What a crazy weekend it’s been in Montreal so far. Chaos has been all over the garage and grid for the F1 Canadian Grand Prix at the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve. From a few teams taking grid penalties for changing out parts on the car to a rain-soaked Saturday session. This weekend has had a bit of everything so far. Not to mention the focus on porpoising coming off of the serious issues in Azerbaijan last Sunday. While this is one of the best circuits on the Formula schedule, the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve hasn’t seen a race in three years — apparently it’s packing all of the missed chaos into one weekend. What does this mean for DFS? Well, we’ll break down the DFS strategies and the top drivers and teams to play for the race coming up.

Canadian Grand Prix Track Layout and Guide

In the middle of the St. Lawrence River, not only is the city of Montreal completely encapsulated, but there’s also a great F1 track. Ile Notre Dame is a park most of the year but converts to a spectacular F1 track once a year — Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve. The 4.3-km or 2.7-mile layout of 14 turns is mostly flat, but that doesn’t mean it’s any less challenging. The straights are reasonably long and the turns are fairly tight and slow, including the famed hairpin that is Turn 10. A few chicanes also give interesting passing chances including coming out of Turn 14 while trying to avoid the Wall of Champions. There are two DRS zones on the track.

What’s the Weather in Montreal This Weekend?

It’s been a mixed bag so far this weekend in Quebec. That’s typical of summer in this part of Canada. On Friday the temps were around 80 degrees and the sun was out most of the day, then came Saturday. The temps didn’t crack 60 and the rain came in droves, including during practice and qualifying. On Sunday though it’ll be a middle ground. The temps are supposed to be in the upper-60s with no chance of rain.

F1 DFS Strategy for Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve

What does the layout and the weather mean for DFS strategy? It mainly means that we can take what we saw in Friday’s free practices more seriously than Saturday’s. However, with qualifying having taken place in the rain, the field is as messy as the track was. This means we’re likely in line for a wild card weekend in F1 DFS which is a welcomed sight after the chalky weekend that was Azerbaijan. That being said, with 70 laps scheduled for the race, those starting up front should be able to lead a good amount of laps throughout the race with us expecting the winner to come from the first two rows. That is unless absolute chaos happens anew on Sunday. Spots vs. Grid Position points, or what’s better known as position differential, should be a major differentiator in the scoring this week with some big names starting further back than expected. As always, figuring out which teammate will best their colleague is key to bonus points as well.

Formula 1 DFS Canadian Grand Prix Top Plays

This week we’re going to try something a bit different with the write-up, we’ll analyze each team and driver for said team together. I’ll give you my thoughts on how the race plays out for each team and where the value lies. They’ll be listed in descending salary order based on constructor pricing on DraftKings.

Red Bull

Drivers: Max Verstappen ($16,800 D: $11,200) Sergio Perez ($15,900 D:$10,600)

Constructor: $11,500

Starting Spots: Verstappen P1, Perez P13

What else do we have to say about Red Bull at this point? They’ve been the dominant team in F1 basically all year and no matter the track type, they dominate. Verstappen over the last year and half has been basically either the best or second-best driver in every race and yet again, he’s got the fastest car by aways  this weekend. Expect him to get the hole shot at the start and just keep running away and hiding like he’s on a Sunday drive. Checo has been right there with Verstappen this year and is second in the World Championship battle as a result. However, he’s not shown quite as much pace this weekend, just like last weekend at Baku on a similar style track. He’ll have the Spot vs. Grid Position upside while Verstappen should lead most of, if not all, the laps Sunday. Combined it’s shaping up to be another big points day from Red Bull. While Perez did put his car into the barriers in Q2, the car should be fixed up for Sunday just fine.

Ferrari

Drivers: Charles Leclerc ($15,300 D: $10,200) Carlos Sainz ($14,100 D: $9,400)

Constructor: $10,800

Starting Spots: Leclerc P19, Sainz P3

It’s been an absolutely disastrous three week stretch for Ferrari from Barcelona and the double DNF to the horrendous strategy at Monaco to another double DNF at Baku. Now, it’s gotten tougher this weekend with Leclerc taking a heap ton of penalties for swapping out power unit components. With those penalties, LEC starts in the last row of the grid with his work cutout for him. However, in the dry, he did have good pace in the Ferrari, as did Sainz — both running in the top-five in FP1 and FP2. There’s hope that if Ferrari can manage pit strategy and the reliability issues stay away for weekend that Ferrari could be in for a bounce back. Listen, the strategy is there for them to get a double top-five finish, they just have to make the right calls. Leclerc will still be popular, simply with how popular Ferrari is in terms of a fanbase, but there’s also value there if he gets back to top-five and Sainz has another unforced error. As for Sainz, if he stays the course a podium finish should be his.

