Today we have the biggest party of the year at my bar. In hindsight, I probably should have made a switch this weekend. Yesterday I ran like a chicken with his head cut off from 4 a.m. until around 9 p.m. last night. Now, it is 4 a.m., and here I sit doing a Pitching Coach Article followed by putting the finishing touches on a huge party. I need to finish my beans, make 5 lbs. of goulash, appetizers, run to the store, bank, set up the place, and finally, work all day. By the time I get home tonight I will have worked around 20 hours. Then, four hours sleep and another Pitching Coach Article followed by opening my bar and then somehow finding the time to stay awake long enough to spend some time with my family. When all is said and done I will have slept around 12 hours in three days. The MLB season is long, very long, and as much I miss it when it is over, I am also ready for that week or so break between MLB and NBA. And then we start again. The thing is, I will always find the time to do this, I love fantasy sports, what can I say?

Possible weather concerns

Today is going to be beautiful for baseball as far as weather is concerned across most of the country, although hot through most of the Eastern half. California? Yep, beautiful as usual. I only see one game at this time to keep an eye on and that is the Angels-Tigers game on the night slate. Scattered showers are set to move in around 6 p.m. and last for several hours. If it gets heavy enough to cause a delay, you may lose your SP in that one. For this reason, with so many options on the board I will be avoiding SP in this game at this time.

Day Slate

There is no clear cut safe option on the early slate today so I would avoid cash games and just play some light GPPs saving your bankroll for tonight. Why go crazy over a four-game slate with bad matchups, when you can roll the dice in safer waters.

Jason Hammel, Chicago Cubs

Prior to his last outing in Chicago Jason Hammel had only allowed six earned runs over his last seven games striking out 40 batters over 43 innings. Although the Dodgers are third in MLB in wOBA versus RHP at .345, over the last seven days they are striking out 22.7 percent of the time while batting .260, which is just above the marginal line. He got touched up a bit in his last start in Colorado but outside of that he had only allowed one earned run in the four previous starts striking out 23 batters over 27 innings. He has favorable BVP versus the Dodgers with only the red hot Adrian Gonzalez having homered off of him, but, keep in mind LHB have a .329 wOBA versus Hammel. With a great park shift and little to choose from, Hammel easily slides into the one spot on the early slate.

Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays

As much as I hate taking SP in the Rogers Centre, on a small slate you go with the hot hand. Marcus Stroman over his last two starts versus the Astros at home and Indians on the road has a 1.32 ERA with 17 strikeouts over 13 2/3 innings. He also has a 4.47 ERA opposed to his 3.43 xFIP which suggests he has been unlucky and is a huge -209 favorite today. The Twins may be 13th in wOBA versus RHP on the season (.326) but over the last seven days are cold as ice batting .221 with a wRC+ of 61 (29th in MLB). The sample size is small (7-for-36) but the current Twins roster is only batting .194 with no HR versus Stroman. I just hope the Twins do not like “Beef Stomanoff”.

Chad Green, New York Yankees

If you’re looking for that cheap play this is the guy I am running with. Chad Green over his last two starts has a 0.75 ERA versus the Angels on the road and mighty Blue Jays at home with 26 strikeouts over 12 innings. If he took down Toronto I see no reason why he cannot do the same to Baltimore. The Orioles are second in MLB in wOBA at .348 versus RHP which is rather terrifying, but, they also strikeout 21.7 percent of the time batting only .229 over the last seven days. The BVP is minuscule but positive and I see no reason he should not dominate at home today. LHB do carry a .398 wOBA versus Green which certainly makes players like Chris Davis seem extra monstrous. For the price across the industry you can pretty much roster who you want though if you decide to use him, Colorado-Washington, hint, hint.

To be fair both Dylan Bundy and Julio Urias do not rank much below green today in my eyes but I have no plans on using them at this time.

                 vs Lvs R   
Dylan BundyBALRNYY81.08.232.441.33.25312.3%3.334.301.28.29337.5%44.4%0.840.3060.336$7300$5100$6500
Jason HammelCHIRLA137.27.522.881.18.22210.5%$8100$8600$7250
Jorge De La RosaCOLLWSH110.06.714.011.39.27411.2%5.074.751.53.30050.4%29.7%1.700.3460.354$6200$4600$5900
Julio UriasLALCHI57.09.793.630.79.28311.8%3.953.741.53.36246.0%26.1%1.760.2950.346$7700$6500$7000
Ervin SantanaMINRTOR140.26.982.110.90.24910.3%3.334.021.19.28344.7%33.2%1.350.2800.311$8100$9700$6800
Chad GreenNYYRBAL39.110.302.521.83.24712.4%3.663.081.22.29048.6%26.7%1.820.3980.256$6400$5300$6550
Marcus StromanTORRMIN161.07.552.181.01.26610.0%4.473.431.28.31262.0%17.8%3.490.3340.300$8200$9100$7500
A.J. ColeWSHRCOL7.010.292.572.57.19211.1%5.143.621.00.18827.8%61.1%0.450.1620.436$5500$6300$5700

