MLB MVP and Cy Young Rankings July 1: Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna Jr. Look Like MVP Locks
Hello and welcome to the July edition of my MVP and Cy Young Leader board! We are at about the halfway mark in the season, as things become more clear as time passes. Injuries hurt some players stock (like Aaron Judge), while monster months of June have vaulted a few players into the discussion. You can check out the June 1 Edition of this article and see how things have changed over the last month.
These rankings are based on a mix of stats to date, my projected stats moving forward, team record, etc. Feel free to debate them if you want to and I will give my reasoning behind each decision. You can look to find potential value in futures bets on any sportsbook with the help of these rankings.
NL MVP
Ronald Acuna Jr, Atlanta Braves (Prev: 1)
Stats: 81 Games, .334/.413/.595, 20 Home Runs, 37 Steals, 53 RBI, 71 Runs, 4.6 fWAR
Notes: I mean just look at the stats. He's on pace for a 40-75 season. Silly. There’s not really much else to say, he is running away from the pack and it’s hard to see him not winning MVP at this point.
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers (Prev: 2)
Stats: 81 Games, .320/.401/.543, 14 Home Runs, 11 Steals, 53 RBI, 65 Runs, 3.3 fWAR
Notes: Freeman continues to be a steady producer, but it’s not quite as flashy as the next two listed and they could surpass him soon if they continue to produce at the level they did this past month.
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks (Prev: NR)
Stats: 79 Games, .290/.366/.559, 17 Home Runs, 24 Steals, 44 RBI, 60 Runs, 3.6 fWAR
Notes: The rookie storms up the board from NR to the three spot with a monster June in which he hit .291 with eight bombs and eight steals. He is having a remarkable season with stats that are unheard of by rookies. He is injured currently, so the results of imaging could be very impactful here.
Fernando Tatis Jr, San Diego Padres (Prev: NR)
Stats: 62 Games, .273/.338/.512, 15 Home Runs, 14 Steals, 37 RBI, 44 Runs, 3.0 fWAR
Notes: Tatis doesn’t quite have the volume of stats as others (due to missing time), but he is incredible and has put himself into the MVP conversation. He hit .318 in June with six home runs and nine stolen bases.
Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers (Prev: 5)
Stats: 78 Games, .270/.370/.533, 22 Home Runs, 7 Steals, 55 RBI, 64 Runs, 3.7 fWAR
Notes: Betts just keeps chugging along and retains his spot in the top-5, despite two new additions. He had a strong June, hitting .309 with nine home runs and five stolen bases.
Dropped from ranks:
Pete Alonso, New York Mets (Prev: 3)
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals (Prev: 4)
Honorable Mention:
NL Cy Young
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks (Prev: 2)
Stats: 17 games, 10-2 record, 3.02 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 104.1 innings, 108 strikeouts, 9.32 K/9, 3.3 fWAR.
Notes: Gallen easily takes over the top spot here as it was a rough month for Strider; however, it wasn’t exactly a great month for Gallen either as he posted a 3.69 ERA with just 26 Ks across 31.2 innings of work.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (Prev: 4)
Stats: 16 games, 10-4 record, 2.55 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 95.1 innings, 105 strikeouts, 9.91 K/9, 2.2 fWAR.
Notes: The future hall of famer jumps to the two spot. He had a monster June, going 4-0 with a 1.09 ERA across 33 innings with 30 strikeouts. He could potentially snag his FOURTH Cy Young award and first since 2014.
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves (Prev: 1)
Stats: 16 games, 9-2 record, 3.73 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 91.2 innings, 146 strikeouts, 14.33 K/9, 2.2 fWAR.
Notes: Despite going a perfect 4-0 record wise, it was an abysmal month of June for Strider. He got rocked to the tune of a 5.46 ERA across 28 innings by giving up 29 hits, seven home runs, and 17 runs. His absurd strikeout rate gives him a little leeway, but he has fallen behind Gallen and Kershaw.
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (Prev: 3)
Stats: 16 starts, 6-4 record, 3.76 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 93.1 innings, 106 strikeouts, 10.22 K/9, 3.2 fWAR.
Notes: I feel bad for Wheeler, I really do. His team’s trash defense will probably keep him from having a stronger chance of winning this award as he continues to have a far better FIP than ERA. He should probably be #1 right now, but instead he’s down at #4 because voters do still mainly look at ERA first and foremost.
Marcus Stroman, Chicago Cubs (Prev: NR)
Stats: 17 games, 9-5 record, 2.47 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 102 innings, 85 strikeouts, 7.50 K/9, 2.2 fWAR.