Mercedes

Drivers: George Russell ($13,500 D: $9,000) Lewis Hamilton ($12,600 D: $8,400)

Constructor: $9,300

Starting Spots: Russell P8, Hamilton P4

There has been a ton of talk about Mercedes this week, mainly regarding porpoising and whether they were doing it intentionally. This weekend, so far, it seems to be back under control, thankfully for Hamilton’s back. What else seems to be back this weekend is the pace in the silver arrows. While Russell has continued his streak of finishing inside the top-five in every race, it’s hard to say it’s solely based on race pace given Ferrari’s and Red Bull’s struggles early on. One thing to keep in mind this weekend is just how good Hamilton has been here in the past with several straight wins and now starting P4 he could be in shape to challenge for a win, if things break his way. Russell should be in shape to keep his top-five streak going as well starting P8. It was a miss-pricing of Russell last weekend at Baku that made him so chalky and while the pricing for him has been changed, somewhat, Hamilton is now the cheapest he’s been all year, likely as a result of his comments about how crappy the car’s been. That, along with his starting spot, might make him popular Sunday for DFS.

McLaren

Drivers: Daniel Ricciardo ($8,400 D: $5,600) Lando Norris ($11,700 D: $7,800)

Constructor: $5,700

Starting Spots: Ricciardo P9, Norris P14

Do we know what to make of McLaren yet? It seemed like last week they were more interested in trying to figure out which of their drivers were faster rather than how they stacked up against the field. For the most part, that’s been the case all season as they only have two double top-10 finishes to their credit this year, though there’s some extenuating circumstances involved for a couple more. In general though, it’s seemed as though if Norris was comfortable with the car Ricciardo wasn’t and vice versa. All that being said though, they could be in line for another double top-10 finish this weekend with both drivers running in or very near to the top-10 in FP1 and FP2 with Ricciardo winning FP1 and Norris barely edging him out by .046 seconds in FP2. With the way the field has split up due to qualifying, this could be a sneaky good points week for McLaren who’s best points day came at Australia, which is a tad similar to the tight, park-like, setup for Montreal.

Alpine

Drivers: Esteban Ocon ($9,000 D: $6,000) Fernando Alonso ($10,200 D: $6,800)

Constructor: $5,000

Starting Spots: Ocon P7, Alonso P2

It’s been an entirely different Alpine team the last several races. In large part, that’s due to a rejuvenated and dare we say resurgent Fernando Alonso. In the first four races of the year, Alonso cost you a total of seven points (-7) to play him, since then he’s increased his point total each week totaling 35 DK points. Also in the last two races he’s beaten his teammate for the first times all year. For Ocon’s part, he’s been relatively consistent — posting 12 or more points five times. This weekend though, it appears it’s another Alonso weekend as he ran P5, P3, P1 in FP1, FP2, and FP3 respectively. The Alpines were the fastest straight-line speed cars last week in Baku and were very hard to pass in the tight corners as well. Hmmm…why does that sound good for this week too? Oh right, Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve is very similar to Baku. If Alonso can keep the speed up, and get wide in the corners, he could be staring at a podium finish. Ocon though, hasn’t been quite as quick and we’re just hoping he stays in the top-10. They could be a sneaky constructor hoping Alonso maximizes the finish points but so far they’re highest point total of the year is 15, which doesn’t usually cut it to make it to the top of a GPP. That being said though, if Alonso finishes P3 and Ocon P7, that’s a 28-point day for Alpine.

