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ECSTATIC (World rank: #46) vs. EYEBALLERS (World rank: #102) - 5:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: ECSTATIC (-170) | EYEBALLERS (+130)

Map Handicap: ECSTATIC -1.5 (+180) | EYEBALLERS +1.5 (-250) 

This is an online best-of-three series for Elisa Invitational Fall 2022 - Swiss Round 4 (Teams with a 1-2 record). Losing team is eliminated.

ECSTATIC - Rating at event: kraghen 1.14 | maNkz 1.13 | Cabbi 0.95 | Queenix 0.94 | Daffu N/A

ECSTATIC - Rating past three months: Cabbi 1.10 | kraghen 1.02 | maNkz 1.01 | Queenix 0.96 | Daffu N/A

EYEBALLERS - Rating at event: Sapec 1.13 | JW 1.00 | Svedjehed 1.00 | SHiNE 0.92 | flusha 0.90

EYEBALLERS - Rating past three months: Sapec 1.09 | JW 1.00 | Svedjehed 1.00 | flusha 0.99 | SHiNE 0.96

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other.

Prediction: EYEBALLERS win 2-1.

Last time we saw ECSTATIC play, they got completely outclassed at the IEM Road to Rio RMR. They didn’t win a single map at the event and even lost 0-16 against G2. As far as this event goes, ECSTATIC’s last outing against SAW was also a disaster. SAW swept 2-0 and ECSTATIC only managed to win six rounds on their own map pick of Vertigo. ECSTATIC also started CT on Ancient against SAW and failed to win the half. Overall, this team has not been impressive, and now it looks like Daffu is back in the lineup after not having played since June. Daffu has a 1.00 Rating in 2022 across 134 maps played, so it’s hard to expect much from him. With this projected lineup, ECSTATIC would not even have a primary AWPer without brzer. Thus, I really don’t feel comfortable backing ECSTATIC as a favorite. On the other side, this EYEBALLERS lineup has played 101 maps together (including as part of Hellslayers) and they have a 51-50 W/L record during that time. They have really struggled on Mirage, but ECSTATIC should ban that map to start, which should open up the map pool a bit for EYEBALLERS. Ancient has been EYEBALLERS’ favorite map with a 53.3% T round win percentage and a 77.5% 5v4 conversion rate in the past three months, though they have lost three in a row on that map against Aurora, Enterprise, and Nexus. Those losses were all close battles against solid teams, so I do expect EYEBALLERS to get back on track on Ancient. All things considered, this feels like a winnable series for EYEBALLERS as the underdogs, and they are my preferred team to target.

  • Sapec lead EYEBALLERs at this event with 0.15 opening kills per round and 26.7% opening duel attempts.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

Sapec ($8,400) |  JW ($7,800) | Svedjehed ($7,000) | Cabbi ($8,200) | flusha ($6,000) | kraghen ($7,400) | SHiNE ($4,800) 

 

Sprout (World rank: #25) vs. ex-Finest (World rank: #75) - 8:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Sprout (-270) | ex-Finest (+195)

Map Handicap: Sprout -1.5 (+110) | ex-Finest +1.5 (-145) 

This is an online best-of-three series for Elisa Invitational Fall 2022 - Swiss Round 4 (Teams with a 2-1 record). Winner advances to the playoffs.

Sprout - Rating at event: Zyphon 1.15 | lauNX 1.13 | slaxz- 1.09 | refrezh 1.00 | Staehr 0.98

Sprout - Rating past three months: lauNX 1.18 | Staehr 1.16 | Zyphon 1.10 | slaxz- 1.07 | refrezh 0.97

ex-Finest - Rating at event: hades 1.18 | twist 1.14 | PlesseN 1.09 | shokz 1.05 | Snax N/A

ex-Finest - Rating past three months: Snax 1.13 | PlesseN 1.09 | twist 1.07 | hades 1.05 | shokz 0.97

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last played in June, but both rosters have since changed.

Prediction: Sprout wins 2-1.

Sprout have been on fire since adding Zyphon & refrezh a couple months back with a 25-15 W/L record across 40 maps played. Last week, they qualified for the upcoming Major with wins against forZe, Spirit, and B8, plus they managed to win in overtime on Nuke against FaZe. Sprout have a solid map pool with a win rate of at least 62.5 % win rate on Vertigo (6-2 W/L), Inferno (5-2 W/L), Mirage, (4-2 W/L), Ancient (2-1 W/L), and Overpass (5-3 W/L). Plus, they just showed their strength on Nuke against FaZe, and their Dust2 has also shown promise with an 80% 5v4 conversion rate. Meanwhile, ex-Finest are now playing with Snax instead of kreaz, which is certainly a roster move I can get behind. Still, their core of hades, twist, PlesseN, and shokz has only managed an 8-10 W/L record across 18 maps played, and we haven’t seen them play with Snax yet. Hades is one of the top talents at this event as demonstrated by his 1.18 Rating, which puts him as the seventh highest-rated player at Elisa Invitational Fall 2022. Thus, ex-Finest have potential with the Polish duo of hades & Snax, but this team still needs to prove it to me first. Sprout have been playing extremely well and they should be the clear favorite against an unproven team, despite the big names in the ex-Finest lineup. Ex-Finest have enough talent to maybe make this a close series, but I expect Sprout to continue their excellent form with a win here, so stacking Sprout is my preference on Draftkings. 

  • slaxz- leads Sprout at this event with 0.13 opening kills per round, while lauNX leads with 22.7% opening duel attempts.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

lauNX ($9,600) | Staehr ($8,800) | slaxz- ($6,800) | Zyphon ($7,600) | hades ($5,200) | refrezh ($5,600) | Snax ($7,200) 

 

**Top Stacks: Sprout, EYEBALLERS

**Favorite Captains: lauNX, Sapec, Staehr, JW

**Favorite Riskier/Value Plays: slaxz-, Zyphon, Svedjehed, hades, Cabbi, refrezh, flusha, kraghen, Snax, SHiNE