Notes: Stroman cracks the list as he continues to post a very impressive ERA. He had a good month, posting a 2.17 ERA in June. His low strikeout totals make him a long shot towards winning the award, but he deserves to be in the 5 spot right now.
Dropped from ranks:
Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates (Prev: 5)
Honorable Mention:
Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
AL MVP
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (Prev: 1)
Hitting Stats: 82 Games, .310/.396/.674, 30 Home Runs, 11 Steals, 67 RBI, 60 Runs, 4.2 fWAR.
Pitching Stats: 16 starts, 7-3 record, 3.02 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 95.1 innings, 127 strikeouts, 11.99 K/9, 1.9 fWAR.
Notes: Ohtani had a monster month of June and has now gone from “leading AL-MVP candidate” to “there is no competition at this point, he is the MVP.”
Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays (Prev: 3)
Stats: 78 games, .285/.345/.465, 9 Home Runs, 26 Steals, 40 RBI, 46 Runs, 3.7 fWAR
Notes: Franco just keeps on producing and in a normal world where Ohtani isn’t being the greatest baseball player in the history of the game, he would have a better chance at MVP.
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (Prev: NR)
Stats: 77 Games, .295/.365/.520, 13 Home Runs, 9 Steals, 52 RBI, 50 Runs, 3.2 fWAR
Notes: Ramirez cracks the list for the first time after a having a monster June, hitting .330 with seven home runs and four steals. Year in and year out he ends up being a MVP candidate (he has finished in the top-6 of voting in five of the past six years).
Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays (Prev: 4)
Stats: 82 Games, .316/.346/.500, 14 Home Runs, 3 Steals, 48 RBI, 42 Runs, 2.9 fWAR
Notes: June was pretty blah for Bo, hitting .278 with three home runs and one steal. He holds this spot for now, but will need to have a better July if we are going to see him in the August edition.
Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers (Prev: 5)
Stats: 82 Games, .282/.344/.457, 11 Home Runs, 7 Steals, 55 RBI, 67 Runs, 3.2 fWAR
Notes: It was a quite June for Semien, hitting .256 with three home runs and zero steals. A case could be made that his teammate (Seager) or Robert should be here, but we will stick with Semien… for now.
Dropped from ranks:
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (Prev: 2)
Honorable Mention:
Luis Robert Jr, Chicago White Sox
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
AL Cy Young
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (Prev: 2)
Stats: 17 games, 8-1 record, 2.78 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 103.2 innings, 113 strikeouts, 9.81 K/9, 2.2 fWAR.
Notes: It was a strong month of June for Cole as he posted a 2.40 ERA for the month and improved his season K/9 a bit by striking out 34 across 30 innings of work.
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays (Prev: 5)
Stats: 17 games, 7-4 record, 3.01 ERA, 2.54 FIP, 104.2 innings, 139 strikeouts, 11.95 K/9, 3.5 fWAR.
Notes: It was a solid month of June for Gausman, picking up four wins with a 2.97 ERA and 50 strikeouts across 36.1 innings.
Framber Valdez, Houston Astros (Prev: NR)
Pitching Stats: 16 games, 7-6 record, 2.49 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 105 innings, 110 strikeouts, 9.43 K/9, 3.0 fWAR.
Notes: Valdez cracks the top-5 with another strong month in which he posted a 2.73 ERA across 33 innings of work. He isn’t quite as flashy as some of the other guys listed here, but he is a steady and consistent pitcher.
Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays (Prev: 1)
Stats: 17 games, 11-1 record, 2.53 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 96.0 innings, 101 strikeouts, 9.47 K/9, 1.5 fWAR.
Notes: McClanahan takes a tumble. He has struggled in his last two starts and had to leave both early with a back injury. An IL stint seems likely and he will probably be placed on it today, which means he will be losing ground while out.
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (Prev: NR)
Pitching Stats: 16 games, 7-3 record, 3.02 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 95.1 innings, 127 strikeouts, 11.99 K/9, 1.9 fWAR.
Notes: I still just don’t see him winning both MVP and Cy Young (one because voters don’t like that, and two because I don’t see him finishing as the best SP anyways), but it’s hard to not list him here at this point.
Dropped from ranks:
Sonny Gray, Minnesota Twins (Prev: 3)
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners (Prev: 4)
Honorable Mention:
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
The next release will be on August 1 and with each passing the month the picture will become more and more clear.