Night Slate

We have some decent options on the night slate with some pretty decent cash plays. The question is to Duffy or not to Duffy? Danny Duffy that is. For myself, I am passing on the young hurler today. The Red Sox at home are just not a viable team to attack in cash games. In a GPP? Maybe.

Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets

Thor at this point is basically the last man standing in the Mets current piecemeal rotation. For DFS purposes, this does not matter. What does matter is the Phillies are 28th in MLB in wOBA versus RHP at .306 and are striking out 24 percent of the time with a low wRC+ of 81 over the last seven days. Thor over his last two starts has a 1.32 ERA versus the Giants and Diamondbacks on the road with 14 strikeouts over 13 2/3 innings. He gets a great park shift at home in Citi Field and is a huge -223 favorite. He has the highest swinging strike rate on the slate at 15.9-percent and should utterly dominate this lackluster Phillies team today at home that he has dominated in the past (the current Phillies roster is batting .176 with 18 strikeouts over 51 plate appearances with two HR, one each by Freddie Galvis and Ryan Howard).

David Price, Boston Red Sox

Although I am not a huge fan of taking pitchers at home in Fenway Park, David Price gets a great matchup today facing a Royals team that is 30th in wOBA on the road at .287 with a wRC+ of 77. Meanwhile, David Price is getting better as the season goes on. Over his last 12 starts he has a 3.69 ERA, over his last six starts a 2.36 ERA, and over his last two starts versus the Rays and Orioles on the road he has an 0.64 ERA with 12 strikeouts over 14 innings. Price is also a -157 favorite and has decent BVP versus the current Royals roster. They are batting .250 (31-for-124) with three HR (Salvadore Perez (2) and Lorenzo Cain), eight RBI, and 14 strikeouts. Although I would like to see more K upside he still is a solid second option behind Syndergaard today.

Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates

I was high on Taillon before the season started. When he got the call up I paid well for him in all my seasonal leagues, believe me. Today he does not get the best park shift in the world but gets the best team to attack for strikeouts in the form of the Milwaukee Brewers. Not only do the Brewers strikeout 26.8 percent of the time versus RHP (first in MLB) but over the last seven days are batting a pathetic .226 striking out a whopping 27.2 percent. Taillon has not allowed more than three earned runs in eight consecutive starts, including two starts versus the same Brewers team, where he has struck out nine over 12 innings pitched, allowing a total of three earned runs. On DK and Aces I would rather spend up for Price but on FD, he is a steal today at $7,700.

Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia Phillies

If you play seasonal there is a good chance if your league is a 12-team mixed, Hellickson was available most of the season. At least he was in most of my Yahoo head-to-head leagues. With all the young talent emerging in Philly, Hellickson, who has an uncertain future there, has put together a great under the radar season. Over his last 12 starts he has a 2.60 ERA with 52 strikeouts over 69 1/3 innings. As of late, even better. Over his last two starts he has a 2.25 ERA versus the tough Dodgers on the road and tougher Cardinals at home with 15 strikeouts over 12 innings. He gets a great park shift at Citi Field where in his last start there versus the Mets he went 5 2/3 innings striking out five batters while allowing two earned runs for a 1.54 ERA. I love the price across the industry and will have exposure to him today in some form facing a fairly hot Mets team.

Jake Peavy, San Francisco Giants (GPP only, really, I mean it)

I say it all the time, Jake Peavy at home is a bargain. It has been awhile since he started a game, July 3rd to be exact, he also surrendered five ER to the Mets in his last outing over two innings on Aug. 20th. At home Peavy has a 4.93 ERA opposed to his 6.46 road ERA, he also has been a bit unlucky as the numbers suggest with a 5.55 ERA and 4.37 xFIP on the season. The Braves only have a .315 wOBA versus RHP but I must tell you it was much lower a few weeks ago (.305 first half-.336 second half), which explains the .289 average over the last seven days. Peavy is well rested and I fully expect him to have a good outing today even though he is bound to allow a few earned runs. The BVP is decent as well with current Braves roster batting .228 (26-for-114) versus Peavy with two HR (Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis) and 18 strikeouts. For the price in a cheap GPP, you can bet I am using him in this home matchup.

