F1 DFS: Azerbaijan Grand Prix Playbook

Baku. The city that sits on the edge of both Asia and Europe as the capital of Azerbaijan is the host city for this week’s F1 race. It’s been known as a major challenge for drivers and teams as well as a chaotic circuit. It’s only hosted four F1 Grands Prix, but all four have been full of action on the long, tight, racing layout. F1 DFS has been very interesting this year and it’ll only get more interesting at Baku given the race histories here.

Azerbaijan DFS Strategy

This week’s strategy is simple. Incorporate chaos into your plans. This year has been full of it already on fairly standard tracks, now comes the incredibly challenging and tight Baku Circuit. In addition to the chaos, there are plenty of chances to overtake over the course of the race. The straights on this track allow for it as well as some dive bomb moves in the more open of the turns can allow for passing. The other thing that helps with overtaking? Drivers over-driving the entry to corners and running in the run-off areas, thereby giving up their spot. With the track being so long, it’s one of the shorter races in terms of laps on the schedule with 55 for the scheduled length.

Baku Track Layout

The Azerbaijan Grand Prix is known for its chaotic action. It’s also known for high speed straights and tight, low-speed corners. The first half of the layout is full of straights linked by 90-degree corners. The second half of the track is filled with the castle section which features some tricky corners, tight racing quarters, and some elevation changes through the corners. Linking those two halves together is a 1.4-mile straight which is the longest in F1. Two DRS zones are in the first half of the track to help with the overtaking chances.

Practice To Qualifying

The chart below shows where each driver finished based on lap time in each of the three practice sessions and then qualifying. It averages out the practice sessions and compares the qualifying spots to practice speeds. It’s just an idea of who may have made adjustments or outperformed the rest of their weekend in qualifying. Track position is still king in F1 but less so here than other tracks we’ve seen so far on the calendar.

Playbook

Captain Plays

Any driver listed in the captain section can also be played in the regular driver spots as well. It’s just they’re worth the extra 1.5x points from this roster spot.

Charles Leclerc - $17,100

Leclerc is on the pole for the fourth-straight race. That hasn’t really helped him to wins though. Ferrari’s race management has been questionable to say the least and when they’ve had the race under control, like Barcelona, car issues have arisen. Leclerc has won here twice though, once in F2 and once in F1 and if Ferrari can just straighten things out on the pit wall, this should be another win from Leclerc with a great shot of laps led.

Sergio Perez - $15,300

He’s coming off a huge win at Monaco last time out. He’s also coming off a contract extension with Red Bull. Things are looking up for Checo. You know why else they’re looking up? He’s been the fastest Red Bull this weekend at each practice and is starting P2 ahead of his teammate. Perez is also the defending champion at this track after Verstappen’s tire blew on the final lap. It’s at a point where, team orders might not make much sense for Red Bull since Perez is only 15 points behind Verstappen for the Championship lead, and just six behind Leclerc for second. Expect Checo to be able to lead some laps and have a shot at winning.

Fernando Alonso - $10,200

In FP1 and FP2, Alonso had a top-five car, then Saturday happened. He ran P11 in FP3 and qualified P10. If he can get back to the top-five speed from Friday, in conditions on Sunday that are similar to Friday’s conditions, we have value here. He outpaced Ocon in Friday’s sessions and said this setup on the car is the best one he’s had this year. He’s coming off having beaten his teammate last weekend for the first time all season and that mojo should keep going this weekend.

Sebastian Vettel - $6,300

Vettel hasn’t finished worse than P4 here in any race. Two of those have come with Aston Martin. This weekend he’s been a bit slower than he’s been previously, however the track history is too much to ignore. He’ll start P9 on Sunday and has beaten his teammate in three of the five races he’s run this year. If he’s going to keep his run of finishing inside the top-four going here, it’ll take some seriously good breaks, but all we’re really looking for is to move up a few spots and finish better than Lance Stroll.

Driver Plays

Max Verstappen - $11,000

It’s been a weird weekend for Verstappen. He’s been quick in practice, running P3 each session, and then qualified P3. What’s been weird about it? He’s still behind both a Ferrari and his teammate in Sergio Perez. While he’s still leading the World Championship standings, he’s again playing second fiddle to his teammate in speed. He was in position to win last year before a tire went down late. He should be in place to lead some laps and perhaps win or finish P2. He’s finished on the podium in 23 of the last 29 races and last race’s P3 is the first time not being 1-2 in the span.

