2021 NFL Draft Guide Player Profiles: Russell Wilson

It was a great year for Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. It was also a bad year for Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. Ultimately, he finished the year as the QB6 and the 2020 season saw Wilson put forth the most fantasy points in a season for his entire career. He has plenty of weapons around him, and he’s proven to be incredibly durable. Has the status quo of Wilson being a solid fantasy option losing its lust? Are we not high enough on Wilson? Let’s discuss.

In 2020, he posted a career-high 68.8 percent completion rate, threw for over 4,200 yards and broke the 40 passing touchdown threshold for the first time in his career. He also threw 13 interceptions, which for most quarterbacks isn’t too shabby, but for Wilson, that was also a career high. His 2.3 percent interception rate was Wilson’s highest mark since his rookie year. The 2020 season featured two versions of Wilson: The one that warranted the #LetRussCook movement and the other that was far less desirable.

Courtesy of Pro Football Reference

Those numbers put it into simpler terms. However, let’s take a look from a slightly more fantasy-centric viewpoint, starting with this: Through the first eight games (nine weeks) of the season, Wilson had zero games with less than 24.5 fantasy points. Over the final eight games, he had zero games with more than 24.5 fantasy points. Furthermore...

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus (PFF)

All nine of his QB1 performances last year came in the first nine weeks of the season, and he topped 250 passing yards just once in the second half of the season. Yikes. Given everything above, there’s two ways you can look at it, and it’s the two camps that people primarily fall into regarding Wilson:

1. That’s a concerning drop off, oh no! If the second-half struggles carry over, he’s not going to justify his draft price.
2. Even as bad as he was down the stretch, he was still a QB1 in his worst stretch of the season.

The emergence of D.K. Metcalf has done wonders for the Seattle offense. In the two years prior to Metcalf, Wilson averaged about 22.87 fantasy points per game, per RotoViz. However, in the past two seasons with Metcalf, Wilson is averaging nearly 24.5 fantasy points per game. Tyler Lockett is an excellent receiver and while he showed that he could carry the load, another legitimate threat was imperative for Wilson and Co. Metcalf is that legitimate threat, and then some.

There’s two other things to be encouraged about for Wilson in 2021. First, the Seattle offensive line should be better in 2021, which should be welcomed by Wilson. He’s never had a sack rate lower than 7.2 percent in his entire career, and he’s been sacked 47 or more times in each of the past three seasons. The team traded for Gabe Jackson, which should help from Day 1, and traded up late in the draft to get Stone Forsythe who is a mammoth of a human. Sure, the latter doesn’t help today, but Jackson certainly does.

Secondly, the new Offensive Coordinator in town is Shane Waldron, who has spent the last three years in Los Angeles with Sean McVay as the team’s passing game coordinator. It’s Waldron’s first stint as an OC in the National Football League, but you have to like the offensive mind that he’s been under the past couple of seasons. On top of Metcalf and Lockett, the team also brought in Gerald Everett at tight end and drafted D'Wayne Eskridge in the second round. There are plenty of weapons here for Wilson and Waldron.

One of my favorite things about Wilson, and why I love him for fantasy year in and year out is because his eyes are locked on the end zone. No quarterback throws the ball into the end zone more often than Wilson. He’s led all quarterbacks in end zone target percentage in each of the last three years, and has ranked in the top four in each of the past four seasons.

Courtesy of PFF

If you want touchdowns, look to Wilson, because that’s where he’s looking. Peppering the end zone with targets helps maintain a solid floor in terms of touchdown passes, and despite quarterbacking a team that wants to run the football, it’s a big reason why he’s thrown for 30 or more touchdowns in four straight seasons.

Speaking of floors, offers one of the better rushing floors, as he has at least 400 rushing yards in three of the past four seasons and in seven of nine for his entire career. He doesn’t have the elite rushing numbers like Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray, but Wilson holds his own here, and does just enough to be on the fringe of the “elite” echelon.

Wilson has been so good for fantasy for so long and it seems like he never quite gets enough respect. Yes, Seattle wants to run the football and will do it a lot, and sometimes too much, but by season’s end, Wilson is always firmly entrenched in QB1 territory. Consider these three factoids:

1. Over the last three years, only Patrick Mahomes has more touchdown passes than Wilson.
2. Only Mahomes and Deshaun Watson have more total fantasy points than Wilson during that time.
3. Wilson has finished as a QB1 (top 12) in every season of his nine year career.
4. Wilson has finished within the top quarterbacks in all but one season (rookie year)

At time of writing, Wilson is the QB7, per NFFC, data and I think he’s priced just right. Given some other flashier names and picks, he could slip in your draft. If that’s the case, pounce on Russell Wilson and do not think twice. Yes, his Mr. Unlimited was one of the most cringeworthy things I’ve ever seen, but try not to think about that during your fantasy drafts. He’s a tried-and-true QB1 for fantasy with a slew of weapons at his disposal.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football