One of last year’s biggest disappointments Rick Porcello could be a draft day bargain this season. Fantasy’s a fickle game as can be the folks who play it. Although Porcello yielded four earned runs in Seattle his last outing, he entered his start in Minnesota with a 3.70 ERA and a 3.26 FIP which suggested a potential rebound. Porcello tossed seven shutout innings allowing a hit and one strikeout with five strikeouts.

With his numbers migrating towards his FIP following this strong start, Porcello’s ERA dropped to 3.44 with a FIP of 3.21. Over his last five starts, Porcello’s produced an ERA of 2.81 with at least six innings pitched in all of them and two runs or fewer in four. He’s won nine games and pacing towards 19 in spite of the category being fluky but his 1.10 WHIP suggests Porcello’s back to his productive ways in 2018.

 

That Just Happened

In a much anticipated pitcher’s duel in the Bronx, both James Paxton and Luis Severino struggled with command along with home runs. Paxton threw 107 pitches lasting only five innings with 61 strikes resulting in nine strikeouts. However, here’s a look at his pitches outside the strike zone as called by the umpire:

 

When looking at the chart, there were at least six pitches not called strikes which not only prolongs at-bats, but rewards the hitters. Paxton did well to recover from giving up two-run home runs to both Aaron Judge and Miguel Andujar in the first inning.

Same goes for Luis Severino who did not record a quality start lasting 5.2 innings also throwing 107 pitches with 70 strikes. Here’s his chart for a comparison:

 

Unlike Paxton, Severino only had three-to-four strikes missed as a called ball. In spite of the rough day by the umpire, Severino notched his 11th win and the Yankees are 14 - 2 during his starts this season. His 2.24 ERA and 0.96 WHIP along with 123 strikeouts in over 104 innings only reinforces Severino’s emergence as a fantasy ace.

Fueling the Yankees surge of 17 wins over their last 21 games has been the bullpen. Aroldis Chapman saved his 22nd game on Thursday afternoon allowing a walk with a strikeout. Chapman’s converted 15 straight saves with his last 11 outings being scoreless spanning 9.1 innings with 15 strikeouts against three walks. Dellin Betances has whiffed 14 of the last 21 hitters he’s faced (66.7 strikeout percentage) along with recording 12 straight scoreless appearances.

But it’s not only the Yankees pitching, Aaron Judge launched his 19th home run driving in two during their four run first inning. Judge does much of his damage at home with a .359 average, 34 runs, 12 doubles, 13 home runs, 38 RBI and 36 walks while playing in the Bronx. Miguel Andujar added to his major league leading rookie extra-base hit total with his 10th home run upping his total to 35 on the season. Over his last 54 games, Andujar’s hitting .314 (66-for-210) with 33 runs, 23 doubles, 10 home runs and 29 RBI.

Nolan Arenado ’s heating up homering for the third straight game with each of them resulting in multiple hit outings. He’s seven for his last 13 with five runs, two doubles, three home runs and nine RBI. Kyle Freeland won his seventh game lasting six innings giving up five hits, two earned runs and four walks with four strikeouts. Colorado’s won nine home games since April 24th and Freeland’s accounted for four of them. Over his last 11 starts, Freeland’s produced a 2.90 ERA with seven wins and three losses.

After qualifying to be ranked in National League hitting categories, Brandon Nimmo entered game play third in on-base percentage, first in slugging, first in weighted on-base average and first in weighted runs created plus. Not too shabby for a player the Mets demoted earlier this season. He went 1-for-5 with an RBI single in the Mets loss.

Nelson Cruz did not homer but finished 2-for-3 with a double and scored two runs. He has hit a home run in seven of his last 11 games while hitting safely in 20 of his last 27 games. Cruz has 11 home runs with 23 RBI in them with a .299/.387/.670 slash line. Kyle Seager added his 13th home run with two RBI but has struggled to help his owners in the average category. Lying in the weeds, Ben Gamel ’s hitting .380 (30-for-79) his last 27 games with 12 runs, a home run, six RBI and four stolen bases.

Never overlooked, Mookie Betts crushed his 19th home run among his three hits during Boston’s win in Minnesota. He’s reached base eight times the last three games and recorded his 24th multi-hit game. Betts heads home where he owns a .405 average. Andrew Benintendi added his 13th home run with two RBI and has homered six times his last 18 games and driven in 16 his last 23.

 

Night Moves

As the rumors continue to churn, one linked the Phillies being interested in Adrián Béltre . Not only would his leadership benefit a young team, and manager, but he could help out fantasy owners with the move as well. Here’s a look at his spray chart this year including all hits and outs by fly ball or line drive only:

Note three field outs which could have left the yard in Philadelphia along with a double. There’s no guarantee this translates or Beltre ends up with the Phillies, but it fun to imagine.

Eddie Rosario sat out on Thursday due to shoulder discomfort but told beat writers he expects to play on Friday. Eduardo Escobar , who leads the majors in doubles with 32, left the game after being hit by a pitch in the elbow and it’s only a contusion as of this writing.

St. Louis placed Michael Wacha on the disabled list due to his strained oblique and activated John Gant . They’ve yet to announce a starter for Monday as the team deals with an arms shortage.

Not only will Clayton Kershaw make a rehab start on Saturday, so will Johnny Cueto . Ronald Acuna will initiate his rehab on Friday as he works his way back from a knee injury.

San Diego will activate Wil Myers from the disables list and optioned Franmil Reyes to the minors. This creates a crowded outfield for the Padres but Myers owners hope he will regain his productive ways from last year.

 

Burning Questions

Tonight marks Mike Trout ’s 1,000th game. He enters with a .308 average, .989 on-base plus slugging and 224 home runs. For a frame of reference, Mickey Mantle had a .315 average with a 1.000 OPS and 218 home runs after 1,000th game. Willie Mays hit .316 with a .975 OPS and 231 homers after his 1,000th. When will baseball fans appreciate how great Trout has been?

What type of outing will Carlos Martínez have in Milwaukee? He’s struggled with control since returning from the disabled list.

Can Madison Bumgarner bounce back at home versus the Padres?

Will Tyler Skaggs stay hot in a home start versus Toronto?

Be sure to stop back in the morning for the Round Up on Fantasy Alarm to stay ahead of your competition.

 

Statistical Credits:

MLB.com

Fangraphs.com

Stats.com/blog