George Russell - $8,600

There’s not much to say with Russell at this point other than he’s finished in the top-five every race. It hasn’t mattered what the practice speeds were or the track type. He’s still been in the top-five all year and beaten Lewis Hamilton every race except for the opener. This weekend, despite Toto Wolff saying he wants a flat track, Russell has still shown improving speed and made some nice moves to fight through traffic in qualifying. He’s put up between 16-23 points every race as well while averaging this price point.

Valtteri Bottas - $7,400

It’s been an off-weekend for Bottas. That much is clear. The Alfa Romeos haven’t shown great speed so far but Bottas has outpaced his teammate, for most of the weekend. Bottas has also beaten his teammate all but one weekend this year. If he can get the better race run, he should pull that off again. However, this is where Guanyu Zhou comes in at $3,200 as a contrarian play. The one weekend that Zhou outran his teammate was Saudi Arabia, though that was due to a car issue for Bottas. If Zhou can use the better starting spot to stay in front of Bottas, there’s a good shot at five points for super cheap salary.

Esteban Ocon - $6,400

If we like Alonso in the captain spot, and further down have Alpine written up, we’ve got to include Ocon right? Yep. Ocon hasn’t been quite as fast as his teammate this weekend as you can see above, however Ocon has been Alonso in every race but one this year. There’s also the shot to get Spots vs. Grid Position points from Ocon here if he can move up into the top-10 by race’s end, which he has the speed to do.

Kevin Magnussen - $5,800

It’s not been a sexy weekend for K-Mags this in Baku. He’s run no better than P13 in practice and qualified P16. However, it’s still been a better weekend than his teammate. All we’re looking for from Magnussen this weekend is to finish better than Schumacher and potentially sneak in a points finish, though finishing P12 or P13 gets bonus points. Yes, it’s been Schumacher beating Magnussen each of the last three races, however, it’s taken crashes and retirements for that to happen. Keep the car clean, and it’s a good points day here.

Pierre Gasly - $5,200 or Yuki Tsunoda - $4,600

We’re splitting hairs between these two this weekend, and have been all season. They both averaged basically the same practice ranking through FP1 and FP2 and qualified similarly for the race. Tsunoda has beaten Gasly four times this year, to Gasly’s beating him thrice. However, a couple of those could be flipped if not for bad pit strategy and/or Gasly wrecking out at Miami late. They both have run well here in the past and should run well here again. It’s going to come down to who gets the better start and if they keep the cars clean. If you want a touch of savings lean Tsunoda, if you want slightly better consistent speed and a tad better starting spot, lean Gasly.

Lance Stroll - $3,400

It was a bad end to qualifying for Stroll. How bad? He actually crashed twice. He went into the barrier once and then, on flat-spotted tires, went even harder into the wall trying to drive it back to pit lane. Why is he in the playbook then? Well, at practice, he posted P12 and P13 speed in all three sessions and will start P19. That gives him some nice Spot vs. Grid Position upside, assuming the car is good to go for Sunday. Even when he’s started P19, like he did at Bahrain and Melbourne, he finished P12 and beat his teammate. There is some sneaky upside here.

Constructor Plays

Red Bull - $11,400

Red Bull is feeling pretty good about their setups this weekend. They’ve had better straight line speed this year than the rest of the field. The low-speed corners have been so-so this year, but with not a lot of overtaking chances for half of the layout, they simply have to hold-off Ferrari there to move-up. It could be another strong day for Red Bull as we harken back to what happened in Saudi Arabia, a track similar to Baku.

Ferrari - $10,900

If Ferrari can figure out how to call a race, they should be able to run 1-2 by the end of this one.  Both drivers have had good speed all weekend, though Sainz needs a bit more confidence than speed. Leclerc has been the fastest in race pace much of the weekend and will be starting on the pole. That gives him the upside to lead a bunch of laps, if not all of them. However, Ferrari has been on the pole five times this year but just two wins coming into this weekend.

Alpine - $5,000

Alpine brought major upgrades to their cars this weekend and it appears to be working. This is the fastest we’ve seen Alpine run through all three free practice sessions and qualifying. The best part is that the price hasn’t changed much for them in the last few weeks. Alpine has pulled off the double top-10 twice this year but it likely should’ve been at least four times. This week should be the third. Both drivers have averaged top-10 speed in practice and have some room to move up in the field as well.

Alphatauri - $4,100

It could be the best day of the year for Alphatauri. They showed up with great speed from the jump and it just kept showing up throughout practice and qualifying. That sets up well for the race. They have yet to have a double top-10 this year, but this should be the weekend for them to nab their first given the speed they’ve shown in all three sectors of the track. Saving money and getting a double top-10 bonus and good finish spots is a nice value in DFS.