Predicting a player's outcomes gets tricky at times due to all of the information. However, after underperforming in comparison to his underlying data, Marcell Ozuna turned in a massive 2020 during his debut with Atlanta. Ozuna led the National League in home runs (18), RBI (56) and total bases (145) while playing in every contest during the truncated season (60). He ranked second in hits (77), tied for second in extra-base hits (32), third across his whole slash line of .338/.431/.636 and his on-base plus slugging percentage (1.067) as well. Ozuna finished sixth in at-bats per home run (12.67) and tied for tenth in fWAR (fangraphs wins above replacement) despite being a flawed defender.

For reference purposes, Ozuna's 162-game paces last year put him on track for 49 home runs and 154 RBI. He's the first player since Giancarlo Stanton in 2017 to lead the National League in both categories. Thriving under pressure, Ozuna produced 25 RBI batting with two outs along with an impressive .333/.440/.619 slash over 56 such at-bats. After waiting out a slow moving free agent market, Ozuna returns to Atlanta for at least the next three seasons with an option for a fourth. This insulates not only Ozuna from too much regression to the mean, but also his teammates, such as Freddie Freeman .

Assessing how Ozuna builds on last year along with his pending migration in some categories affects his fantasy value, but in regards to counting statistics, staying in Atlanta certainly helps. Especially due to his familiarity with the team and his leadership in the locker room. Before leaving Fangraphs research, Ozuna turned in a career high .391 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) which presents itself as unsustainable over a full season. He also appeared a bit more aggressive with Atlanta with rises in his swinging strike and O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percentages. This also resonated within his contact rates with decreases in his overall contact and Z-Contact (in the strike zone).

According to Statcast, Ozuna produced 169 batted ball events with 26 barrels (15.4 percent), a robust 93 MPH average exit velocity and 54.4 percent hard hit rate, his best results in all three categories. His expected numbers which project based on quality of contact show slight regression in two categories but not the power. Ozuna registered a .315 expected batting average (xBA), .638 expected slugging (xSLG) and .417 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). Here's his zone profile with much of it in Statcast friendly red:

Noting his increased aggressiveness, Ozuna generated less zone contact and a reduction in chase contact rates in 2020. His swing and whiff percentages rose as a result. He also pulled the ball more but interestingly upped his opposite field percent in Atlanta. For a second straight season Ozuna cut his ground ball rate including a 37.3 percent rate in 2020 while increasing his line drive production for two consecutive seasons culminating in a 31.4 percent rate last year. He traded topped batted ball events (down 8.3 percent) for gains in solid (up 1.6 percent) and barrels (up 3.3 percent) with aplomb. In terms of his percentile ranks, it's tough to ignore Ozuna's terrific 2020 campaign:

- xwOBA - 99th percentile (fourth in MLB)

- xBA - 97th percentile (ninth in MLB)

- xSLG - 98th percentile (fifth in MLB)

- Barrels - 98th percentile (third in MLB)

- Barrel% - 94th percentile

- Exit velocity - 96th percentile (tied for 10th in MLB)

- Hard hit percentage - 97th percentile (ninth in MLB)

- Walk percentage - 88th percentile

Because small sample sizes can be deceiving, it's time to expand out Ozuna's results in order to assess his future. Starting with the second half of 2019 through last season, here are his numbers:

- Ozuna 2H 2019-through-2020: 112 games, 490 plate appearances, 66 runs, 27 home runs, 83 RBI, four stolen bases; .281/.382/.531, 14.1 BB%, 21.6 K%, .250 ISO, .384 wOBA

While these numbers appear a bit light, remember a fractured finger cost Ozuna 28 games in 2019. Again, pacing these out over 155 games, Ozuna would hit 37 home runs with 115 RBI in them. His improved walk percentage still resonates and here's his spray chart from these 112 contests:

And his radial chart displaying launch angle along with exit velocity. His power in the 21-to-33 degree launch angle range should not be ignored:

Of his 49 home runs since the start of 2019, 32 rate as no-doubters on Statcast (out of any MLB park) with a 65.3 percentage rate. Pretty impressive. Expanding to the last three years before delving into his projections, here are his numbers:

- Ozuna Last Three Years: 341 games, 1,457 plate appearances, 191 runs, 71 home runs, 238 RBI, 15 stolen bases; .277/.347/.486, 9.5 BB%, 19.5 K%, .209 ISO, .353 wOBA

Recalling his recent changes in approach along with producing more power, weighing his 112 games since the inception of the second half of 2019 versus his last three years can affect his predictive outcomes. Still, this note from last year's profile should not be ignored:

Prior to his signing with the Braves, Ozuna owned an average draft position after 100 but it’s likely to adjust as the market normalizes. However, buying into a rebound in batting average with the potential for a 90-run, 100-RBI and a 30-plus home run season makes sense. Heed the Statcast data, the three-year rates and his steady production for a bounce back in 2020.

His price point in 2021 remains vastly different than last year, but his projections support the recent gains:

There's some volatility in his average draft position in NFBC contests but with Ozuna staying in Atlanta, heed his numbers at the end of this chart:

His three most recent drafts coincided with his return to Atlanta. Some will be scared off of the increased price of Ozuna but his underlying data back up the spike in production. Hitting in a deep lineup and batting after 2020's MVP Freddie Freeman insulates Ozuna's counting statistics. Plan for his batting average to regress, but if Ozuna hits .280 or better with his power production, he's still worth reaching for in 2021.

Statistical Credits:

THE BAT X and THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski