The Monaco Grand Prix, perhaps the most famous race in the world, is up next for F1. While the weather has been absolutely perfect so far, that likely isn’t the case on Sunday. The forecast is calling for rain during the race on Sunday. That can only introduce more chaos to a race that can get chaotic in a hurry.
F1 DFS Strategy for Monaco
It’s a pretty well-known fact that the pole-sitter is in a great spot for the win at this track. There’s a lack of passing that’s infamous through the tight corners and tighter straights. In fact if we harken back to the 2013 race, there was zero position changes at all. Now, we’re not likely to see that happen this week as the new cars have been better at passing, even on tough tracks, but there’s a chance. There’s also reliability issues to be concerned with. We’ve seen both Ferrari and Red Bull, along with a few other teams, have problems with cars retiring early and mechanical issues. This race is one that can make those issues standout more. So how are we building lineups? The pole-sitter will be the highest played driver. It won’t even be close. So in order to maximize scoring, we’ll have to go with the chalk for most of our plays and then fill in the drivers that are starting in the front half of the grid for the most part. One other thing to keep in mind is that, experience makes a difference here. Drivers that have more experience than others can move up through the field, even in slightly worse equipment, than drivers who are less experienced. With this being a chalkier race, we can take risks on drivers that showed better speed than where they qualified and hope that either the rain or pit strategy can help them gain track position.
Monaco Track Layout
Below is a map of the 2.07-mile, 19-turn layout of the Monaco circuit. It’s remained nearly unchanged since 1929 and especially since 1953 which is the last time it wasn’t on the F1 schedule. There is plenty of elevation change throughout the lap with tricky downhill braking sections and uphill climbs. However, there is only one DRS zone, the front stretch, and there’s only a few run-off spots.
Captain Plays
These plays make the most sense as captain, but can also be played in regular driver spots as well.
Charles Leclerc — P1 — $17,400
Pole-sitter at Monaco. That’s really all that needs to be said. It’s his home track, he’s been fastest in each free practice and on his last lap in Qualifying, before the red flag came out, he was actually faster than his pole winning time. There is concern of the Monaco curse with him, but let’s roll the dice as he’ll be CHALK.
Carlos Sainz — P2 — $14,100
Sainz got into a wreck to close out Q3 but the damage seemed minimal and he avoided a grid penalty as well. Sainz has been a driver to make a few too many unforced errors of late but that shouldn’t be the case on Sunday. If the curse of Monaco bites Leclerc again, Sainz could be in a spot to lead laps, win, and get a bonus. There is risk here though as he likely doesn’t catch Leclerc without a car issue.
Sergio Perez — P3 — $12,900
Perez was the only driver to really challenge Leclerc all weekend and was challenging for pole before an oversteer issue in Q3. If Red Bull can fix the car up well, the speed should still be there for Perez to challenge for the win. Let’s forget about team orders this week given that Verstappen has been notably slower than Checo all weekend. If Perez can go toe-to-toe with Leclerc, there are points to be gained here in nice chunks.
Sebastian Vettel — P9 — $5,700
Really? Seb a captain pick? Well, he’s been phenomenal around this circuit in his career. He’s also been speedy this weekend, having run top-10 much of the practices and qualifying. Vettel is also in a great spot to beat his teammate who’s all the way back in 18th to start. If we’re looking for cheap Defeated Teammate bonus points, and a bit extra for placing inside the top-10, Vettel is a good captain pick.
Driver Plays
Max Verstappen — P4 — $11,200
Okay, who’s shocked to see Verstappen in the playbook? It’s not been a great weekend for him as he’s struggled to outrun his teammate, let alone the Ferraris. However, it’s still Verstappen and Red Bull and he is leading the World Championship battle. Verstappen didn’t start on pole last year and still won, he’s not started on pole a few times this year and still won. If things play into Red Bull’s hands, like last week, Verstappen will still be in position to lead some laps and move into the podium spots.
