Alex Guerrero is a 29 year old who was born in Cuba. Signed through the 2017 season – he’s owed $10 million the next two seasons – he stands six feet tall and weighs about 210 pounds. Signed by the Dodgers in 2013 as a free agent, his work for the Dodgers at the big league level has been alternatively strong and weak. Let’s take a look at his career and skills before we render a decision on his 2016 outlook.

CUBAN NATIONAL SERIES

From 2004 to 2012 this is where Guerrero plied his trade – in Cuba. In none of those campaigns did he appear in more than 87 games, though each of the last six years he saw action in at least 79 games. The last four seasons he hit between 19 and 22 homers displaying big time power. He also drove in at least 66 runners in three of those four seasons with a high of 87 runs batted in for the 2009 season.

He hit .303 with a .911 OPS in his time in Cuba. He was a strong offensive force.

THE DEFECTION

Guerrero defected from Cuba in 2013. Before coming to the States he established residence in Haiti for the purposes of being granted free agency. He eventually signed a 4-year, $28 million deal with the Dodgers.

He didn’t play organized baseball in 2013.

THE MINORS

Alex appeared in 77 games at Rookie, High-A and Triple-A in 2014. He hit .333 with a .373 OBP and .621 SLG. In those 77 outings he hit 17 homers, drove in 57 runs, scored 47 times and stole four bags. It was an epic effort.

THE BIG LEAGUES

In 2014 he appeared in 11 games with the Dodgers going 1-for-13.

In 2015 he appeared in 106 games accruing a mere 230 plate appearances. He hit a mere .233 with a .261 OBP, a .434 SLG and 11 homers.

THE SKILLS
 

First off, Guerrero has only 243 plate appearances in two seasons with the Dodgers. That’s, admittedly, a very small sample size. Tiny actually. Hard to know for sure with a number as small as that what a player truly has to offer. Keep that in mind as we move forward. Here is what we know for sure.

1 – Guerrero is already 29 years old. Well maybe. We think. Let’s just take him at his word. He’s 29.

2 – Guerrero destroyed minor league pitching though that was only 77 games of action. Still, a .994 OPS ain’t something to look past.

3 – His work in the big leagues has been very uneven.

Guerrero hasn’t hit at home, at all. In 62 games at Dodgers Stadium his slash line has been abysmal at .161/.185/.323.

Guerrero has a mere .605 OPS against left-handed pitching. He’s hit only three homers, and taken just two walks, in 90 plate appearances against portsiders.

He has a 25.9 percent K-rate. Such a pace would lead to a strikeout total of about 130 over 500 plate appearances. Not great, but also not something that I’m going to flip out about. However, his swinging strikeout rate is abysmal at 15.2 percent. Only seven men in baseball had a mark that high in 2015.

Guerrero has walked, and this is flat out amazing, seven times in 243 plate appearances. That’s a pace for just barely 15 walks over 500 plate appearances. That’s pathetic. Why would a pitcher throw a strike to him? I certainly wouldn’t. The resulting 0.11 BB/K ratio is comically atrocious. This turn is a bit odd too. In Cuba the mark was 0.83 but the mark in his short stay in the minors at least it was 0.29, which when compared to his major league work looks like a win. Clearly the pitching here is different than it was in Cuba.

During his minor league career Guerrero posted a 19.0 percent line drive rate. During his time with the Dodgers the mark has been 19.9 percent. Both marks are just a tick below the big league average.  

Guerrero has a 38 percent fly ball rate in the bigs. The mark was 35 percent in the minors. The big league average is usually 34-35 percent.

Fact is that Guerrero’s hit distribution, in the majors, is basically of the league average variety with a bit more in the fly ball column and a bit less in the ground ball category.

When he does hit the ball, and it doesn’t go over the fence, he’s having a hard time producing base knocks. Alex owns a .256 BABIP, and that just isn’t going to get it done. His minor league mark was just over .330 so we can all hope, even if the totality of his game doesn’t suggest a big jump is probable.

Moving on, Alex has a wOBA of .285, a pathetic mark. No further comment is necessary.

The power is the last part to discuss.

Guerrero has displayed a power bat all through his career. He’s a compact fella, even without standing out in any physical way, with a powerful swing.

 

During his short time in the minors he hit 17 homers in 308 at-bats.
During his short time in the majors he’s hit 11 homers in 232 at-bats.

His HR/FB ratio in the minors was 20.5 percent.
His HR/FB ratio in the majors is 16.9 percent.

If he were to get 500 at-bats and maintain that type of pace he would hit around 25 homers. That would certainly play in virtually every league, especially as a corner infielder.

THE GLOVE

Guerrero was a basically a shortstop when he came to the big leagues. There was a lot of thought at the time that he wouldn’t be able to handle that spot so the thought was that he would more likely be shifted over to second base, a position he played a bit while in Cuba. However, his lack of first step quickness and range made even that a risky proposition. So the thought was maybe third base. Don Mattingly, the Dodgers’ manager last season, basically admitted that Guerrero’s glove was suspect and it was one of the main reasons that he wasn’t playing daily last season.

When the 2015 season was over Guerrero had appeared in 22 games at third base and 29 in the outfield so he will have that flexibility this season, even if he’s no threat to win ever win a Gold Glove.

PLAYING TIME

With the injury to Andre Ethier who is out 10-14 weeks with a broken leg, and the obvious physical woes that have hit Carl Crawford for years, it’s possible that Guerrero could find himself run into serious time in the outfield (Scott Van Slyke is merely a lefty masher). Still, Trayce Thompson is also in the mix and Kike Hernandez can play in the outfield as well. It’s still tough to envision Guerrero starting consistently unless he is traded or unless others fail when given the chance in Los Angeles.

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OUTLOOK

Guerrero doesn’t run, I didn’t even bother to note he has one career steal, and there is little to recommend major growth in the batting average category. There is also the fact that his glove is poor and that he has no clear path to the starting lineup. The injury to Ethier helps Guerrero, but that’s only in very deep leagues.

10-team Mixed: Can’t see a current scenario that makes Guerrero worth drafting at the moment.

12-team Mixed: Can’t see a current scenario that makes Guerrero worth drafting at the moment.

15-team Mixed: If you want to spend a 29th round selection on Guerrero, or toss a $1 at him and hope, I get it. Not a move I would make, but I get it.

NL-Only: Finally, a spot where it makes sense to roster him. The injury to Ethier might get Guerrero in the lineup a bit more each week. Let’s say it’s only five plate appearances more a week. Still, that’s 50-65 extra plate appearances over the course of half the season (remember Ethier is set to miss 10-14 weeks). That matters. There’s still a chance he could be dealt, the AL is in play as well, so don’t be overly aggressive with Guerrero.

To see where Guerrero ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).