NCAA Tournament CBB DFS Playbook & Core Plays: March 24 Sweet 16
Published: Mar 24, 2022
Welcome to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament! On Thursday night, we have the first four matchups on the CBB DFS slate before Friday concludes the round.
Keep in mind that some of the game times on DraftKings or FanDuel are earlier than the game itself may start in this tournament setup. So pay attention to when those games lock if making late lineup changes or pivots. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
THE SLATE (Odds via DK Sportsbook)
- 7:09 pm ET – Arkansas vs. Gonzaga (-9.5) – 155 O/U
- 7:29 pm ET – Michigan vs. Villanova (-5) – 136.5 O/U
- 9:24 pm ET – Texas Tech (-1) vs. Duke – 137 O/U
- 9:44 pm ET – Houston vs. Arizona (-1.5) – 145.5 O/U
KenPom Projected Team Totals
- Gonzaga – 82
- Houston – 74
- Arizona – 73
- Arkansas – 72
- Villanova – 71
- Texas Tech – 69
- Duke – 68
- Michigan – 66
Notable Injuries:
- AJ Griffin, Duke – QUESTIONABLE (ankle) – Griffin will reportedly be available to play after suffering an ankle injury last game, but he may be limited minutes-wise
- Devante' Jones, Michigan – PROBABLE (concussion) – Jones practiced this week but may not see his normal starter workload while still dealing with a concussion and leaving the last game early.
Top Guards
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| JD Notae | ARK | GONZ | 7800 | 34.93 | 7300 | 32.20 |
| If Arkansas wants to pull off the upset, Notae will need to anchor the offensive attack to keep pace with Gonzaga. He should be able to rack up plenty of points scored and DFS production in this higher-scoring matchup against the Zags’ below-average perimeter defense. He had 18 points and 41 DK last game in a low-scoring affair with New Mexico St. Expecting 40+ DFS points isn’t unreasonable for cash or GPP. | ||||||
| Andrew Nembhard | GONZ | ARK | 7600 | 28.12 | 7200 | 26.18 |
| Outside of one subpar effort vs. Saint Mary’s and a couple of others in blowout wins, Nembhard has been basically locked into 30-35 DFS points as a floor every time out. He’s about as trustworthy as it gets for cash while running the point for Gonzaga’s high-powered offense. He had 23 points and 32 DK vs. Memphis but also had 35 DK with only nine points (and plenty of ancillary stats) in the first-round win. He’ll get it done one way or another and should be popular in cash at affordable price points. | ||||||
| Kyler Edwards | UH | ARIZ | 7400 | 29.76 | 7500 | 27.26 |
| Edwards is playing at an elite level right now and he’ll have to keep it going if Houston wants to pull off the win over Arizona. He had 25 points and 44 DK vs. UAB in the first round and then 15 points and 34 DK vs. Illinois last game. Edwards has now put up at least 34 DK in six of the last seven games and now gets a pace-boost matchup for the Sweet 16. Strongly consider for cash or GPP. | ||||||
| Collin Gillespie | VU | MICH | 6900 | 28.53 | 6400 | 25.93 |
| It’s no secret that Villanova lives and dies by the production of Gillespie and Justin Moore, both of whom are firmly in play on this slate. Gillespie gets the slight nod as he’s been more productive during the NCAA Tournament with 26 and 29 DK the last two games and 14 and 20 points scored, respectively. Moore had 35 DK and 21 points in the first round but struggled last game with just 12 DK and eight points. He could bounce back, but Gillespie is more trustworthy right now – though Moore is a nice bargain. | ||||||
| Jamal Shead | UH | ARIZ | 6500 | 25.92 | 6100 | 24.11 |
| Houston’s trio of top guards are all in play on this slate in a pace-boost matchup. We mentioned Kyler Edwards already, but Jamal Shead might be a better option than Taze Moore with the slight discount on both sites. Shead has 27 DK or more in three straight and four of the last five games. He’ll be needed more offensively in this matchup vs. Arizona if Edwards/Moore struggle to score consistently. It's actually a bargain in the 6k price tier. | ||||||
