NCAAF DFS Playbook & Core Plays: Week 9 (Thursday Slate)

Published: Oct 28, 2021

Welcome back college football fans! We’ve got a small but fun slate of games this Thursday night & it’s time to build some winning lineups! This playbook will only focus on the DraftKings slate in terms of pricing, but feel free to play on FanDuel with the same players as well.

If you have any questions on specific players or lineup builds, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @dan_servodidio or on the Discord and I’ll try to help out! Without further ado, let’s dive into the Thursday night DFS CFB slate for October 28th!

THE SLATE (Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook):

7:30 pm ET -- Troy at Coastal Carolina (-17.5) -- 51.5 O/U

7:30 pm ET -- South Florida at East Carolina (-10) -- 56 O/U

Implied Team Totals (per DK Sportsbook Odds)

Coastal Carolina -- 34.5 points vs. Troy
East Carolina -- 33 points vs. USF
South Florida -- 23 points vs. ECU
Troy -- 17 points vs. Coastal Carolina

QUARTERBACKS

Quarterbacks
Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Grayson McCall	C-C	TROY	9000	21.48
Even though Coastal is the biggest favorite on this two-game slate, it’s hard to trust McCall in a tough matchup on paper. Troy’s defense is only surrendering 191.4 passing yards per game (24th in FBS) and have more interceptions (12) than passing TDs allowed (7) this season. Granted the D hasn’t faced a high-powered offense like Coastal yet, but don’t be surprised if McCall doesn’t throw for 300+ yards and multiple TDs like he’s always capable of doing. On this short slate, he’s a GPP option with Holton Ahlers likely being more popular in cash.
Holton Ahlers	ECU	USF	8700	20.47
Since there are literally only four starting QBs to choose from on this slate, expect Ahlers to be popular in all formats. First, he’s facing a soft USF defense that’s allowing 32.3 PPG and 262.6 passing yards per game (both 108th in FBS). Second, he’s quarterbacking one of two good offenses on this slate and is playing in the higher total game overall than the other. Third, ECU isn’t as big of favorites as Coastal - which should help the offense and passing game to continue producing deeper into the fourth quarter. Altogether, Ahlers should be rostered before McCall in cash and is the top QB to lock in among these four teams.
Timmy McClain	USF	ECU	5700	10.1
First off, this is definitely a slate where you can ignore finding a second QB to put in the Super-Flex and rather use that roster spot for another position. If you want a cheaper QB, though, going to USF’s McClain is a better move than Troy’s Gunnar Watson. For starters, McClain will be in a much-easier matchup vs. ECU’s defense compared to Watson vs. Coastal. Then there’s the fact that McClain offers some dual-threat upside with his 217 rushing yards through seven games. He’s reportedly dealing with an ankle injury and is questionable to play this week, so pay attention to warmup news if he’s out there.

Also Consider:

Gunnar Watson -- Troy ($5,200) -- GPP

RUNNING BACKS

Running Backs
Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Shermari Jones	C-C	TROY	7000	17.92
Since returning from injury, Jones has been a TD machine with three scores over the past two games and a 100-yard rushing performance in one of those. He’s now notched 100+ rush yards in three of five games this season - even while splitting carries with Reese White. The fact that Jones and White split the work in this backfield makes it tough to pay 7k. Though he could find the end zone twice again, rostering White is a better move in cash than Jones - though the latter is always in play for GPP’s.
Jaren Mangham	USF	ECU	6300	17.16
On a slate with tons of committee backfields, Mangham is the only clear lead back among the four teams in action. Though other USF backs get carries, Mangham is the guy and he’s coming off a monster performance vs. Temple last week when he ran for 152 yards and two TD on 26 carries. The former Colorado transfer has now scored 12 times over the past six games and that TD production gives him a higher floor than most RBs on this slate. USF could keep this game vs. ECU close enough for Mangham to see just enough carries to return plenty of value - especially if QB McClain is limited.
Keaton Mitchell	ECU	USF	6100	19.49
On this small slate, Mitchell has by far the best matchup on the ground and it could make him popular in cash. USF’s defense is giving up 201 rushing yards per game (115th in FBS) and 5.85 yards per carry (126th) with 14 rush TDs allowed over seven games. Plus, Mitchell plays for a two-score favorite in the highest total of the slate. The only problem is he splits work with Rahjai Harris in this ECU backfield - so the volume or production isn’t as guaranteed as we’d like from a lead back. Still, it wasn’t too long ago when Mitchell showed his ceiling with 37 DFS points, 222 rush yds and 2 TD back in Week 5. It might be smart to just stack both Mitchell and Harris in the same lineup to lock up all the production from this backfield in a favorable matchup.
Reese White	C-C	TROY	5000	15.03
Though he splits work with Shermari Jones in the Coastal backfield, White is still a solid play because he’s the more explosive back and can still rack up yardage on fewer touches than Jones. He’s averaging 7.2 ypc and that usually allows him to have 60-90 rushing yards despite seeing less than 10 carries nearly every week. Plus, White is involved more as a pass-catcher than Jones in this offense. The matchup vs. Troy is actually tough on paper, but White could see enough touches to return value because of the high probability that Coastal wins in blowout fashion.
Rahjai Harris	ECU	USF	4200	11.6
As mentioned above with Keaton Mitchell, the ECU backfield has a very favorable matchup vs. USF’s weak defense. Though Mitchell is priced higher, Harris has been splitting carries all year and their production is pretty similar over the past two weeks. In GPP’s, Harris is an interesting pivot away from Mitchell (if you’re fading him). In cash, you can roster Harris on his own or pair up with Mitchell in the same lineup.

