This mock draft took place Monday, February 19 at 7:00pm EST and featured Howard Bender, Lisa Ann, Dan Malin, Chris Bouvier, and myself. It was a 12-team 5x5 roto league. It was hosted by RealTime Fantasy Sports and was a part of Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army. Information on how to join these drafts can be found at end of the article. I will break down each of my picks and what I like or dislike about each player.
For a link to the entire draft board, check it out here.
Pick 1.3 (3rd overall) Nolan Arenado
It was between Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt in my opinion, and while I don’t think the new humidor at Chase Field will kill Goldschmidt’s numbers, it was enough for me to give a slight edge to Arenado. Three straight seasons of 37+ home runs and 130+ RBI, what’s not to love?
Pick 2.10 (22nd overall) Francisco Lindor
Lindor brings the power/speed combo that you love to own in fantasy baseball. He plays a position that is pretty thin with top-tier talent, making this feel like the right time to go ahead and lock up my shortstop position.
Pick 3.3 (27th overall) Gary Sanchez
I took the first catcher of the draft and I couldn’t have been more stoked about it. The league settings called for two starting catchers and it’s a position notorious for bad fantasy numbers. Sanchez is coming off a 33 home run, 90 RBI, .278 batting average season and is a part of arguably the best lineup in baseball with its addition of Giancarlo Stanton this offseason.
Pick 4.10 (46th overall) Jacob deGrom
With no pitching through three rounds it was time to grab a starter, and deGrom was the guy. Through his first four seasons his career ERA sits at 2.98, and he has made at least 22 starts in each season. He has been consistent, and is coming off a season in which he had 239 strikeouts in 201.1 innings pitched (10.68 K/9). He is also my favorite player (there is nothing wrong with a little fan hood, but don’t ruin your draft because of it).
Pick 5.3 (51st overall) Chris Archer
I had Noah Syndergaard queued up and ready to be picked, but he was sniped from me, so I had to ‘settle’ with Archer. Not that I don’t love Archer (I think he is one of the most talented pitchers in the league) but there are some big negatives about him this year. First, he plays for one of the worst teams in baseball, meaning a low win count. Second, he has to face arguably the two best lineups in baseball on frequent occasions with the Yankees and Red Sox being in his division. He is, however, consistently among the strikeout leaders, finishing in the top-five in both 2016 and 2017. With deGrom and Archer I have a strong one-two punch.
Pick 6.10 (70th overall) Byron Buxton
It was surprising to see him still here, as most of the ADP’s and drafts I’ve been seeing had him going much earlier. There is no doubt some risk in this pick, but the upside is huge. Buxton started off last season freezing cold with a .147 batting average and zero home runs in 68 April AB. He really came on in the second half though, with post-All Star break numbers of 11 home runs, 13 steals, and a .300 batting average across 207 AB. He has that power/speed combo I love, so I was willing to take the risk on him as my first outfielder.
Pick 7.3 (75th overall) Alex Bregman
Bregman is another young player who brings the power/speed combo to the table. Last season he quietly finished with 19 home runs and 17 steals with a rock solid .284 batting in his first full season in the bigs. He helps you across the board of categories and if you had the chance to check out my article “When to Target Speed” you already know how much emphasis I put on getting these types of players. The less you have to worry about hurting in certain categories, the better.
Pick 8.10 (94th overall) Aroldis Chapman
Chapman is coming in at a discount price after his down season last year. I am not going to let one down season (he still had a 12.34 K/9 and 3.22 ERA) scare me off from one of the best relievers in MLB history. He plays for one of the best teams in baseball, and brings elite strikeout rates. This is a guy that had five straight seasons of a sub-2.54 ERA and is always among the best relievers in baseball in strikeouts. With Jansen and Kimbrel coming off the board in rounds three and four, Chapman in the eighth round is a steal.
Pick 9.3 (99th overall) Eric Hosmer
Hosmer will always be a better real life player than fantasy player, but at pick 99, I love him. He doesn’t hurt you in any category, and I needed a first baseman. The move from the Royals to the Padres doesn’t scare me at all. Petco Park (home of the Padres) ranks in the bottom 10 for hitting but so does Kauffman Stadium (home of the Royals). The Padres lineup has young talent and will be better than people expect, and Hosmer will likely hit third in it. I project him to hit about 20 home runs and drive in 90-to-100 runs.
