nashville is roughly a 1.33-mile tri-oval.

I know the trends table above says only 64.26% of the laps led over the last five races have come from drivers starting in the top 10 but that second race in 2020 is a bit of an outlier. If we look solely at the last four races then 72.37% of the laps led are from drivers starting in the top 10.

But we do get plenty of movers coming through the field as you can see in the table above. In the NextGen era we’ve seen at least eight drivers gain 10+ spots of position differential in this race and that’s significant because this race’s starting order was set by the metric with qualifying washed out.

But also with 400 laps on the table we’ll likely see plenty of drivers registering double-digit fastest laps. And that’s very helpful for DFS scoring which we’ll get to next.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

The table above is a bit of a shock because it feels somewhat contradictory to the last table we looked at. The scoring seems rather tight across the board (lookin’ at you, FanDuel) especially for a track that should see a healthy amount of drivers gain 10+ spots in positive position differential.

The polesitter has logged at least 25 laps led and 25 fastest laps in each of the last two races. A key to building the optimal lineup will be having the one driver in the field that leads 100+ laps. But based on the trends table we’ll likely see four drivers lead 20+ laps while at least two should lead over 50. It may be wise to target two-to-three dominators for this race and aim for some position differential options across the rest of the build.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400

Obviously this is an unfortunate situation we find ourselves in. Practice and qualifying were rained out on Saturday. That’s extremely frustrating when a new tire is being introduced because practice is far more important than qualifying. And for the most part, we’ve had great weather this season. And the one weekend they introduce a new tire, and this is the only race they’ll be using this tire, we have these shenanigans screwing up our plans. So we’re going to lean into track history, some race narratives, and maybe find ways to get a little contrarian for Sunday’s race.

 

AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 DFS Picks

Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $11,500 | FanDuel: $14,000

Larson is going through a bit of a dry spell. He has just three total laps led across his last seven races. Even he was rather vocal about how important practice would be for this new tire being introduced this weekend.

But alas we put our blind faith into good drivers in great cars that offer position differential. And Kyle Larson certainly fits that bill.

Larson finished second here last year with 39 laps led after he started P21. In 2019 and 2021 he finished first and second while leading a combined 417 laps. A lot will be made about Kyle Larson’s dominant concrete win at Bristol earlier this year, and rightfully so. He led over 400 laps in that race. But he has to work his way through the field for this race but there’s still a good chance he can get the win.

Denny Hamlin – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $13,500

Denny Hamlin starts P13 so he doesn’t offer as much position differential as Larson or the next driver in the Playbook (Ryan Blaney). But he also won this race last year with 136 laps led and in four of the last seven races here he’s led 65+ laps.

Hamlin’s also looked very strong on the concrete tracks this year. He finished second at Bristol but didn’t lead any laps (Kyle Larson hogged them all), but he also finished third at Nashville with 79 laps led. We’re coming off a pair of road courses which aren’t his preference so it’s nice to get back to playing Hamlin on an oval.

Ryan Blaney – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,000

In the NextGen era, Ryan Blaney has an average finish of 12.0 at Dover. And we can at least be honest with ourselves in saying this isn’t the kind of track where Team Penske is spanking the field. But Blaney clearly has upside for this race.

He starts outside the top 30 and this should be a top 12 car. A year ago he started P2 and finished 7th with 47 laps led. In 2023, he started and finished 3rd with a 121.6 driver rating. 

Now the “concrete” aspect of this track comes into play and Blaney finished 5th at Bristol with 48 laps led and he won at Nashville earlier this year with 139 laps led. I could have simply written him up and said he’s in play because of the PD because there’s legitimate win equity despite the starting spot.

Chase Elliott – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

The NextGen era has been kind to Chase Elliott at Dover. And to that point, the polesitter should fare very well here. In Saturday’s Xfinity Series race, Taylor Gray led every lap of the first stage before a bad pit stop cost him significant track position. But Elliott and his team should be able to hold their own given the stakes of this race.

Elliott won this race in 2022 with over 70 laps led and he was top five in last year’s race after he had to start P29. He wasn’t elite at Bristol or Nashville this year but he does have the benefit of elite track position for this race. 

Elliott comes in with some great momentum with four top five finishes in his last five races so hopefully the momentum and clean air can carry him to a strong result with early dominator points and a good finish.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Ross Chastain – DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $11,000

I’m not completely sold on this price tag for Chastain on Sunday. $9,500 is a tough pill to swallow, but there are 400 laps luckily. He does start P19 so there’s some PD on his side but it does feel like he needs to register fastest laps to help alongside the position differential.

Chastain ran the Xfinity Series race on Saturday but had his day end early with a vibration in stage two. But strangely enough, this is one of Chastain’s best tracks.

He is a previous winner at Nashville and he has an average finish of 5.7 in the NextGen era at Dover. His best performances came in 2022 and 2023 when he finished top three in both races with 184 laps led between both races. Another top five finish on Sunday would guarantee a 50+ point effort on DraftKings but if he can also mix in some dominator points then that’ll increase the likelihood that he’s optimal.

Chase Briscoe – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $10,000

We’ve highlighted Briscoe a few times this season and it’s nice to see him finally coming through and paying off for Joe Gibbs Racing. For this race he starts on the front row and he’s had some notable results on the concrete tracks this season. He started P14 and finished 4th at Bristol and while the result wasn’t great at Nashville, he did lead 51 laps early on from the pole.

