Two catcher leagues prove challenging due to the demands of the position along with depth lacking identifying hitters who will not weigh down a fantasy offense. Since developing as a catcher requires learning how to handle a pitching staff, it often delays the progress of them as hitters, especially for fantasy purposes. 

Prior to 2021, Tyler Stephenson resided on sleeper lists due to his success over a small sample last season. He hit .294 with two home runs in eight games but with a strikeout rate of 45 percent providing warning signs of potential discipline concerns over a full season. However, after 68 games, he's hitting .281/.381/.432 with 34 runs, five home runs and 22 RBI with an 11.6 percent walk rate and 17.7 strikeout percentage. After a tough May, he's rebounded nicely without sacrificing discipline metrics: 

Over his last 10 games, he's hitting .364 (12-for-33) with three doubles, a home run and four RBI. Within this sample, he owns a .564 slugging percentage which should intrigue fantasy players most. He's also hit safely in 16 of his last 19 starts going 22-for-69 (.319) with six doubles, two home runs and nine RBI. Unlike many at his position, Stephenson's accrued 21 starts batting cleanup this year and in his most recent start, hit second. Batting in the top third of the lineup would only enhance his fantasy stock if this continues during the second half of the season. 

Looking into his batted ball profile and growth in his approach, discerning between a hot streak and the precipice of a breakout hang in the balance for the talented 24-year old. 

According to Statcast, he's produced 147 batted ball events with nine barrels (6.1 percent), a 33.3 sweet spot percentage and a 38.1 hard hit rate. Noting sweet spot grades quality of contact, Stephenson owns a .262 expected batting average, a .410 expected slugging and a .343 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) only slightly below his actual (.359 wOBA). Some slight regression could be possible, but not any collapse should be on the horizon. 

Beneath these numbers, he's seeing less pitches in the strike zone but improved his zone swing percentage by over 11 percentage points and upped his zone contact by 13.5 percent to 89.5 so far this season. Although his chase percentage and chase contact rate also tick up, it's not egregious and he actually produces well putting bad pitches into play when viewing his swing and take chart:
 

Taking into account his Fangraphs statistics as well, Stephenson cut his swinging strike rate to six percent through his first 68 contests while raising his contact percentage to 84.4 percent (11.1 better than 2020) and increased his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percent to 91.5 versus 75.1 last season. Intriguing to say the least. 

Like many at his position, power may be the last part of his game to develop. He only hit six home runs at Double-A over 89 games spanning 363 plate appearances in 2019. But, he's one away from matching this total in the majors this year with eyes on double digits by the end of 2021. Still two years from his power peak, things seem to be progressing rather well for Stephenson. 

He's not reliant on pulling the ball for power and hits in an uber-friendly fantasy ballpark in Cincinnati. Here's his spray chart for 2021 displaying his ability to hit home runs to all fields: 
 

When checking his rest-of-the-season projections, only one seems aggressive in terms of playing time. But, Stephenson's wrestling at-bats away from Tucker Barnhart, a trend which should continue in the second half of the season. Here's his projections for the remainder of the season from five sites on Fangraphs with his in season results through game action on July sixth included: 

It may be a stretch, but taking the over on Stephenson hitting double digits in home runs this year. With continued exposure to major league pitching he's met every challenge and even adjusted after a rough May in the splits chart at the beginning of this breakdown. Even if he finishes the season hitting .270, the burgeoning power, productive lineup and ballpark insulates his fantasy value. He may not be a household name for fantasy yet, but within the next two years could be. 

For now, monitor his power in the second half and hope the discipline gains hold. If so, he could hit 15-to-18 home runs as soon as 2022 with a .275 average and complete the breakout he's currently sowing the seeds for. Hopefully it will be our little secret. 

Statistical Credits: 

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

THE BAT and THE BAT X courtesy of Derek Carty

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski