While the 2022 MLB season is still dealing with the current lockout there is still plenty to examine when it comes to preparing for your fantasy baseball drafts. In this upcoming series, I am going to be breaking down the first base position with overviews, specific players to target, and more! Let's jump in and examine the first base landscape for the 2022 season!
 

The Landscape

 


Vladimir Guerrero, Jr won fantasy leagues for a lot of managers last season. This season, he might be the reason why fantasy managers lose their league. 

I was one of those managers last season and while I am grateful, Guerrero likely won’t be on any of my teams in 2022. It’s nothing against Guerrero as a player. The skillset is legitimate and the likelihood that he leads all first baseman in home runs this season while flirting with 50 is very real. The run production will also be there and the strikeouts are reasonable too. We are looking at a true four-category option as there is also no reason not to expect Guerrero to be a .300 hitter once again in 2022. 

However, it’s that fifth category that is the problem. And, for me, that is what influences my thought process in drafting first baseman. 

As the number of stolen bases continues to plummet league-wide, it doesn’t count any less as a category in the standings despite becoming increasingly scarce. The bigger problem is how quickly the player pool of viable stolen base options dries up in the early rounds of drafts. And with Guerrero and his other cohorts at the top of the rankings lacking in that area, you are left at a substantial disadvantage and then forced to chase stolen bases for the remainder of the draft. 
 

 



If there was a clear path to hitting stolen base targets in the middle and later rounds in the drafts, then I would fully support drafting Guerrero, Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman, and Pete Alonso at their current ADP, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. That is highlighted even more so by the need to secure starting pitchers and the ever-rising cost of saves. 

With that said, every league and format are different (head-to-head, points, auction, keepers) so it’s possible that you can simply ignore everything I said and take Guerrero or another elite first baseman early in drafts as the above logic applies more specifically to re-draft formats. 

To help organize our thoughts, positional tiers and groupings prove to be quite helpful. There doesn’t appear to be any debate that Guerrero is in a class of his own, and he is the only first baseman that will come off the board in the first round. 
 

Elite Options

There are a lot of talk and rumors about a new destination for Matt Olson before the season starts, and, if anything, it excites me as it will put him in a more favorable situation than his current one in Oakland. Olson’s power is real and cannot be disputed, but the bigger takeaway last season was the drop in his strikeout rate to 16.8% and seeing his contact jump up to 80%. 

 


Freddie Freeman is as consistent as they come, and the fact that he is currently a free agent doesn’t concern me in the least. While he doesn’t have the same power upside as Guerrero, Olson, or Pete Alonso, Freeman will still flirt with a 30/100/100 season while finishing with one of the best batting averages at the position. 

We can’t talk about power upside without mentioning Alonso who should be in line for an improvement in 2022. He brought his strikeout rate down to 20% last season while also improving his contact rate and experiencing a power boost in the second half of the season as he seemingly moved past a hand injury. 

I debated whether or not to include Paul Goldschmidt in this tier, but after posting a career-high 13.6%-barrel rate last season, the case was made for me. While he is another year older, Goldschmidt didn’t show it in 2021 and there is nothing to suggest that a repeat isn’t on deck this season. 
 

Solid, Aging Veterans

While the numbers dictate ranking José Abreu here, and he’s still likely to come very close to a 30/100 season with a batting average that won’t hurt you, I’m not sure he will end up on any of my teams this season. Abreu’s skills do appear to be flat, and there’s nothing especially wrong with that, but it is slightly concerning to see his barrel rate drop to 10.2%. The problem here is that at Abreu’s price (end of the fifth round, beginning of the sixth in 15-team leagues), there isn’t any upside; just downside. 
 

 


There is a similar concern when it comes to D.J. LeMahieu two or three rounds later, but in most cases, you aren’t going to draft him with the intention of playing him at first base as he is also eligible at second and third. LeMahieu dealt with a hernia last season and took a large step back, and the thought process is that with improved health, he will turn back the clock. Just don’t expect it to come all the way back. 

Once we get out of the top-100 or so, the lines begin the blur, and while being aware of ADP is still vitally important, you also need to make sure you get your guy and don’t end up reaching or leaving the draft with a gaping hole. 
 

Emerging Options, With Questions

 


Ryan Mountcastle took advantage of his opportunity with regular and consistent playing time last season, and you can’t argue with 33 home runs and 89 RBI. He’s not going anywhere from the middle of Baltimore’s lineup, but we do have to question the impact of the fence being moved back in Camden Yards for the upcoming season. Mountcastle’s 27.5% strikeout rate, while normal these days, does give me a little pause as there is some concern surrounding his struggles to make contact. It might be an overreaction to a degree, but I don’t want to pay full price for what could have been a career year. 
 

 


While he’s still a solid option, Jared Walsh’s struggles against left-handed pitching and contact woes do raise at least warning flares for next season. Last season, Walsh emerged on the scene with 29 home runs and 98 RBI, but there is also some concern in the gap between his actual and expected power. Perhaps most concerning is Walsh’s 7.8-degree launch angle last season and the likelihood of a true repeat performance. 

As far as draft capital, you can wait for a few more rounds on Alex Kirlioff, but my thought process is that he will be this season’s version of Mountcastle and Walsh. The biggest unknown here is that we have yet to see Kiriloff play a full season as he got in just 59 games last season with the Twins as he was dealing with a wrist injury. In that limited sample size, Kiriloff hit eight home runs while driving in 34 and it’s all too easy to do the math if we get 140 to 150 games out of him. The seven-degree launch angle we saw last season is a little concerning, but the 12.8%-barrel rate does say otherwise. 

We are now coming up to the point in the draft where I begin to target my first baseman if it previously didn’t make sense from a roster build perspective. While we have already gone through the elite and flashy options along with some younger players who emerged on the scene in 2021, for the most part, the expected production (especially considering the price) isn’t much different. 
 

 


 

Just What We Need

 


The big thing for Rhys Hoskins this season is that we need him to stay healthy. I am willing to bank on that taking place, especially when the replacement value at first base is higher than most other positions after Hoskins hit .311 in 20 games in the second half of the season with seven home runs and 16 RBI. Hoskins's power is real, and per Baseball HQ, he should have hit 36 home runs last season and not the 27 that he actually hit. The batting average might be a little hairy, although not a true liability, but if everything breaks right, Hoskins could go for 40 home runs. 
 

 


Josh Bell is also going to leave us wanting more. At this point, we have to just agree to disagree with his 55% ground ball rate as he still managed 27 home runs last season while getting his ISO back to .215. Bell is a unicorn in the sense that he only struck out 17.8% of the time last season but a 4.9-degree launch angle will also hang over his head and limit the true potential of his 51.5% hard-hit rate. Either way, at this point, we are getting what we are paying for and there is nothing wrong with that. 

While CJ Cron is no longer a bargain, he is still reasonably priced for the stable skill set and performance we get out of the Colorado first baseman. Coors Field certainly agrees with Cron and he should break the 25-home run mark for the fourth straight season in 2022 while driving in 85 to 90 runs. 

It is possible that Ty France is likely going to be drafted as more of a second base option, but the eligibility at first base doesn’t hurt. France did a good job boosting his contact rate to 81% last season although he did trade a fair amount of line drives for ground balls which could be concerning from a power perspective. While the batting average is there, France does leave you searching for a few more home runs than his competition. The fact that France is currently projected to bat cleanup for Seattle does help from an RBI perspective though. 

Just like with Mountcastle, there is some concern with Trey Mancini as it relates to Baltimore moving the outfield fence back. Mancini didn’t get all the way back to his 2019 levels (.291/35/97) last season (.255/21/71) but his comeback was still quite remarkable. Even at last year’s levels, Mancini won’t hurt you and his launch angle actually improved compared to 2019 while his barrel and hard-hit rates were consistent. 
 

I Have Questions

 


At this point, we know what Max Muncy is capable of after joining the Dodgers as he reached the 35-home run mark for the third time straight in a full-length season (36 in fact in 2021) while batting .249 and driving 94 runs. Had he not injured his elbow in October, Muncy would most certainly be in the above tier, but it was a serious injury and the lockout isn’t helping here as far as both his rehab goes and the news surrounding his status. I would hold here until we get greater clarity. 
 

 


The trade to New York didn’t work out according to plan for Anthony Rizzo in what was an overall down season for the veteran. From a batting average perspective, it was the second straight rough year (.248 with a .258 BABIP) and the power output also dropped to 21 home runs and 61 RBI. At this point, Rizzo is without a home for the 2022 season, and it’s possible he ends up back with the Cubs, but regardless of where he signs, I would at least expect regular playing time for him. Based on his steady Statcast metrics, I’m not completely ready to write Rizzo off just yet, but you do have to be realistic here. 