Also Consider:

Kimani Vidal -- Troy ($6,500) -- GPP

B.J. Smith -- Troy ($3,500) -- GPP

Darrian Felix -- South Florida ($3,000) -- GPP

WIDE RECEIVERS

Wide Receivers
Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Isaiah Likely	C-C	TROY	7700	19.21
It’s wild to see a tight end be the highest-priced pass-catcher on a DFS CFB slate - but that’s just a product of how good Likely is and the lack of top options in action tonight. Though he only had two catches last week, we already know Likely’s massive ceiling from two games ago when he broke the slate with 58 DFS points on 232 yards and four TDs. He can look unrecoverable at times and could easily score multiple times if McCall is looking his way in the red zone - which is more often than not. The price tag puts him more in GPP territory, but don’t blame you in cash on this short slate.
Jaivon Heiligh	C-C	TROY	7300	19.8
Usually we see Heiligh priced above Likely in DFS, so it makes the former the better cash play because of the slight savings. Heiligh might not have the slate-breaking ceiling that Likely has shown, but his floor of receptions and targets is more consistent game-to-game. With defenses keying more on Likely because of his talent from the tight end position, there could be more room for production for Heiligh as a receiver.
Tyler Snead	ECU	USF	5900	15.54
It’s a good idea to get multiple pieces of the ECU offense in your cash lineups and Snead is the top wideout. Though he doesn’t score as many TDs as you’d like, Snead is a PPR machine with at least four catches in every game and enough yardage to provide a double-digit DFS floor. Since he’s significantly cheaper than the Coastal guys, expect Snead to be popular in cash because of his proven floor and potential to score in a high total matchup - especially against a weak USF defense.
Xavier Weaver	USF	ECU	4800	11.88
There isn’t a ton to like from the USF offense, but Weaver is the top wideout this season and he’ll provide just enough to be a solid value at sub 5k. He has at least four catches and 50 yards in three of the last four games - good for 9+ floor points in those weeks - and has two TDs over that span too. No other USF pass-catcher is as consistent as Weaver and it makes him a great cash play on this slate to get more exposure to the highest total. Keep an eye out for Weaver's status as he's a game-time decision.
Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Kameron Brown	C-C	TROY	4600	10.77
While Likely and Heiligh are the headliners in the Coastal receiving corps, Brown is a solid value here and shouldn't be overlooked as the offense’s third-best pass-catcher. He has at least three catches in five straight games played and had 98 yards and TD last week. His cash floor is actually higher than you’d think and could easily return value at sub 5k.
Audie Omotosho	ECU	USF	4300	9.8
How about another piece of the ECU offense? This one is a value and could make for a great salary-saver on a slate without many low-priced options you can trust. Omotosho has at least four catches in three straight and in four of the last five games with 11+ DFS points in those. Though two of the games featured a TD, the double-digit DFS points is hard to ignore for a guy that’s low in the 4k range. C.J. Johnson ($4500) is another cheap ECU receiver to look at, but Omotosho has been just a bit more involved reception-wise.
Jabre Barber	TROY	C-C	3700	8.18
Troy is now without one of its top receivers with Reggie Todd suspended. That opens up some value in this WR corps and we know the offense will need to throw in a likely big deficit to Coastal tonight. Barber should be one of those Troy pass-catchers who sees more targets in Todd’s absence. The true freshman is only a few weeks removed from a nine-catch performance and has 10+ DFS points in three of the last five games. He only needs 3-4 catches to return value at this price tag.

Also Consider:

Tez Johnson -- Troy ($5,500) -- GPP

C.J. Johnson -- East Carolina ($4,500) -- Cash/GPP

Ryan Jones -- East Carolina ($4,000) -- GPP

Jimmy Horn -- USF ($3,900) -- GPP

Demarcus Gregory -- USF ($3,600) -- GPP

Luke Whittemore -- Troy ($3,400) -- GPP

EXAMPLE LINEUPS

DK Cash
Pos.	Player	Team	Opp	FPPG	Salary
QB	Holton Ahlers	ECU	USF	20.5	$8,700
Pivot
RB	Jaren Mangham	USF	ECU	17.2	$6,300
Pivot
RB	Keaton Mitchell	ECU	USF	19.5	$6,100
Pivot
WR	Tyler Snead	ECU	USF	15.5	$5,900
Pivot
WR	Jaivon Heiligh	C-C	TROY	19.8	$7,300
Pivot
WR	Xavier Weaver	USF	ECU	11.9	$4,800
Pivot	Jabre Barber	TROY	C-C	8.2	$3,700
FLEX	Reese White	C-C	TROY	15	$5,000
Pivot	Rahjai Harris	ECU	USF	11.6	$4,200
S-FLEX	Timmy McClain	USF	ECU	10.1	$5,700
Pivot	Isaiah Likely	C-C	TROY	19.2	$7,700

DK GPP
Pos.	Player	Team	Opp	FPPG	Salary
QB	Grayson McCall	C-C	TROY	21.5	$9,000
Pivot
RB	Shermari Jones	C-C	TROY	17.9	$7,000
Pivot
RB	Rahjai Harris	ECU	USF	11.6	$4,200
Pivot
WR	Isaiah Likely	C-C	TROY	19.2	$7,700
Pivot
WR	Tez Johnson	TROY	C-C	14.4	$5,500
Pivot	Kameron Brown	C-C	TROY	10.8	$4,600
WR	Luke Whittemore	TROY	C-C	7.2	$3,400
Pivot
FLEX	Audie Omotosho	ECU	USF	9.8	$4,300
Pivot	Xavier Weaver	USF	ECU	11.9	$4,800
S-FLEX	Holton Ahlers	ECU	USF	20.5	$8,700
Pivot

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