MLB DFS Playbook July 14: Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Published: Jul 14, 2023
Hello and welcome to the first MLB DFS Playbook of the second half! We have a monster 14-game slate on both DK and FD on our hands today. We have a 7:05 pm ET start time, so you have plenty of time to get those lineups made! Make sure to check out all of our amazing MLB DFS tools as they are always worth going through before building your lineups as are the Vegas Odds. However, as I am sure you have figured out by now, the new playbook will be a one-stop shop that includes everything from easy-to-read player write-ups and suggestions to MLB Weather Reports to lineup construction tips to our best value plays for DraftKings and FanDuel. You will be given core plays around which to build your lineups, DFS stacks to consider for GPP tournaments and key statistics to help you in your DFS research. Let’s dive in!
MLB DFS Playbook July 14
MLB Weather Updates
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets (possible rain)
Miami Marlins vs. Baltimore Orioles (possible rain)
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago Cubs (possible rain)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals (possible rain)
Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals (possible rain)
Games that appear to have a decent wind blowing out:
None.
Games that appear to have a decent wind blowing in:
None.
DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
This slate is a lot to unpack. For starters, we have 14-games to look at, but with multiple weather concerns, which makes it a bit less fun. Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow are the headliners on the mound and we also have both Coors Field and Great American Ballpark on the slate, so just endless things to consider tonight. Make sure to look at weather reports as we get closer to lock.
Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees
Best Odds for a Win
Tyler Glasnow (Tampa Bay Rays -301)
Charlie Morton (Atlanta Braves -252)
Carlos Rodon (New York Yankees -208)
Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups
Glasnow is electric and arguably the best strikeout pitcher in baseball. His issues is, of course, the injuries, but he is currently healthy. He has scored at least 23.4 dk points in his last three starts, including 30.3 against these Royals in that span. He has the highest ceiling on the slate and nearly a lock for at least 7 strikeouts.
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
It’s been a great year for Castillo as he has a 2.85 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 117 Ks across 107.1 innings. He has been incredible at home with a 2.44 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 23.2 dk ppg average, compared to a3.51, 1.22, and 15.4 on the road, respectively. Tonight he gets to face the Tigers and yet we are getting him at a mid-tier price. He will likely be a popular play tonight.
DFS sites seem to be asleep at the wheel with Bello right now. He has been incredible lately, averaging 22.7 dk points per game over his last four games. He has pitched at least 6.2 innings in each of those games and has struck out at least 5 in three of them. He hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in a start in any of his last 13 starts. His ERA on the year sits at a shiny 3.04 and it’s actually even better on the road at 2.87.
Recommended DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
6.26 – New York Yankees
5.48 – Colorado Rockies
5.41 – Milwaukee Brewers
Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups
Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta Braves
Olson ended the first half hitting .410 with a 1.337 OPS over his last 10 games with four home runs and 24 total R/RBI. He has 29 home runs on the year with 72 RBI. He has hit .267 at home with a .966 OPS, compared to .240 and .885 on the road, respectively. He faces Michael Kopech, who has problems with the long ball this year, giving up 17 home runs in just 86 innings of work.
Zack Gelof, 2B/3B, Oakland A's
Gelof is set to make his MLB debut tonight and I think he is worth taking a gamble on at the minimum price (Also consider Tyler Soderstrom, who is also the minimum price and making his MLB debut for the A’s tonight). Gelof has been productive at AAA this year, hitting .304 with 12 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He has been very lot lately, hitting .413 with five bombs and three steals over his last 10 games. Unfortunately, he is not available on FD (nor is Soderstrom for that matter), because FD does a terrible job with their player pool.
Willy Adames, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Adames ended the first half on fire, hitting .310 with a 1.079 OPS and four home runs over his last 10 games. Tonight, he gets take on Graham Ashcraft at the Great American Ballpark, so we are getting a hot bat, at an offensive ballpark, against a bad pitcher. Ashcraft has a 6.28 ERA on the year with a 1.59 WHIP; I don’t see him cooling off Adames in this one.
Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
From one Brewers bat to another, Yelich went into the All-Star break on fire, hitting .333 and averaging 14 dk ppg over his last 10 games. He has had a fantastic season in general, hitting .284 with 11 home runs and 21 stolen bases. There is so much to like with Yelich and the Brewers today, as mentioned in Adames’ section, and I like Yelich to come out and start the second half the way he ended the first half.
Player Pool
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Stacks
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