The following is an excerpt from the 2015 Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now:

Should You Doubt Jose Abreu?

By Ray Flowers

I get in a lot of trouble shooting off my mouth at times. Let me take that back. I never shoot my mouth off, unless it’s at a bar after too many Vodkatinis (it’s so damn hard to balance that glass when you’re a wee bit tipsy). I almost always have a valid reason for the position I hold, so when I say to be wary of Jose Abreu, you should take heed. Before the negative, the positive. Abreu won the ROY award in 2014, unanimously. Abreu led the majors in SLG (.581). Abreu hit 36 homers, the most by an AL rookie since Mark McGwire hit 49 in 1987. He hit .317. He also drove in 107 runs. He was an elite performer. Jose Abreu. Rookie of The Year, secret agent, fantasy star.

Abreu won’t sustain the level of success he had last season. History suggests this. A review of his performance in 2014 does as well. Strap in, get ready to be amazed and make sure to leave your mind open to consider that I might, just might, be right.



Abreu hit .317 in 2014 as a 27-year-old. No one thought he would bat that high as a big leaguer. How did he get there? Month by month follows:

.270 April

.241 May

.313 June

.374 July

.376 August

.298 September

Did you notice what stands out? Critically re-read those numbers. I will wait. See it?

Though Abreu hit .317 last season, he actually had only two months in which he matched his season long batting average. In fact, Abreu had as many months under .275 in 2014 as he did months in which he matched his season-long batting average. Put another way: for two months he was Nick Castellanos and for two months he was Ty Cobb. Nervous Yet?

Abreu had a .356 BABIP in 2014. Could he sustain that level moving forward? Possible but unlikely. Over the last five seasons there are only six men in baseball with a .356 BABIP (minimum 1,000 plate appearances). If we up that mark to 2,000 plate appearances, a mere 400 a year, only three men in the group that remain: Mike Trout  (.363), Chris Johnson  (.359) and Joey Votto  (.359). The odds of Abreu repeating his +.350 mark aren’t high. Nervous yet?


To read more of this article and 179+ more pages of Fantasy Baseball Bliss, get the  2015 Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide now. Best of all is that you can get the Draft Guide AND the 2015 MLB Assistant G.M. FREE with a $10 deposit to Fantasy Aces.