Valtteri Bottas — P12 — $8,200
It was a rough qualifying session for Bottas. He ran inside the top-10 much of the weekend and then qualified P12. He was mainly screwed because of a timing issue and lap traffic. Yes, this is a tough track to pass at, but Bottas’ car has been great all year and he’s not been afraid to get elbows out and make moves. Let’s also not forget about the forecast and if he can avoid issues in the rain, there could be some spots to move up as others are involved in the chaos. There’s also the teammate bonus he should easily get as well.
Lando Norris — P5 — $7,400
Norris saved his best for last. He didn’t look quite as fast on Friday, though still in the top-10. Then came FP3 and Qualifying on Saturday where Norris was running in the top-five. Starting this far up at Monaco is a great spot for Norris, but so is the forecast. Norris has excelled in wet conditions in his F1 career. Daniel Ricciardo has also struggled this weekend, giving Norris wiggle room for the five-point bonus.
Fernando Alonso — P7 — $6,800
Alonso, like Vettel, has quite a lot of experience on this circuit. This is a circuit were experience pays dividends, despite the car under them as they can hustle it around the corners in different ways to make up time and speed. Alpine though, this year, has been great in slow-speed corner tracks and that’s just what we have here at Monaco. One concern here is that Alonso has yet to beat his teammate, even when starting ahead of him. However, if he can use his experience to his advantage, we might get that bonus for the first time this year.
Esteban Ocon — P10 — $6,400
Ocon, Alonso’s teammate, has moved up at least a few spots in all but one race this year. Even when passing was tough like at the Miami and the Spanish GPs. He’ll be starting P10 on Sunday, and while that’s the best time he’s put down this weekend, it’s still a benefit at Monaco to start in the front half of the grid. There’s also the fact that even when he’s started behind Alonso, he’s still beaten him to the line every race.
Pierre Gasly — P17 — $4,600 or Yuki Tsunoda — P11 — $4,200
Gasly has never finished outside of the top-seven at Monaco. That’s a tall task this week given his starting spot. Starting that far back isn’t great here, though the time for his final lap would’ve been good enough to land him in the top-10, just like he’s been running at practice all week. Why didn’t it count? His teammate. Tsunoda caused a red flag, as ticky tack as it may have been, that caused the end of Q2 to end at a terrible time. Tsunoda did run P11 in qualifying but trailed Gasly all weekend. So why are both in the playbook? Well, if Gasly finds the practice speed and some passing room, he can post some nice points with Spot vs. Grid Position points and perhaps a defeated teammate bonus. However, if Tsunoda holds serve, he gets the bonus and perhaps a spot in the top-10.
Constructor Plays
Ferrari and Red Bull are playable each week as the two best teams on the grid each race. This section will breakdown some of the other options to differentiate yourself.
Mercedes - $9,500
Mercedes is in an interesting spot this week. They’re at least $1,500 cheaper than the top two constructors but are $4,000 more than the next closest. The same can be said for their scoring, averaging 26.3 points a race, 10 less than Ferrari and 17 more than the next closest. The speed, and setups, this week is somewhere in between as well as the slow-speed corners have caused them some issues. If they can get the setup right on the cars though, there’s enough skill and speed with this team to lockdown two top-six finishes and another good points day.
McLaren - $5,500
It’s been an up-and-down weekend for McLaren, but there’s promise here. Norris is starting in the top-five and in FP1, Ricciardo put himself P7 on the speed charts. The rest of the weekend hasn’t been great, but if they get the setup right for Ricciardo, he’s been great at Monaco previously. There’s also the manner of the forecast and how both McLaren drivers are usually better in the rain than most. That could come in to help moving up through the field, and thus getting us more points.
Alpine - $4,500
What a weekend it’s shaping up to be for Alpine. Both drivers are starting inside the top-10 and they’re coming off the best weekend of their year at Barcelona. If both can hold on to their spots, and move up a spot or two in the finishing order, they could surpass the 15 points they posted last weekend.