NASCAR DFS Call 811.com Every Dig. Every Time. 200 Playbook & Top Picks

The NASCAR Xfinity Series stays out West this weekend in the desert of Phoenix, Arizona. This track is the host of the Xfinity Series Championship in about eight months so it does hold some weight for many teams and they’ll want to take notes on how well or poorly they nail the setup. Cole Custer flat out dominated this race in the Fall on his way to his championship win. He stated P7, led 96 laps, had 40 fastest laps and a 141.0 driver rating. Sammy Smith had a similar run in this race last Spring with a 148.6 driver rating, 92 laps led, and 41 fastest laps on his way to a win. It’s a very technical race where track position matters and it’s our first “short” track of the season depending on your definition of the word. But we’re coming off a successful weekend at Vegas and it’s time to keep the hot streak on the West coast alive with the NASCAR DFS lineup picks for Saturday’s Xfinity Series race from Phoenix!

This is technically the “Call 811.com Every Dig. Every time. 200” and we’ve seen some horrendous sponsors in recent years. This one might take the cake as arguably the most awkward name for a race ever. But at the end of the day, it’s Phoenix, and we nailed Bayley Currey finishing seventh in this race three years ago for a very profitable day. This race on Saturday will have 200 laps broken into the usual 45-45-110 lap segments. In five of the last six Xfinity Series races we’ve seen at least eight cautions for 45 laps. And that doesn’t sound particularly fun, but at the end of the day, it’s the Xfinity Series. There are a good amount of drivers that are either lacking talent or needing better equipment.

Phoenix Raceway is a one-mile track with some unique dimensions including the infamous dogleg. This track has undergone some changes, including moving the location of said start/finish line. But it’s a track where track position does matter especially for a late restart. On longer green flag runs, it can be difficult to pass and clean air is key to run up front. In six straight races we’ve seen a driver lead 90+ laps and five of those drivers have gone on to win. Because he’s the NASCAR equivalent of a piñata, Daniel Hemric won this race while leading just 48 laps. But hey, that’s a great day for him and he’s a series champion because of that win.

Passing isn’t a great guarantee at this track either. We may only see four or five drivers gain double-digit position differential points, but it’ll depend on how qualifying shakes out. This is a track where the best equipment will emerge and the best cars should finish up front. But we get a quick turn around on Saturday with practice and qualifying in the morning on the West coast so the track will be a bit cooler. Check back for updates leading up to roster lock. I’ll include the practice notes, some thoughts on qualifying, additional drivers/pivots, and the driver pool table at the very bottom of the article.

NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Core Driver Picks For Phoenix

Top Price Core Plays

William Byron ($12,000)

We alluded to Byron in the original write-up but he had to go out and qualify early and he'll start outside the top 25 with plenty of PD. I don't think he'll get up front and collect any dominator points. He's arguably the only “sure thing” for a decent amount of PD. Tread carefully because he needs to finish sixth for 5X value, but we may be able to take a top 10 and maybe 50-ish points if he qualifies well.

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,500)

The top section could undergo a massive face lift once we know the starting order for Saturday’s race. JHN’s seeking a little redemption this week even after his dominant win in last week’s race at Vegas. Never forget, JHN was in the Championship Four for the Xfinity Series last Fall. Entering overtime for the race he took the lead early in OT but dove a little too hard into turn three and had contact with Justin Allgaier and ultimately JHN faded on the last lap and finished outside the top 20. But he still led 66 laps with 33 fastest laps and a 115.1 driver rating despite the poor finish. We know the car will have speed. It’s great equipment after all and I’d be none-too-surprised if he went back-to-back with another win this weekend. Update: He didn't put down a great qualifying effort, but he was quick in practice and he's raced well here in the past. He's a candidate to get out front later in the race.

Justin Allgaier ($11,000)

We get six drivers over $10K this week on DraftKings and 10 over that $9K threshold. I’ll be sure to update and add drivers if necessary based on practice and qualifying. Allgaier is pricy, but we know he has win equity and he’s performed well across his career here. He’s raced here 27 times throughout his career. In his last 18 races at Phoenix since 2013 he has a pair of wins and 10 finishes inside the top five. We’ve also seen him dominate on other tracks like New Hampshire and Dover. Are those comparable tracks to Phoenix? New Hampshire might be more of one than Dover, but he’s gone out and led 50+ laps here on multiple occasions previously. Update: Starts P5. My outlook on him doesn't really change.

Cole Custer ($10,700)

Custer went out and won the pole and he looked to be the fastest in the longer run metrics in practice. If he takes advantage of the clean air in front of him he'll provide for a big return.

Chandler Smith ($10,500)

We went overweight on Smith last week and it was a fairly rewarding experience as he finished with over 83 fantasy points, giving him three straight performances of 50+ fantasy points on DraftKings to start the season. The move back to Toyota has Smith on a great start to the 2024 Xfinity Series campaign. Appropriately enough, we come to a track that he’s had success on in the past. Last year with Kaulig racing he finished fifth in the Spring race and eighth in the Fall race. In four races with Toyota in the Truck Series, he never finished worse than third and he won the 2021 race with 39 laps led and he won the first two stages. We may get Smith at another ownership discount given the presence of William Byron ($12,000) for this race, but I’m fine riding the wave until the good vibes run out. Update: Starts P2. Another great opportunity for him to run up front similar to last week. Sammy Smith ($10,000) is a good pivot if you're looking for more PD in this range.

