The third base position is rather deep this year, and there’s a lot of enticing options, headlined by Nolan Arenado   and Alex Bregman . The guys that come after these two are enticing as well, notably Cleveland’s José Ramírez , Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and San Diego’s Manny Machado . Each week, we will take a dive into this position in particular and figure out what to do with the position, whether it’s examining producers at different categories, overvalued players, undervalued players, etc.

For this second piece, let’s dive into the three most overvalued players at the position, based on NFBC average draft position (ADP) data available at time of writing. While these guys are incredibly talented and have put up strong numbers in the past, their current draft price is a bit too rich for my blood, based on options available later.

Without further ado…

Kris Bryant

NFBC ADP: 57.41

It’s not that he’s a bad player by any means. He’s probably one of the more talented guys in the game, but I think we’ve seen what he is. He isn’t cheap in drafts, and while he’s a safer play than other guys around him, I don’t imagine his ceiling being as high as some of the other guys around him. Bryant came with big time power pedigree, but at this point, it seems like 35 homers would be an excellent power season for Bryant. He responded nicely last year after injuries in 2018, hitting .282 with 31 home runs, 77 RBI and a whopping 108 runs scored. This year, Bryant is expected to hit atop the Chicago order, which gives him more at-bats and run scoring opportunities, but the ability to rack up RBI in bunches is going to take a hit.

He hit 31 bombs last year, but took a slightly inflated 18.0 HR/FB rate to get there. His career mark is 16.4 percent, and he likely comes back to 16ish percent this season. Sure, more at-bats could offset that, but it’s worth nothing nonetheless. The problem for me with Bryant this season isn’t the talent, it’s more so the price and the options that come later. If you think your team needs a boost in runs scored, or just a safe play after some risky “boom-or-bust” guys early, Bryant is a more than adequate play. However, if you want power upside or chasing runs batted in, why not wait and grab Mike Moustakas , Josh Donaldson or Matt Chapman ?


Eugenio Suárez

NFBC ADP: 69.40

Statistical regression was on the table from the start, but the offseason shoulder injury certainly hasn’t helped anything. The Reds want him ready for Opening Day, or at least believe he could be, but I’m hard-pressed to believe he’ll be ready to go, 100 percent with no limitations. He’s going to have some lingering issues that likely sap some early season production.

Don’t get me wrong, Suarez is a pure hitter, but he had an insane jump in barrel rate last year! There is going to be some regression there, and his average exit velocity returned closer to his career mark after peaking at 91.2 miles per hour in 2018, per Baseball Savant. He never surpassed a HR/FB rate of 18 percent until 2018, when he jumped to 23.4 percent, but then he jumped again to a whopping 29.5 percent last year! That’s coming down a bit, even with a great home park! Suarez is one of the handful of players capable of hitting 40+ homers at the position, but I think we can all agree he’s not touching the 49 he hit last year, especially with the shoulder issue and if the balls are less juiced or jumpy.

I still like Suarez for 2020, but his average draft position needs to slip a bit. Paying full price, and then some, for a guy who was already battling statistical regression and now a shoulder issue seems like a risky proposition. If he slips in your draft, sure, take a chance, because the upside is there, just know if things go awry, you did it to yourself.


Anthony Rendon
NFBC ADP:21.75

Let me start by saying this. I love Anthony Rendon . He’s been one of my favorite players and preferred targets at the third base position. However, we have finally reached the point where he priced himself out of many of my fantasy teams in 2020. He signed a monster deal with the Angels this offseason, and he and Mike Trout will look to dominate the American League. The two form a strong 1-2 punch, arguably one of the strongest in the game, but Rendon’s ADP has him going in the middle of the second round, and with a plethora of options at the third base position, it’s hard to make the pick to Rendon for me.

He’s a massive upgrade in batting average compared to other guys at the position, but the power is matchable, as are some of the other stats, and Rendon doesn’t run anymore. Also, the second round is one of my favorites this year, as a lot of “my guys” are going off the board in that range, and knowing how deep third base is, I find myself going elsewhere, compared to Rendon.

Nothing from 2019 raises any flags for 2020, as most of the numbers are repeatable or on par with his career marks. His hard contact jumped to 44.7 percent last year, which is exceptional, and his 88.3 percent contact rate made it three straight years with a contact rate above 87 percent. He stays in the zone and hardly whiffs, which helps keep that average afloat.

Again, here’s my gripe with drafting Rendon this year. See the table below:















Player B







Player C







Player D







Courtesy of Steamer Projections

Player A is Rendon.
Player B is Josh Donaldson .
Player C is Manny Machado .
Player D is Yoán Moncada .

Is Steamer a bit conservative with Rendon? I believe so, yes, but still, I’ll take the multi-round discount and target guys like Machado or Donaldson instead.