AlphaTauri

Drivers: Pierre Gasly ($9,600 D: $6,400) Yuki Tsunoda ($7,200 D: $4,800)

Constructor: $4,500

Starting Spots: Gasly P15, Tsunoda P20

What a wild week it’s been for AlphaTauri going all the way back to last Sunday when they duct taped part of Tsunoda’s DRS rear wing flap back on. Then Pierre Gasly gets known by Pedro Gaseoso in a Spanish newspaper. Then this weekend unfolds. AlphaTauri has had speed throughout the whole time, especially on the straights, but the results haven’t fully been realized. Gasly has flashed top-six speed in the dry and top-two in the wet conditions but is starting P15 instead. Tsunoda had to take some many new power unit parts that he’s starting in the rear of the field. We saw Tsunoda fly back up through the field last week at Baku before the DRS issue, sapped his upside. If that’s the case again this week, he could be a very good value. However, if folks have last week in mind, he’ll be popular. Gasly on the other hand has been having a great stretch of races and is now locked into his ride for next year. That should help continue the good run of races this weekend as he has good Spot vs. Grid Position upside as well. They could be a very popular constructor play right up there with Red Bull.

Alfa Romeo

Drivers: Guanyu Zhou ($4,800 D: $3,200) Valtteri Bottas ($11,100 D: $7,400)

Constructor: $4,100

Starting Spots: Zhou P10, Bottas P11

Are we in for a Zhou breakout this weekend? Aside from the first three races of the year in which he finished P10, P11, P11 respectively, it’s not been great. The opposite can be said for Bottas who’s been the model of consistency nearly every week. Bottas has only missed F1 points twice this year while Zhou’s only earned them once. All of this being said, Saturday’s wet weather was a bigger friend to Alfa Romeo’s times than the dry weather was on Friday. They ran significantly better with inters and wet tires on than the standard slicks. If they want to both capitalize on their solid starting spots, they’ll need to find race for Sunday in dry conditions. Overall I have more hope that Bottas can have a better race given his consistency throughout the year. He didn’t get a timed lap in in FP2 as they were fixing an issue with the car. Given their pace on Friday and who’s behind them in the grid though, it’d be contrarian to play either driver or constructor.

Aston Martin

Drivers: Lance Stroll ($5,100 D: $3,400) Sebastian Vettel ($7,500 D: $5,000)

Constructor: $3,600

Starting Spots: Stroll P17, Vettel P16

It was a surprisingly bad qualifying effort from the green Red Bull — er, Aston Martins. They ran incredibly well in practice on Saturday morning and then failed to make it out of Q1 just two hours later. Here’s the good news though, they were both top-12 cars, mainly top-10, on Friday in the dry, warm conditions. With Montreal being a circuit where overtaking can happen and pit strategy can make a difference, we should see both cars make a run at top-10 finishes. We also should keep in mind that his is a home race for Lance Stroll. Vettel has been excellent here and nearly one here last race (three years ago) as well. There is plenty of pace and value here with Aston Martin this weekend.

Haas F1

Drivers: Kevin Magnussen ($7,800 D: $5,200) Mick Schumacher ($6,000 D: $4,000)

Constructor: $3,300

Starting Spots: Magnussen P5, Schumacher P6

Just how crazy was qualifying and Saturday as a whole? Look at the Haas starting spots. I mean just look. Sure we’re used to seeing Magnussen starting inside the top-10 but Schumacher? Apparently that chat the team had with him about not wrecking every race got through, at least for the moment. Here’s the only problem with those starting spots though — they likely don’t hold. The fastest they ran all weekend was in FP2 when they posted P14 and P15 on the speed charts. Even in the wet practice prior to qualifying they weren’t this quick. If we get a Montreal race without a lot of overtaking, they could be sneaky budget plays but there is still decent risk with that. The other risk? They’ve yet to both finish in the points in a race in terms of playing Haas as a constructor. Who knows though, if things go their way for once this year, this could be a breakout weekend for a team that sorely needs one as the last team to bring updates to the track.

Williams

Drivers: Alexander Albon ($6,600 D: $4,400) Nicholas Latifi ($4,500 D: $3,000)

Constructor: $3,000

Starting Spots: Albon P12, Latifi P18

There’s not a lot to say about Williams at this point. In fact, they’re making more noise off the track for the Oscar Piastri rumors for next year than their performances. That being said, Albon is a viable budget pick. In FP1 he posted speeds about where he qualified in the rain on Saturday which indicates that as drivers flip spots in the field, Albon should hold his ground or perhaps sneak into the top-10. The car was good at gaining spots in a similar setup last week meaning Albon has some budget-saving appeal but that’s about it here. Plus it’s almost guaranteed he gets the five-point defeated teammate bonus, even with Latifi on home soil.