Mid-Price Core Plays

Aric Almirola ($9,300)

Almirola is a little pricy for a “mid-price core play” but keep in mind, he’s the ninth-most expensive driver on the slate and as of Friday night, Almirola’s getting +900 to win this race outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. For reference, those are better odds than Sammy Smith, Sheldon Creed, and Austin Hill. Those three drivers are priced above Almirola. It would appear as if the betting public is aware that Almirola is good on shorter, flat tracks. And Joe Gibbs Racing is the kind of organization that can nail the setup on this type of track. Sammy Smith won this race a year ago for JGR and Almirola does have a win at New Hampshire on his resume from his time in the Cup Series. $9,300 is just too good to pass up for Almirola who scored a win in the Xfinity Series last year in lesser equipment at Sonoma.

A.J. Allmendinger ($8,700)

Allmendinger was $9,700 a week ago at Vegas and put up 41 fantasy points on DraftKings. Not a rousing effort, but not terrible either. This week he’s $8,700 and you’re kind of just hoping for a similar performance to last week. Is this the best track for Kaulig? Probably not. We tend to prefer them on road courses or larger intermediates that showcase higher speeds. Across the board, these cars are discounted this week. In his last full-time season with Kaulig in the Xfinity Series, he finished fifth and seventh in both Phoenix races in 2022 and gained 10+ spots of position differential in both races. That’s not easy to do at this track.

Brandon Jones ($8,000)

A re-occurring theme in the early preview portion is jumping on, or at the very least, previewing drivers that are mis-priced. Jones fits that bill. He had a horrific debut season with Jr. Motorsports. But this is a driver that has still scored wins in the past with JGR. Jones won this race four years ago. Additionally, he finished second in this race two years ago after leading 30 laps. In the Fall he started P20 and finished 11^th, and overall, he’s finished 11^th or better in four of his last five races here. Assuming that he qualifies outside the top 10 he’ll have different avenues to hitting 5X value and this still a great discount given the equipment he’s in. I also have some intrigue with teammate, Sam Mayer ($8,500), but will provide updates based on qualifying. Both appear too cheap at first glance and Mayer came on very strong to close out the 2023 season. Update: Mayer will wind up with more ownership given that he starts outside the top 20. I still believe both are good plays but Jones may carry half the ownership. Mayer is the better Cash game play, Jones is great for GPP's.

Value Price Core Plays

Parker Retzlaff ($7,200)

We must maintain our resolve. The chosen one from Rhinelander, Wisconsin has absolutely blown us away with his drafting prowess at Daytona and Atlanta. Last week was a little disappointing. But we should also remember that this type of track is his bread and butter. He grew up with short tracking racing on flatter surfaces. In his debut at Phoenix two years ago he qualified P6 but had a fuel pump issue. He finished 18^th here last Spring and 13^th in the Fall. $7,200 might be a fair price for him. Do I wish he was cheaper? Sure. But we know he can thrive on this track despite the equipment deficiency. If he qualifies in the teens, I’d be happy to target him as a Tournament-only option. Update: Starts P18 which is perfect and shouldn't put too many people on him.

Ryan Sieg ($6,600)

This isn’t even a ringing endorsement of “Ryan Sieg is good.” But he’s far better than $6,600. Despite the fact we’ve seen races at Daytona, Atlanta, and Vegas so far… This is a silly price tag. Sieg finished seventh at Vegas last week and has still scored well in the other two races at Daytona and Atlanta despite finishing 22^nd. Sieg has five straight top 20 finishes here. When you consider that he tends to over qualify his car, then maybe that could make him a sub-par DFS play. But either way, if he does qualify the car well then you just hope he holds the position at this price. We see far too many cars finish off the lead lap at this race and Sieg has plenty of top 20 equity if he can just hold his spot. Let’s see where he qualifies and adjust if necessary. At the root of this argument is the big pricing discrepancy. Update: Still a fine DFS play starting P13. You can't use him in Cash games but if he can hang around in the top 15 most of the race and steal a top 10 he'll score well.

Jeremy Clements ($6,400)

Not a great play by any means but he starts P25. He isn't in great equipment but he's a veteran that can keep it clean at times. He's finished 20th or better in 10 of his last 12 races at Phoenix. A top 18 finish would exceed 5X value for Clements.

Brennan Poole ($5,900)

I won’t sit here and say Poole is discounted like other drivers. But for a sub-$6K play on DraftKings, he’s really the only driver I feel comfortable playing prior to practice and qualifying. He’s grabbed three straight top 20 finishes to start the year, and while two of those were in drafting races, he did manage to hold his position for most of the race at Vegas last week. Now we’d like a little more PD out of him, but he was able to grab some top 10’s years ago with Chip Ganassi Racing. Should we expect something similar at Phoenix? Absolutely not. But he is a talented driver that’s just going to be stuck in sub-par equipment the rest of his career. Fortunately, he’s shown he can at least take a back marker to the top 20. Update: He's a better Tournament play than Cash game play. But he starts P22 and might be able to stay on the lead lap. But I'll include other value plays to consider in the table below.

NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Driver Pool