Rapid Reactions
Considering the nature of the turnaround of this article, much of what I’m saying comes from the same amount of time you have had to watch the games each week. Published on Tuesday, the Running Back Workload is only hours removed from Monday Night Football, and a day removed from Sunday. I’m often analyzing the red zone channel like Sherlock Holmes trying to get an advantage, and while it is helpful, I will also use this section to get my thoughts on the page. Here are my top-five rapid reactions from the Week 1 NFL running back climate…
1) The league as a whole struggled on the ground
Culminating with only two 100-plus yard rushers this past week, it has become clear that offensive line play has taken a step back of sorts over the last few seasons. Likely attributed to the limited practice time that teams now have after the new CBA was signed back in 2011, there appears to be an eroding cohesiveness between offensive lines across the league. Hopefully this is something that sorts it’s self out going forward, as there is certainly not a lack of talent up front throughout the NFL, but rather a lack of communication and subliminal understanding between the hog mollies.
2) Right now, David Johnson is the most dynamic back in the game
My previous statement aside, there are still some players who either are running behind one of the few competent offensive lines, or are just able to persevere through the wash. Right now, David Johnson is an unguardable entity in the passing game and is nearly impossible to take down one on one in the ground game. While he already set the league on fire last season as a rookie, his finesse skillset appears to have taken a step forward this season. In Week 1, his hesitations and stutter steps had more conviction and finished off with more explosiveness than ever, leaving defenders often in the dust, while picking up critical first downs for the Cardinals. As for his power game and never say die attitude, that too was as impressive as ever in Week 1, as he likely had the run of the season so far…
3) C.J. Anderson looks like a different player
Entering last season with incredible fantasy hype, C.J. Anderson really disappointed. Sure he came on down the stretch for the Broncos during their Super Bowl run, but in terms of season long production, he was a considerable disappointment. From his breakout 2014, Anderson entered 2015 looking sluggish and heavier, limiting his ability to break free from defenses. This year in Week 1 – appearing to have shed at least 10 lbs during the offseason – Anderson showcased the best balance and hop cuts of his career. He was a terror for a really good Carolina defense, giving hope to all fantasy owners that he may be able to maintain this type of production across the ensuing 16 weeks of football.
4) DeAngelo Williams is timeless
The league’s oldest back (33) just had the league’s best game on the ground for Week 1 of the 2016 season. This all occurred mind you in a spot start of sorts, as Williams is just a mere backup to Le’Veon Bell, who is serving a three game suspension to kickoff 2016. Despite these circumstances, few were surprised by Williams’ production on Monday night, as this was nothing more than he did in seven starts last season as a 32-year old. My advice: whenever he is in line to get 15 carries or more, Williams is a must start in all fantasy formats.
Side Note: Keep an eye on the play calling in the video below. The Steelers ran their patented “counter-trey” to death with the H-Back/TE kicking out the last man on the line of scrimmage in nearly every big gain that Williams got. It seems so easy to game plan for, but almost no team can stop it.
5) The Chiefs are going to be just fine
As unfortunate as the circumstances are for Jamaal Charles (coming off of second ACL tear in four years), just like last season, the Chiefs are going to be fine without him. Spencer Ware on his own may be enough, but behind him, they also have the more than capable Charcandrick West who can handle the load at the RB position if needed. In Week 1, Ware dominated the fantasy world with 25 standard league points and proved to be even more of a monster in PPR formats with his seven catches for 129 yards. He is obviously the number one waiver target in all leagues this week, while Charles may now be the most likely player to be traded come deadline time this season.
Deep Breaths
As stated in last week’s edition of the RBW, I am all in on Ezekiel Elliott this season. I took him with the fourth overall pick in my fantasy league based off of his elite talent, the Cowboys all-world offensive line, and the team’s absolute desperation for his success – especially now with the injury to Tony Romo. I’ve outlined in length this offseason – even prior to the draft – Zeke’s skillset that features very few holes – and after the draft – how he couldn’t have landed in a better spot than Dallas. Considering all of this, the last thing that I expected to get in his way was play-calling, but that is exactly what happened this past Sunday.
In all, it wasn’t an awful debut considering the Cowboys first and foremost committed to him with 20 carries. He also added his first career touchdown on a nice eight-yard scamper early in the third quarter, but with all of the preseason hype from people like me and even Elliott himself, more was expected from the fourth overall pick than 51 rushing yards and 2.6 yards per carry.
