One of the peculiarities of this 2021 Fantasy Baseball Season is shaping up to be how far ahead of hitters pitchers seem to be. We are five weeks into the season and we have already seen not one but FOUR (and arguably five) no-hitters!  Conversely, the league batting average is hovering around .233, which would be the lowest of all-time should it continue. So, what is going on? Is it all about this new ball? Are pitchers getting less wear and tear on their arms due to 7 inning double headers?  Has Mother Nature given us too many April snowstorms?  Any number of things could be in play here, but my gut says this could be a time to make some trades. Underperforming hitters are bound to rebound as the weather warms, and pitchers are bound wear-down as the season progresses. Let's look at a few pitchers off to hot starts and whether or not to hold or move them.

Wade Miley threw a no-hitter on Friday vs. the Cleveland Indians. Seeing as how Wade Miley is still only rostered in 50% of Yahoo leagues, I think it's safe to say no one saw that coming. Miley threw a no-hitter with a 19% whiff rate and a 75% ground ball rate. Quite simply, Miley was able to limit hard contact, and his command was in top form. The problem with this for fantasy is that a pitcher who strikes out batters at a rate of less than seven per nine doesn't have much upside. Now there are a lot of positive signs here. His walk rate is at a career-low, and the 83.8 exit velo he has allowed is in the 95th percentile of the league. He also has the third-highest ground ball rate in the league. But, this is a man who has a career-ERA of 4.18 and a career walk rate of more than three per nine. This start is also only the third quality start he has made this year. Is it possible he can continue this excellent command? Sure. Am I going to bet on it? Nope. I am looking to see if I can turn Miley into a bat I think will heat up in May.

I always liked Tyler Anderson , and I was happy to see him leave Coors as his home ballpark last year. Anderson is surrendering a career-low .65 home runs per nine innings while striking out batters at a rate of more than eight per nine innings. He's also walking batters at a rate of 2.61 per nine, and he has a BABIP of .250, which says to me Tyler Anderson 's ERA is bound to go up but with his ability to limit the long ball, not by a lot. In his last outing, he went a full eight innings, so he's getting deep enough into games that he can log you the win, as long as the Pirates can cobble together some offense. Tyler Anderson is likely someone you picked up on the wire, and he's valuable whether you hold him or move him.

Kevin Gausman has been off to a great start with the surprising San Francisco Giants. His ERA is under two, his home run to flyball rate is only 9.3%, and he's striking out batters at a rate of more than nine per nine. His 95 MPH fastball looks crisp, his 84 MPH splitter has a 47% whiff rate, and his home ballpark favors pitchers. I really like Gausman, but he also has a .211 BABIP. I expect his ERA to regress, and if I need a bat, I am looking to move him, but not until after his next start versus the Pirates.

Now, for some hitters I expect to heat up:

All hitters at Coors, but especially Charlie Blackmon . In fact, the window may have already closed for getting Blackmon as he's been heating up this week. Over the past week, Blackmon raised his BA from .180 to .230, and statcast says his expected batting average is .300. The underlying metrics show Blackmon is poised to continue to improve. His average exit velocity is the highest of his career at 89.2, and his hard-hit rate is 46%, which is also the highest of his career. Blackmon is still showing plate discipline with only a career-best 13.2% strikeout rate, which is in the top-eight percent of the league, and a career-best 11.5% walk rate, which is in the top 27% of the league. He's a career .302 hitter at Coors,  and should I'm looking to grab him wherever I can as the weather heats up in Denver.

Dominic Smith is another hitter I have many eyes on. In 50 games in 2020, Smith hit .316 with 10 Homeruns, 27 runs, and 42 RBI.   That on-pace data is pretty impressive: 32 home runs and 132 RBI. His batting average and slugging were both in the top-five percent of the league, and he put up a barrel percentage of 13.3% with a 46.7% hard-hit rate. That data backs up his strong 89 game debut in 2019, telling me Dom Smith is a real major league player. Now this year, both he and the Mets are off to a bit of a slow start. Smith is batting only .222, but his expected batting average is .283, which is in the 82nd percentile of the league, and his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is in the 70th percentile. He's playing every day, and I expect Dom Smith to be cooking soon.

Finally, it's time to inquire about Kyle Tucker . Like Blackmon, Tucker had a great game recently, so the window may be closing,  but if the Kyle Tucker manager is frustrated, here is why you should make a move. Though Tucker is still striking out too much, he does have six home runs and 20 RBI on the season. He's also stolen two bases. His .188 batting average doesn't tell the whole story. He's hitting the ball hard, and well, he's just a bit been unlucky. Statcast says his expected Batting Average is .281, and his Expected slugging is .514.  His hard-hit rate is in the 78th percentile of the league, and his average exit velocity is in the 80th percentile. Seeing as how Tucker was the first Astro off the board in many drafts, it's likely the Tucker manager is growing impatient. 

Other hitters to target: Rougned Odor , Alec Bohm, & Bobby Dalbec.