CS:GO DFS Playbook September 27: Top DraftKings DFS Picks
The ESL Pro League Season 16 playoffs start on Tuesday! Check out our favorite Counter-Strike: Global Offensive DFS plays for Draftkings with our esports playbook. Keep the CS:GO winning going! Check out our partners over on PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy, Monkey Knife Fight & join our FREE Discord!
Liquid (World rank: #3) vs. Fnatic (World rank: #23) – 9:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Liquid (-165) | Fnatic (+135)
Map Handicap: Liquid -1.5 (+185) | Fnatic -1.5 (-230)
This is a best-of-three on LAN for the first round of the playoffs of ESL Pro League Season 16
Liquid - Rating at event: YEKINDAR 1.26 | NAF 1.12 | EliGE 1.10 | nitr0 0.89 | oSee 0.88
Liquid - Rating past three months: YEKINDAR 1.18 | EliGE 1.17 | NAF 1.11 | oSee 1.04 | nitr0 0.88
Fnatic - Rating at event: roeJ 1.16 | FASHR 1.09 | KRIMZ 1.05 | mezii 1.04 | nicoodoz 1.01
Fnatic - Rating past three months: roeJ 1.14 | mezii 1.12 | FASHR 1.10 | KRIMZ 1.07 | nicoodoz 1.04
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction: Fnatic wins 2-1.
Liquid came into ESL Pro League with a dominant 14-6 W/L record (70% win rate) across 20 maps played, but their results have seemingly come back down to earth with a 7-5 W/L record (58.3% win rate) at this event. Liquid did manage to sweep Cloud9 on Sunday, but they were fighting for a spot in playoffs while C9 had already qualified, which makes the victory a bit less meaningful. Prior to that, Liquid lost to Eternal Fire & FURIA, plus they were the only team to drop a map to Movistar Riders. Liquid have played a lot of close maps and they have managed to win their last four maps that went to overtime, but I fear that they may be due for some regression. Liquid have YEKINDAR taking opening duel attempts in 41.6% of their rounds at this event, which just doesn’t seem sustainable to me. YEKINDAR has been incredible, but if he has one bad day then Liquid’s entire game plan is out the window. OSee has also been mediocre in the past week and he will need to step up, especially against an AWPer as good as nicoodoz.
Fnatic surprised some people at this event with their 8-4 W/L record (66.7% win rate) across 12 maps played, but there is just so much firepower on this roster that anything is possible. At ESL Pro League Season 16, Fnatic swept Spirit, Ninjas in Pyjamas, and Endpoint, plus they managed to steal a map from NAVI & Vitality. Against NiP, Fnatic only lost a total of eight rounds across two maps played. Nicoodoz has had some mixed results at this event, but he has also shown his ceiling like when he had a 2.04 Rating on Ancient against Ninjas in Pyjamas. If Fnatic are going to pull this upset, nicoodoz will need to be sharp.
Liquid should ban Nuke to start, which takes away a strong map from Fnatic (6-1 W/L record on Nuke). However, that would leave Ancient open as an option, where Fnatic have had even more success (7-1 W/L record on Ancient). Liquid have their lowest win rate across all maps in the pool on Ancient, and it is also their least played map with this lineup (tied with Dust2). Liquid would have the luxury of starting CT Ancient which may give them a nice floor for DFS with 15 rounds on the favorable side, but ultimately I think it is a map that Fnatic can steal away. Liquid have a strong map pool of their own; they play a variety of maps and they have a winning record on all of them. Inferno might be a tempting choice for Liquid considering Fnatic haven’t won on that map yet across three tries, though Mirage appears to be another solid option. Still, we saw Liquid lose to Eternal Fire on Inferno and we saw them lose to FURIA on Mirage at this event, so I think there is certainly an opening for Fnatic. This sets up to be a close, back-and-forth series, but I think Fnatic are a capable underdog and I’d prefer to back them at cheaper pricing on Draftkings. Nicoodoz is only $4,800 and I am absolutely willing to roll the dice with him at that price given his floor/ceiling with the AWP. YEKINDAR has the highest ceiling of anyone on the slate based on his extreme aggression, so it is hard to ignore him even if you are stacking Fnatic.
- roeJ leads Fnatic at this event with 0.13 opening kills per round and 28.7% opening duel attempts across 12 maps played.