Pick 10.10 (118th overall) Lance McCullers
I took a huge risk with making McCullers my number three starting pitcher given his injury history, but he has shown the ability to be a fantasy stud when healthy. He has a career 3.60 ERA with an even better career 3.14 FIP and has a career K/9 of 10.16. He also gets to pitch for the reigning champs and should be able to rack up some wins if he is able to stay on the field.
Pick 11.3 (123rd overall) Felipe Rivero
The hard throwing lefty had a fantastic season last year and there is no reason he can’t have a repeat performance as the Pirates closer. If you checked out my article “Drafting Closers” I mentioned how I like having elite relievers, and with Chapman and Rivero I believe I would have that. Rivero posted a 1.67 ERA last season to go along with a 0.89 WHIP and 10.51 K/9.
Pick 12.10 (142nd overall) Odubel Herrera
I will start by saying this; I did not love this pick. I don’t hate the pick, but he doesn’t really do much for you. Last season he finished with just 14 home runs and eight steals. However, he is still young and if he can get back to his 2016 numbers of 15 home runs and 25 steals, this would turn out to be a great pick. He hits for average and I needed to grab my second outfielder.
Pick 13.3 (147th overall) Mike Zunino
This pick has my catcher position locked up less than halfway through the draft and I absolutely love both players that I got. Last season, Zunino had the breakout campaign that myself and the Mariners have been waiting for from the talented young catcher, and he did it after an abysmal first two months of the season. At the end of May, Zunino was hitting .190 with one homerun and TWO RBI through 100 AB, and it was looking like another lost season for him. Then June happened. In June Zunino hit 10 bombs, drove in 31 runs, and hit .304. The breakout month helped him on his way to finishing the season with 25 home runs, 64 RBI, and a .251 average. He did all of that in just 387 AB. Numbers like that from my Catcher two? Yes, please.
Pick 14.10 (166th overall) Michael Conforto
Yes, he is out for the first month of the season, but that’s what DL spots are for. Conforto was hitting .279 with 27 home runs and 68 RBI through 373 AB before going down with the shoulder injury last season that required surgery. If he can provide that kind of production for the last five months of the season, this pick will be a steal despite the first month of action that he will miss.
Pick 15.3 (171st overall) Jeurys Familia
Oh how soon people can forget about recent production. Last season Familia was out the majority of the season with injury, but that is behind him now and he is healthy. In 2016 Familia led the entire league in saves with 51 and had a 2.55 ERA with a 9.73 K/9. He had three straight fantastic seasons from 2014-2016, and there is little reason to believe he can’t return to that production in 2018. STEAL.
Pick 16.10 (190th overall) Taijuan Walker
While everyone else is going nuts over the other D’backs starters with the news of the humidor expected to help them, no one is talking about Walker. This has me baffled. Walker quietly posted a 3.49 ERA last season with an 8.35 K/9 across 28 starts. He had crazy road/home splits, in which he was much better on the road. He had a 2.92 road ERA, but a 4.18 home ERA and also gave up 11 of his 17 home runs at home. If the humidor can bring those home numbers down a little closer to his road numbers, this is a guy that could be in line for a very strong season.
Pick 17.3 (195th overall) Nomar Mazara
My trend of taking young upside outfielders in this draft continues with this pick. Mazara is just 22 years old and is coming off a season in which he hit 20 home runs and had 101 RBI. He is projected to hit third in the Rangers lineup this year and there is no reason to believe he can’t, at the very least, repeat his numbers of 2017.
Pick 18.10 (214th overall) Jordan Montgomery
Montgomery is locked into the Yankees rotation this season and is coming off a fantastic rookie season in which he had a 3.88 ERA, nine wins, and 8.34 K/9 across 29 starts. He has the Yankees loaded lineup to produce runs for him and he could be looking at 15 wins this season if he can pitch at the level he did last season. There is a lot to like here. As the draft progresses you want to look for young talent that could make huge contributions to your team.
Pick 19.3 (219th overall) Kevin Gausman
Gausman is young and talented, but has been a roller coaster to this point in his career. Just when you think he has turned the corner, he has four straight starts of giving up five or more runs. Just when you think it’s time to give up on him being a quality pitcher, he flashes greatness with multiple starts of one run baseball. If he can finally put it altogether and consistently produce, this will be a nice late round pick.