Alex Reyes, St. Louis Cardinals

For nearly the same price as Mookie Betts on FanDuel you can get a SP tonight with a 12.54 K/9, 13-percent swinging strike rate, and ERA of 0.00 (even though he has only pitched 9 1/3 innings at the MLB level). He gets a great park shift at home facing an Athletics team who is batting .242 with a wRC+ of 77 over the last seven days while striking out 22.8 percent of the time. I do not have a lot to say here as Reyes is new to the scene and exactly how many innings he goes today is a huge question, but, he has pitched six innings several times in the minors. Maybe they let him go today? Once again, for the price? Why not in a GPP?

I do like Michael Fulmer today versus the Angels, but, the weather is terrible as mentioned above. If it clears, he may be a good GPP play with low ownership.

                 vs Lvs R   
Zack GodleyARIRCIN57.06.632.531.26.27611.8%5.534.311.40.30054.0%24.6%2.200.3610.322$5800$4200$5450
Michael FoltynewiczATLRSF95.07.872.461.42.26810.5%4.554.171.33.29943.5%35.4%1.230.3580.321$6700$6600$5950
David PriceBOSLKC177.29.071.921.06.26212.7%4.003.451.23.31746.5%31.5%1.480.3090.313$10300$10000$7850
Anthony DeSclafaniCINRARI85.17.911.791.05.2689.9%3.273.871.22.30742.9%33.1%1.300.3760.235$8000$8400$6200
Carlos CarrascoCLERTEX124.$10400$11200$6850
Jose QuintanaCWSLSEA164.27.762.020.87.2388.7%2.843.851.12.28341.4%37.3%1.110.2470.300$9100$9400$7100
Michael FulmerDETRLAA125.27.452.290.86.21811.5%2.583.761.06.25253.0%27.6%1.920.2620.293$8400$10500$6600
Dallas KeuchelHOULTB161.07.832.571.06.25610.2%4.643.521.28.30159.4%20.8%2.850.2660.331$8700$9200$6750
Danny DuffyKCLBOS138.29.541.880.97.21914.6%2.663.461.01.27436.8%43.0%0.860.1970.296$9800$10200$6900
Jhoulys ChacinLAARDET108.39.123.470.99.2748.2%5.404.512.97.31852.1%28.4%1.840.3500.343$5500$4900$5550
Jose UrenaMIARSD48.16.152.790.93.27710.5%6.334.851.49.29850.3%27.4%1.840.3830.303$5600$4500$6250
Jimmy NelsonMILRPIT148.07.063.951.16.2678.1%4.264.781.48.29851.7%30.5%1.700.3440.349$6500$6300$5900
Noah SyndergaardNYMRPHI148.010.761.820.55.24915.9%2.622.661.16.34053.1%22.5%2.360.3100.265$10800$12300$8150
Zach NealOAKRSTL39.13.200.461.60.29610.4%5.494.381.25.29053.8%27.3%1.970.3560.335$5200$4000$5500
Jeremy HellicksonPHIRNYM150.07.621.981.26.24412.1%3.603.911.14.27342.3%31.6%1.340.3390.287$7600$8700$6550
Jameson TaillonPITRMIL74.07.301.220.97.2439.1%2.923.221.04.27757.8%22.5%2.570.3080.255$7700$9900$7250
Clayton RichardSDLMIA26.$6100$4000$5750
Ariel MirandaSEALCWS19.218.002.751.37.3648.7%13.504.323.30.31036.7%38.3%0.960.4800.310$6200$4000$5700
Jake PeavySFRATL116.27.792.551.39.28111.4%5.554.371.42.31838.1%40.5%0.940.3890.332$6000$6000$5650
Alex ReyesSTLROAK9.112.542.890.00.16113.0%0.002.370.96.27861.1%16.7%3.670.2520.174$4,500$7400N/A
Blake SnellTBLHOU65.19.505.510.41.25611.1%3.174.561.59.33241.3%33.7%1.230.2920.322$7900$7600$6700
A.J. GriffinTEXRCLE90.17.673.191.89.2539.5%4.684.611.32.27233.7%44.6%0.760.3980.297$7000$5600$6200

Good luck today. Check your catchers if they played last night.

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