 


After a combined 27 home runs in his last two full seasons, Joey Votto exploded from a power perspective by going deep 36 times while driving in 99 runs. Votto is now another year older and he did sell out for those home runs as his contact rate did drop to 71% last year but the quality of the contact did rise as he posted a barrel rate of 17%. There’s no reason not to expect the power to remain for another season, but he has to decline at some point, right?
 

 


Wouldn’t it be nice if Brandon Belt could just stay healthy? Belt’s power was off the charts last season as he posted a .323 ISO and we can believe everything we saw even if he clearly eclipsed his previous career-high of 17 home runs with 29 in just 97 games last season. There is replacement value if Belt does have a stint or two on the Injured List as we have become accustomed to, and it’s worth rolling the dice here as the value works. 

 


It's unclear whether or not Luke Voit will have a starting job next season, or for which team those at-bats will come with. Additionally, we can’t ignore the biggest issue of all here, and that is Voit’s inability to stay on the field. If Voit can stay healthy, the power is real although he has had issues making contact in the past. 
 

Legit Power

For the purposes of this discussion, I’m lumping Bobby Dalbec and Miguel Sanó together. If I find myself light on power and comfortable in the batting average department, both make fine options to fill a corner infield spot. There is more risk associated with Dalbec since we haven’t seen him do it as long at the major league level, but his contact rate did improve last year and he did hit .269 in the second half of the season while going deep 15 times. In both cases, the power is real here, but the batting average risk is too. Dalbec could finish the year ranked higher, but with Sano, we have a better idea of what we are getting. 
 

 

 

Everyone Else

Depending on how deep your league is or what the format is, you might have to go pretty deep into this group. None of these options are perfect, and some are better than others, but we can’t overlook them. 

 


The fact that Jonathan Schoop is also eligible at second base means that is likely where he will be drafted. Detroit’s lineup around Schoop will likely be better this season and he once again is a solid option as we get a pretty consistent floor of at least 20 home runs and a batting average of around .255/.260.

I want to like Nate Lowe, and some could argue that he should be in one for the higher tiers, but he hits too many ground balls for my liking. It is possible though that a few more home runs could be out there for Lowe, but we do have to worry about the contact rate here as well. If you do want to believe, Lowe’s exit velocity will support your claim (90.8 miles per hour) but he does need to do some work on his launch angle (five degrees). 

Despite what the ADP might say, I’m not sleeping on Jesús Aguilar after he hit .261 with 22 home runs to go along with 93 RBI last season. Aguilar brought his fly ball rate up last season and he does have solid power metrics. 

We can’t ignore what Frank Schwindal did last season, but his power doesn’t stand out for me nor does his eight percent barrel rate. The Cubs don’t have much invested in Schwindal and it’s possible they bring a bat or two (Rizzo) that also takes away his playing time. There is also the concern that if he gets o to a slow start, Chicago won’t hesitate to look for another option. 
 

 


Carlos Santana still walks a ton so he is a better option in OBP leagues, but he was also unlucky in the second half last season from a batted ball perspective. We will get some power here too. 

Yes, Miguel Cabrera is another year older, but you can also do worse than the veteran first baseman. Cabrera’s skills are fading, but all is not lost in the power department. 

 


If you look at Rowdy Tellez from a Statcast perspective, there is a lot to like. There is real power potential here and a 12%-barrel rate last season didn’t hurt either. The DH helps Tellez from a playing time perspective and he could be a sleeper this season with regular playing time. 

Everything we see from Bobby Bradley from a power standpoint is real (17%-barrel rate), but a 59% contact rate isn’t going to do him any favors either. 

Eric Hosmer’s lack of power almost borders on embarrassing and you aren’t going to get much out of him when he has a barrel rate of just 5.8% along with a 56% groundball rate. At this point, the batting average is really just decent, so I’m keeping my distance unless it’s an NL-only league and I’m hunting at-bats. 

Christian Walker was injured most of last season, and we were left wondering where his power went. Things did get a little better in the second half as he traded some ground balls for fly balls, but there are more questions than answers here. 
 

 


Maybe one day, Keston Hiura will reach his potential? There is also a good chance he doesn’t as things have been pretty bad for him at the major league level to this point. The power is real, and the DH in the National League does help, but Hiura also needs to make contact at a rate much better than 53%. The price will most likely be right, so in deeper leagues, Hiura is worth a flier. 

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