Other Top Guards:
- Bennedict Mathurin – Arizona ($7,500 DK / $7,800 FD)
- Eli Brooks – Michigan ($6,400 DK / $6,800 FD)
- Justin Moore – Villanova ($6,300 DK / $5,800 FD)
- Dalen Terry – Arizona ($5,800 DK / $6,700 FD)
Value Guards
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Kevin McCullar | TTU | DUKE | 5400 | 23.32 | 4800 | 21.57 |
| McCullar is pretty affordable for a guy who’s put up 20+ DK in three straight games and four of the last five while being one of Texas Tech’s main offensive threats. He’s been back in the starting lineup for the NCAA Tournament after coming off the bench and battling an injury earlier in March. In a pace-boost vs. Duke, expect McCullar to be a popular cash salary-saver. | ||||||
| Rasir Bolton | GONZ | ARK | 5200 | 19.45 | 5200 | 17.68 |
| Though he’s usually not the first, second or third option on Gonzaga’s offense, Bolton can still be a decent value with just enough scoring role and ancillary stats in a high-powered attack. He just put up 17 points and 24 DK vs. Memphis last game, has 20+ DK in five of the last eight games, and is averaging 20 DK over the past ten. Getting a cheap piece of the slate’s highest total is never a bad idea either. | ||||||
| Jeremy Roach | DUKE | TTU | 5000 | 17.55 | 4800 | 16.17 |
| A matchup vs. Texas Tech’s elite defense isn’t ideal, but Roach is a solid value with a newfound role. He’s moved into the starting lineup since the NCAA Tournament began and put up 24 and 23 DK in the first two rounds with double-digit points scored in both. The new starting role has moved Trevor Keels to the bench, and Roach may be locked into even more usage and playing time if AJ Griffin is out or limited after suffering an ankle injury last game. | ||||||
| Davonte Davis | ARK | GONZ | 4300 | 18.21 | 4700 | 17.20 |
| Arkansas will need its role players outside of Notae and Williams to step up in order to pull off the upset of Gonzaga. Davis is one of those as the Razorbacks’ main reserve man who plays starter-level minutes despite coming off the bench. He’s logged 36 and 35 minutes in the first two games of the NCAA Tournament and had 26 DK and 14 points vs. Vermont. Getting 20 DFS points or more would make him a nice value on both sites under 5k, and the pace-boost makes it certainly possible. | ||||||
Other Value Guards:
- Trevor Keels – Duke ($5,300 DK / $4,600 FD)
- Pelle Larsson – Arizona ($5,100 DK / $4,800 FD)
- Au'Diese Toney – Arkansas ($4,400 DK / $4,900 FD)
- Frankie Collins – Michigan ($4,000 DK / $4,400 FD)
Top Forwards
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Paolo Banchero | DUKE | TTU | 8300 | 35.28 | 8300 | 32.67 |
| Banchero has been a top DFS CBB play all season and it’ll continue as long as Duke is alive in the tournament. The future NBA lottery pick had 43 and 34 DK in the first two rounds and will provide a safe cash floor with his heavy usage/shot volume on offense and overall rebounding ability. The matchup vs. Texas Tech isn’t ideal, but we can bank on Banchero being plenty involved in all areas for Duke. He's a better FD play on this slate with the price differential compared to other top forwards, but he's also guard-eligible on DK if you want to go that route. | ||||||
| Hunter Dickinson | MICH | VU | 8100 | 36.28 | 8600 | 33.99 |
| Dickinson’s play is the main reason why Michigan is still going, and now he gets a favorable matchup. Villanova lacks the frontcourt size and defense to slow down opposing bigs, so bank on Dickinson continuing his DFS stud production. The Wolverines’ center has scored 20+ real points in both games to start the NCAA Tournament and he just had 27 points, 11 rebounds and 52 DK vs. Tennessee last game. Getting 40-50 DFS points isn't out of the question here. | ||||||
