2016 MLB Draft Guide: Is it Time to Replace Saves?

I’ve argued for years that we should try to move on from roles to a more skills based game in fantasy sports. One of the easiest ways to accomplish this goal in fantasy baseball would be to remove saves as a category in the 4x4 or 5x5 fantasy game. I didn’t create it, but I’m always a bit flummoxed as to why people don’t incorporate Solds into the fantasy game. It’s simple, easy to understand and straight forward. Is it perfect? Nope. Is it better than the set-up we have now? I think it’s impossible to argue otherwise (though some argue otherwise).

DO SAVES REALLY WORK?

Saves are random, game-dependent marks that speak little to the talent of a player, at least directly. The score has to be just right. Is a three-run save worth as much as a one-run save? In the fantasy game it doesn’t matter, but you can’t tell me getting three outs in the ninth in a 6-3 game is more important than getting three outs in the eighth inning of a 3-3 game. There’s also the fact that a manager has to call on the pitcher when the opportunity presents itself. Then there is the skills-based part of this equation. Is the “most talented” guy working the ninth inning? Sometimes yes, sometimes no. That’s an issue, isn’t it? There’s also the fact that managers frequently turn to veterans because they have “done it before.” Those players tend to get a bit more rope when they struggle as well. Regardless, saves are random and do not speak directly to the skills of the pitcher, do they?

THE 2015 SEASON

Let’s take a look back at some Average Draft Position (ADP) numbers from the spring just before the 2015 season began. Here are some of the relievers who were taken inside the top-25 at the position. The number listed is their saves total last season.

16 saves - Fernando Rodney

6 saves - Jake McGee

4 saves - Neftali Feliz

4 saves - Addison Reed

4 saves - Sean Doolittle

3 saves - Steve Cishek

2 saves - Joaquin Benoit

It’s not like the 2015 season was an outlier either. Every year top-25 closers bomb. Moreover, we end up wasting picks every year on relievers who recede into nothing. Why? Sometimes it is because of injury (Sean Doolittle). Sometimes it is because of poor performance (Steve Cishek). Sometimes there are some minor struggles from a guy who is removed from the role and despite finding his footing, fails to reclaim ninth-inning duties. Sometimes a trade is made and, through no fault of the player, his value tanks (Joaquin Benoit thanks to the Craig Kimbrel add by the Padres).

How about this? Let’s look at some of the team leaders in saves. There were plenty of examples where one or two setup men were actually better pitchers than their team’s closer in 2015. Remember, saves are about the role, not the skills. Take a look at a few examples: Rays (Brad Boxberger, Jake McGee), Royals (Greg Holland, Wade Davis). It happens.

The fact is that we often times end up wasting early-round selections on closers who simply do not perform remotely close to expectations. And with so many early-round failures, there are always tons of late round bargains as well.

NFBC Average Draft Position numbers follow.

445.8 – Jeurys Familia

536 – Jason Grilli

543.7 – Brad Ziegler

546.5 – A.J. Ramos

577.8 – John Axford

608.5 – Tom Wilhelmsen

631.1 – Roberto Osuna

You get the point, right? There is a massive amount of turnover each season and it’s quite common to see anywhere from 10 to 15 designated closers in March fail to lead their team in saves come October. So what are we doing? Why are we painting ourselves into a role-induced corner? This is where Solds comes into play.

WHAT ARE SOLDS?

Quite simply Solds are saves+holds. Nothing fancy. No calculators needed (well some might need one, but if you paid attention in middle school instead of worrying about snapping a girls training bra or passing notes about which fella liked you, there’s likely be no need for electronic aid). Let me define each category just so we are on the same page. From MLB.com.

Saves: 
Rule 10.20 in the Official Rule Book states:
Credit a pitcher with a save when he meets all three of the following conditions: 
(1) He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his club; and 
(2) He is not the winning pitcher; and 
(3) He qualifies under one of the following conditions: 
- (a) He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning; or 
- (b) He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat, or on deck (that is, the potential tying run is either already on base or is one of the first two batsmen he faces; or 
- (c) He pitches effectively for at least three innings. No more than one save may be credited in each game.