For this race he’ll start on the front row next to Chase Elliott. Dover wasn’t a great track for Briscoe during his time with Stewart-Haas Racing. But the 19-car had some very strong runs with Martin Truex Jr. during the first three years of the NextGen car. MTJ won this race in 2023 and finished 3rd in 2024. In both races he led over 65 laps.

With no practice and qualifying for this race I’ll lean into the great track position to start and try to get some exposure in the event he can get around Chase Elliott for the lead early on and hope he can finish well.

Carson Hocevar – DraftKings: $7,700 | FanDuel: $8,000

I don’t have a ton to work with regarding Hocevar because we didn’t get a good look at anybody in practice. Hocevar’s starting spot may make him an appealing play for cash games. But he has the potential to either blow up your whole lineup and take you to victory lane. 

I do like that he finished 11th at Bristol and 2nd at Nashville this year. But we also can’t ignore the fact that he’s finished outside the top 25 on 10 occasions this year. Is he exciting to watch? Sure. But he’s a bit of a liability for DFS.

I also like that he’s an aggressive driver and this late into the season, this team needs to start taking chances to gain track position because he likely needs a win out of nowhere to make the playoffs.

Ty Gibbs – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $9,000

Gibbs is really priced down after finishing top seven in consecutive road courses and he’s been top 14 in six straight races. Has he had over 100 Cup Series races without a win? Yes. But this is still a Joe Gibbs Racing car and it should be competitive.

In the Xfinity Series, Gibbs registered a pair of top five finishes at the Monster Mile. Even in two Cup Series races we’ve seen him finish 10th and 13th so the pricing is a bit disrespectful.

Gibbs is also still alive in the NASCAR In-Season Tournament so he has a little extra motivation for this race. This week he’s going head-to-head with Tyler Reddick. And Reddick, with 23XI Racing, is now technically an “Open” car as the organization lost its charter. This also means slightly less funding for 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports. I’m not expecting a noticeable change in Reddick’s car for this race. But it should push Gibbs to be competitive and look to maintain track position throughout the race.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Bubba Wallace – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $6,800

I know this might not be Bubba’s preferred track type. He prefers drafting tracks and likely the larger ovals with more speed. Fortunately, he gets Indianapolis next week. And we should expect him to be priced appropriately for that race.

But for this race, he’s under $7,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel and that’s a bummer because this could very well be a top 12 car. In his first season with 23XI Racing he finished 11th at Dover. In 2022, he finished 16th. And in 2023 he finished 12th. Last year he did wreck during the third stage but that was after he finished 10th in stage two.

He rolls off P22 for this race and is strictly a GPP play with upside because if he finishes 12th then he’s returning 6X value and if he can finish in the top 10 then he may just crack the optimal lineup.

If you want a little more PD then consider Erik Jones who starts P27 and he’s cheaper than Bubba on both sites. Jones missed this race last year with an injury but finished 16th in 2023 and 10th in 2022. But I do have one reservation regarding Jones and it’s that the team might be more invested in his teammate, who we’ll get to later in this section…

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $5,500

Stenhouse has had an ARRAY of results at Dover in the NextGen era but I can provide some optimism and it stems from the starting spot. But in 2022 he actually finished as the runner-up to Chase Elliott. In 2023, he started P9 and finished 15th. Not a bad day overall, but not great for DFS. Last year he wrecked in stage three after finishing top 10 in the first two stages.

Stenhouse hasn’t finished well of late but we’re also coming off a pair of road course races which aren’t his cup of tea. For this race he does start in the second-to-last row so he offers plenty of position differential with decent track history in the NextGen era. The lack of practice is concerning especially for a smaller team like this one but there’s still a good floor here for DFS.

John Hunter Nemechek – DraftKings: $5,700 | FanDuel: $5,200

John Hunter Nemechek drives alongside Erik Jones with Legacy Motor Club. JHN is also in the final four for the NASCAR In-Season Tournament and he goes head-to-head against Ty Dillon. Dillon does start with better track position but overall I think I may trust JHN’s equipment more to potentially move on to the final round next week against either Ty Gibbs or Tyler Reddick.

JHN did start P34 and finish 20th in this race last year. But lately he looks like he’s finding another gear. He was able to grab top 10 finishes at larger intermediates like Texas and Kansas while he finished 6th at both Mexico City and Pocono. None of these tracks compare to Dover but maybe he’s motivated and trying to show what he can do if he wants to potentially steal a seat with Joe Gibbs Racing in the future.

Overall, I do like that there are a couple drivers in this bargain bin with something to race for. Dillon does start a bit high for my liking so on a track with moderate variance I give JHN the nod.

Zane Smith – DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $5,000

As tempting as it is to roster Noah Gragson from his P36 starting spot, I’m hesitant to run any of the Front Row Motorsports drivers. I may make a couple exceptions for Zane Smith though.

Zane has finished in the top 16 on nine occasions this year and he has also grabbed a dozen top 20 finishes. But among these value-priced drivers, I do like that Zane has flashed 40-point upside on DraftKings this year and starting P30 gives him some PD to work with to potentially do that again.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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