| Drew Timme | GONZ | ARK | 8000 | 32.07 | 9000 | 30.17 |
| In the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, Timme has looked every bit of the preseason National POY candidate that he was. He has at least 25 points, 13 rebounds and 50 DK in both games so far and seems very motivated to lead Gonzaga to its first ever title. You can go with Timme or Holmgren any time the Zags are in action, but Timme is the way to go until he cools off – which likely won’t happen until his team loses. The cheaper DK price tag is very attractive. | ||||||
| Jermaine Samuels | VU | MICH | 6000 | 23.68 | 6500 | 22.12 |
| There are a few cheaper guys in the forward pool, just below the top-tier studs, who make for interesting GPP plays. Fabian White is one and Jaylin Williams is another, but Samuels is more affordable than both for similar or better DFS production. The Nova senior has turned it on in the postseason with 34 and 30 DK in the first two rounds of the Tournament and 44 DK vs. UConn in the Big East semis. He could easily give you 30-40 DFS points going against Michigan’s inconsistent defense. | ||||||
Other Top Forwards:
- Chet Holmgren – Gonzaga ($8,700 DK / $8,900 FD)
- Christian Koloko – Arizona ($7,700 DK / $8,100 FD)
- Jaylin Williams – Arkansas ($7,000 DK / $7,100 FD)
- Fabian White Jr. – Houston ($6,200 DK / $5,900 FD)
Value Forwards
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Kevin Obanor | TTU | DUKE | 5600 | 19.09 | 6000 | 17.46 |
| Obanor is right on the fringe of being a value, but he’s too cheap for how good he’s been lately. The Oral Roberts transfer isn’t shying away from the bigger stage at the NCAA Tournament for a second straight season. He’s put up 26 and 38 DK in the first two rounds and posted a double-double in both outings with an uptick in minutes. Obanor’s versatile size, rebounding and defense should lock him into plenty of playing time vs. Duke. | ||||||
| Eric Dixon | VU | MICH | 5300 | 20.92 | 5000 | 19.90 |
| Dixon has been inconsistent from a DFS and real-life perspective all season, but he’s at another level in the Tournament. The Nova center has double-digit points in both rounds thus far and had 22 and 28 DK in those outings. He played a key role vs. Ohio State and will need to step up again to match up with Hunter Dickinson in this Sweet 16 tilt. Though he’s put up numbers, Dixon remains very affordable for the potential at 4x or 5x value. | ||||||
| Josh Carlton | UH | ARIZ | 5200 | 23.6 | 4700 | 22.32 |
| Since his DFS production has been at a lower level lately, Carlton’s price tag (especially on DK) has decreased to a value point. This is still a guy who can go for 25-30 DFS points at his best when he’s taking over the paint. Houston will need Carlton’s size on both ends to combat Arizona’s talented frontcourt, so expect an uptick in playing time than normal. Limit exposure to GPPs though. | ||||||
Other Value Forwards:
- Bryson Williams – Texas Tech ($5,500 DK / $5,000 FD)
- Anton Watson – Gonzaga ($4,700 DK / $4,800 FD)
- Marcus Santos-Silva – Texas Tech ($4,500 DK / $4,500 FD)
- Oumar Ballo – Arizona ($4,200 DK / $4,000 FD)
DraftKings Core Plays
- Drew Timme – Gonzaga ($8,000)
- Kyler Edwards – Houston ($7,400)
- Kevin Obanor – Texas Tech ($5,600)
FanDuel Core Plays
- Paolo Banchero – Duke ($8,300)
- Andrew Nembhard – Gonzaga ($7,200)
- Kevin McCullar – Texas Tech ($4,800into)
Looking for more college basketball content? Check out today's PrizePicks CBB top plays! Plus, check out all of Dan Servodidio's March Madness team breakdowns & Sweet 16 betting picks from Pickswise!