The "Hold": 
The hold is not an official statistic, but it was created as a way to credit middle relief pitchers for a job well done. Starting pitchers get wins, and closers get saves, but the guys who pitch in between the two rarely accrue either statistic. So what's the most important thing one of these middle relievers can do? "Hold" a lead. If a reliever comes into a game to protect a lead, gets at least one out and leaves without giving up that lead, he gets a hold. But you can't get a save and a hold at the same time.

STRENGTHS OF SOLDS?

(1) Adding Solds to the mix broadens the pool of relievers under consideration. (2) Solds lessens the importance of getting a “closer” early in a draft. In the 10^th round you should be targeting a player who appears in 150 games or a pitcher who throws 200 innings versus a reliever who you hope will pick up 30 saves (remember, even if a pitcher performs admirably, he is dependent on his team’s offense and pitching to end up with a scenario in which a save can even be generated – see Papelbon last season). (3) We can focus more on the skills of a hurler and not just his role with Solds. If the better arm is working the eighth inning you can roster that guy instead of having to worry about reaching at the draft to get the ninth inning guy. (4) This is for those of you who really worry about holds guys messing things up. The fact is that there aren’t more holds guys than saves guys, at least when we’re talking upper level options. It’s not like adding holds means that we’re cheapening the pool of pitchers. Here is the data.

In 2015 there were 24 men who posted 25 saves.
In 2015 there were 11 men who posted 25 holds.

In 2014 there were 21 men who posted 25 saves.
In 2014 there were 10 men who posted 25 holds.

In 2013 there were 23 men who posted 25 saves.
In 2013 there were 15 men who posted 25 holds.

Over the last three years there have been 68 seasons of 25 saves while there have been 36 seasons of 25 holds. That’s nearly double for the saves group.

So let’s get to it. Here are the Solds leaders from the 2015 season.

* Pitchers with 20+ saves in bold.

The top-4 men in Solds were all closers who crested 40 on the season. The No. 5 man on the list was the holds leader for the season. Tony Watson was the only man in the game with more than 34 holds. He crushed it alongside Mark Melancon in Pittsburgh. Moreover, in the top-12 of Solds there were only two “holds” guys.

As I see it, there is no issue at all with the top-25 other than the inclusion of the horrible Jim Johnson at No. 24. Johnson had a 4.46 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and a 6.75 K/9 mark. He wasn’t even a league-average arm. Hey, it’s not like Greg Holland was the balls last season either (3.83 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 5.24 BB/9 though he had 32 saves).

Kevin Jepsen is the only guy who had 15 saves and 20 holds. Wade Davis was very close missing out by two holds. Those were the only two men who went 15/15.

Do you find anything offensive with this list?

Remember, Solds is just one category for hurlers in the 5x5 fantasy game. We still have wins, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts to consider, so Solds isn’t the only measurement we utilize when judging the value of hurlers.

WEAKNESSES OF SOLDS?

Saves can be rewarded for poor efforts (two runs allowed, six base runners but three outs picking up the save). So why would you want to add another category such as holds, that can “reward” a pitcher for a poor effort? Fair point there.

There is an argument that closers are more skilled since more pitchers are eligible to get a save. To that end, check out this brief discussion about Solds and Tout Wars.

You might think that the last three outs mean more than three outs in the seventh inning. I think an out is an out. I don’t care when it happens in a game. But for the sake of argument, and to mollify those who think saves are paramount and vastly more important than holds, how about tweaking Solds a bit? Instead of saves and holds being equal how about we reward holds half the value of a save meaning you get one point for a save and half a point for a hold. If we go with that format here is the 2015 leaderboard (again, pitchers with 20+ saves are in bold).
 

Obviously in this setup closers dominate. Is that more to your liking? I still prefer the full point option rather than the half point play.

CONCLUSION

Solds isn’t perfect; not even close. Honestly, it might not even be ideal. I mean, saves themselves have a bit of white noise to them (I’ve touched on that a couple of times in this piece). Is it wise to pile on another category – holds – that also has inherent issues? Not ideal. Still, on balance, I do believe that adding holds to saves helps to level out the playing field when it comes to drafting and using relievers. It also opens up the player pool more which will lead to the need for a deeper understanding of hurlers. Any bozo can call out the name Craig Kimbrel on draft day. Why not create a simple setup with Solds that allows you to be able to focus more on the skills of a pitcher and use that as your predictive tool versus trying to figure out if a guy is going to be able to hold on to a ninth-inning role all season long?
 

Seems pretty obvious to me.