- On Ancient, FASHR leads Fnatic with a 1.29 Rating and 1.41 K/D ratio across eight maps played.
- On Inferno, KRIMZ leads Fnatic with a 1.14 Rating and 1.10 K/D ratio across three maps played.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
nicoodoz ($4,800) | FASHR ($6,400) | roeJ ($7,800) | YEKINDAR ($9,000) | KRIMZ ($5,400) | NAF ($7,400) | EliGE ($8,000)
FaZe (World rank: #1) vs. Complexity (World rank: #19) – 1:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: FaZe (-755) | Complexity (+515)
Map Handicap: FaZe -1.5 (-185) | Complexity +1.5 (+150)
This is a best-of-three on LAN for the first round of the playoffs of ESL Pro League Season 16
FaZe - Rating at event: rain 1.18 | ropz 1.18 | broky 1.14 | Twistzz 1.06 | karrigan 0.85
FaZe - Rating past three months: broky 1.18 | Twistzz 1.16 | ropz 1.12 | rain 1.09 | karrigan 0.90
Complexity - Rating at event: Grim 1.15 | hallzerk 1.04 | floppy 1.03 | FaNg 1.01 | JT 0.80
Complexity - Rating past three months: Grim 1.16 | hallzerk 1.06 | floppy 1.02 | FaNg 1.02 | JT 0.88
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction: FaZe wins 2-0.
I didn’t expect either of these teams to even be in this spot. FaZe were the favorites to earn a bye to the quarter-finals, but G2 ended up going undefeated to win Group B. FaZe looked bad against G2 with broky and Twistzz combining for 12 kills on Dust2, but I just don’t see that type of poor performance happening very often. FaZe also dropped a map against MIBR and Outsiders, so they haven’t exactly been unstoppable at ESL Pro League Season 16, though they still have a great shot of winning this event in my opinion. Sure, it hasn’t been perfect for FaZe, but I still have them as the best team in the world at the moment, and the oddsmakers give them an implied win probability of 88.3% on Tuesday. FaZe have an 80-41 W/L record (66.1% win rate) across 121 maps played, with a majority of them coming in a LAN environment, so they should be ready to go now that playoffs have begun.
I’m also surprised to see Complexity here, but for different reasons. I felt that Complexity was underrated coming into this event but I still would have picked Astralis, or maybe even ENCE, to earn a playoff spot ahead of them. Complexity have been playing with a newfound level of confidence since adding hallzerk to take over the AWPing duties, and they have managed a 13-9 W/L record (59.1% win rate) across 22 maps played with this lineup. The North Americans had an impressive run to make it to playoffs, but they narrowly avoided getting swept by Astralis, and their only wins came against HEET, who is the lowest-rated team in the group, and ENCE, who is debuting a new roster. Thus, Complexity are a ‘questionable’ playoff team, while FaZe are a favorite to win the trophy.
In 2022, FaZe have a win rate of at least 52.4% on every map in the pool, even including a single win on their permaban, Vertigo. It will be difficult for Complexity to find an opening against FaZe, but Overpass would certainly be a possible option considering it is Complexity’s most played map. Complexity should ban Mirage to start, which leaves open a plethora of strong maps that FaZe can choose from including Nuke (18-2 W/L record), Inferno (18-9 W/L record), and Ancient (8-7 W/L record). I fully expect FaZe to dominate Complexity in this spot and I just don’t see a map that Complexity could reasonably win here. My focus on Draftkings will be to stack FaZe, which is easy to do especially if you take some value from Fnatic in the first match-up. Rain would be my favorite option as he plays aggressive and leads his team in Rating at this event at a salary of only $7,200, but broky, Twistzz, and ropz should all thrive as well, while karrigan is riskier but still a decent play given the spot.
- rain leads FaZe at this event with 0.15 opening kills per round and 29.0% opening duel attempts across 12 maps played.
- On Overpass, broky leads FaZe with a 1.39 Rating and 1.51 K/D ratio across seven maps played in the past three months.
- On Nuke, broky & Twistzz lead FaZe with a 1.17 Rating, while Twistzz leads with a 1.25 K/D ratio across nine maps played in the past three months.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
rain ($7,200) | Twistzz ($9,200) | broky ($9,800) | ropz ($8,400) | karrigan ($6,200) | hallzerk ($5,800)