Pick 20.10 (238th overall) Chris Owings
It took me way too long to grab a second baseman. Whit Merrifield, DJ LeMahieu, and Ozzie Albies were all guys that I wanted who were taken before I had the chance to grab them. Owings was off to a solid start last season with 12 home runs and 12 steals through 362 AB and was on pace for a 20-20 season before going down with injury. I would try to make a trade for one of the above second baseman’s if this were a real league, but if I was stuck with just Owings, I would be happy if he could give me a .250 average with 15 and 15.
Pick 21.3 (243rd overall) Michael A. Taylor
I am really surprised by how late you can get Taylor in drafts. He is currently plugged in as the Nationals everyday center fielder, and he was stud last season in less than 400 AB. He produced 19 home runs, 17 steals, and a .271 batting average in that limited playing time. This is a guy that could produce a 25-25 season that you can get very late in drafts. No brainer pick here.
Pick 22.10 (262nd overall) Amed Rosario
Rosario failed to impress the fantasy community in his brief time with the Mets last season (165 AB) and is now pretty much off everyone’s radar. He will be a better real life player than fantasy player, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a solid fantasy contributor at a weak position. Ten home runs, 25 steals, and a .280 average are reachable numbers for him. If he can work his way to the leadoff spot in the Mets lineup, he will be a solid own in fantasy.
Pick 23.3 (267th overall) Kyle Barraclough
This is me hoping he can pitch his way into the closing gig for the Marlins. Barraclough has been fantastic in his first three seasons in the bigs, with a career 2.87 ERA and 219 strikeouts in 163 innings pitched (12.09 K/9). He is easily the most talented reliever in the Marlins bullpen and should be the closer sooner or later.
Pick 24.10 (286th overall) Carlos Gomez
Yes, he is currently unsigned and that is something I would like to see change sooner rather than later, but Gomez is still a talented player and hopefully he can land a starting job. At this point in the draft, I was willing to take the risk on him. He brings the power/speed combo still; he finished with 17 home runs and 13 steals in just 368 AB’s in 2017. This late in the draft, I want players with high upside over players who I know will produce mediocre numbers for me. Update (2/21): Gomez has signed with the Rays. A great landing spot for him to play regularly. Perfect!
Pick 25.3 (291st overall) Steven Matz
Matz is injury prone. Matz is coming off a horrible season. Matz will likely be useless for fantasy in 2018. However, there is upside in the young lefty. Prior to last season, the Mets hurler produced a 2.27 ERA in six starts in 2015 and a 3.40 ERA in 22 starts in 2016. He also nearly had a 9.00 K/9 (163 strikeouts in 168 innings) in those first two seasons. At nearly pick 300 this is a low risk/high reward selection on a guy that is still just 26 years old.
Pick 26.10 (310th overall) Carl Edwards Jr.
Edwards brings strong ratios to the table and had an elite K/9 last season of 12.75. While he is not currently the Cubs closer, the departure of Wade Davis does open the door a bit for Edwards as a dark horse candidate for closing this season. This league doesn’t include holds, but in leagues that do, Edwards is an even better pick.
Pick 27.3 (315th overall) Shane Greene
With Edwards not being a lock to get saves, I used one of my last picks on a guy locked into a closing gig. Greene was a great asset to the Tigers last season, posting a 2.66 ERA and 9.71 K/9 while picking up nine saves after getting the job late in the season. Greene rounds out a strong relieving core for my roster that includes Chapman, Rivero, Familia, Barraclough, and Edwards.
Pick 28.10 (334th overall) Max Kepler
I had Jose Reyes in my sights as my last pick, to give me a versatile player on my bench who could play multiple positions. I am confident that my colleague Dan Malin picked him right before my pick just to spite me (knowing I am a Mets fan). I went with Kepler, which is the opposite of Reyes as he only has OF eligibility; but he is a young guy with some pop. He has the ability to hit 25 home runs.
Conclusion:
I love this team for a 12 team league, I think it’s well balanced and would compete in all categories.
You can take place in these drafts with the Fantasy Alarm crew by emailing mockdraftarmy@yahoo.com which will then allow you to pick whichever drafts fit your own schedule. It is a great tool for getting a good idea on how your real draft will go down.