This touchdown above was just about the only highlight for the rookie on Sunday, as his other 19 carries are riddled with two and three yard gains. What is also unique about this carry is that it is one of the few times that the Cowboys faced anything less than eight Giants defenders in the box. Of the 15 or so times that Dallas ran this zone play, it was the only occurrence on record that Elliott was able to successfully cutback, as either New York end seemed to crash the edge violently every other time. My point being is that the Cowboys continued to beat a dead horse. They insisted on disappointing Thomas Edison by trying the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Ultimately the lack of offensive creativity from Dallas’ OC Scott Linehan is what may have led to the struggles of Elliott in his NFL debut.
This offensive scheme featured from Linehan on Fox’s “America’s Game of the Week” reeked of the same passivity from last season in which he “tried not to lose” with the likes of Brandon Weeden, Matt Cassel, and Matt Moore. I am aware that this was quarterback Dak Prescott’s first game, but without a threat of taking a shot deep or a wrinkle of read-option, the Cowboys are unlikely to fool defenses into taking at least one of their oftentimes nine guys out of the box.
As this segment is titled however, everyone should take a deep breath. The Giants caught the Cowboys off-guard with their new look defense, while Dallas’ offensive line struggled to win the battle up front. Like Linehan eventually figured out with Darren McFadden last season, each running back has different strengths and weaknesses. With McFadden, he had to almost abandon the zone scheme that the Cowboys so love to run, while he instead relied upon pitch sweeps and inside trap plays to get him over 1,000 yards. Now while I find very few weaknesses in Zeke, maybe it will be best for Linehan and the Cowboys line to put him in situations where the play develops quicker. This is not because of his lack of patience, but rather because his rookie eagerness showed a bit on Sunday.
Ultimately what will help Elliott the most this season is getting a player or two out of the box on each play. Make people respect the threat to pass. As Prescott develops confidence so too will the rest of this offense. He should end up being fine, while Elliott’s talent alone is too great not to succeed in this league. I still have faith that he will finish this season as the league’s top running back.
Inhale… Exhale… Repeat…
Nostra-Dom-Us
After a largely prediction-less offseason aside from my mock drafts, Nostra-Dom-Us made his long-awaited return last week with the running back awards forecast. In this edition, I will get back to business as usual from last season when I would give you my pick(s) of the week based off of matchups and fantasy projection. So without further ado…
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Ezekiel Elliott vs. WAS Defense
Believe it or not, you may be able to get Elliott on a discount this week based off of his aforementioned struggles in his season debut, but make no mistake; he is getting a favorable matchup in Week 2.
As I stated before, the Steelers tore through the Redskins defense on Monday night, and while Pittsburgh called excellent plays and really stuck it to Washington, the Redskins porous rush defense played a major role in DeAngelo Williams’ success as well. In 2015 the Skins finished 31st in the league against the run and showed no improvements in Week 1 of 2016. Headed into Week 2, expect Dallas and the best line in football to bounce back in this mismatch, meaning that Elliott should serve as an excellent fantasy play.
DeMarco Murray vs. DET Defense
While the Titans didn’t debut their rushing attack as well as I had expected, keep in mind that they were taking on a very stout Vikings defense in Week 1. The good news for fantasy owners is that it became very clear early on that DeMarco Murray is the unquestioned lead back in Tennessee, as he more than doubled the amount of snaps that the rookie Derrick Henry saw. Murray – while he struggled to get things going on the ground, did some damage through the air, hauling in five catches for 35 yards and two touchdowns.
In this Week 2 matchup, I’m basically doubling down on the Titans rushing attack, banking on the idea that they will be able to control the pace of the game against a team that just won an emotional shootout in Week 1. Detroit – while they were middle of the road against the run in 2015 – doesn’t boast a defense that should strike fear into an opponent looking to establish a ground game culture. I expect big things from Murray and Tennessee on Sunday.
C.J. Anderson vs. IND Defense
Last season the Colts finished in the bottom-10 of the league against the run and as I mentioned above, Anderson looks to be twice the back that he was last season. The Broncos will be pleased to welcome this emotionally scarred Indy defense to Denver, as they will look to gouge them on the ground for the majority of the matchup. The Colts aerial attack will keep them in this, but expect the Broncos to look to control the clock with the ground game as their winning strategy going forward.