Why Draft Them?
The elite closers can make a huge difference on your strikeouts, K/9, ERA, WHIP, and more depending on the categories offered in your league. The difference between an early round selection of Kenley Jansen and an end of draft selection of Fernando Rodney equated to only two extra saves. However, there were some huge differences in their value in other areas; Jansen had 44 more strikeouts, a 2.91 better ERA, and a 0.44 better WHIP. Those numbers may not sound like a lot, but over the course of a season that can make a huge difference on your pitching numbers. A huge bonus with elite closers is having them plugged into your lineup each and every day and not having to worry about if you need to chase saves or risk hurting your ratios using a low-end closer.
Better ratios/numbers that they produce is the first part of the equation. Another reason to draft a top-notch closer is the risk involved with not drafting an elite closer. If you choose to get low-end closers at the end of the draft you are banking on guys with low job security to provide you with saves without killing your ratios. Low job security closers can be tough to own, as a few slip-ups can result in them no longer being the teams closer. Once that happens, you are fighting with your other league members for that teams new closer, and if you are unable to land him, you are now looking at a gaping hole in your roster. This is the exact position that you do not want to be in. In roto leagues, falling too far behind in categories can prove to be enough of a difference between taking home the champion trophy and finishing in second or third.
Why Not Draft Them?
We will start with this: Last season the top-5 closers drafted (based on ADP) were Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Zach Britton, Mark Melancon, and Seung-Hwan Oh. If you played fantasy baseball last season or kept up with the MLB season you quickly noticed that only one of those five players was any good last season (Jansen). Chapman, Britton, and Melancon all spent significant time on the DL, and weren’t themselves in the games they did pitch in. Oh, was a breakout performer in 2016 but got off to an atrocious start to 2017 and quickly lost his job as the closer. Some of the top closers of 2017 (Alex Colome, Corey Knebel, Cody Allen, Felipe Rivero, and Raisel Iglesias) weren’t drafted among the top-13 closers, with Knebel and Rivero going completely undrafted in most leagues. If you play fantasy baseball each year this is something you will notice happens quite often. There is a lot of stress on a closers arm and that can lead to frequent DL trips. This opens the door for new closers regularly. New closers lead to new fantasy assets, and it’s a position with constant change. With so many injuries and so much change at the position, there is a lot of risk involved with drafting a closer early.
The second portion of why you don’t want to draft an elite closer is what you are losing by doing so. When you use an early round selection on a closer, you are missing out on a more high-end position player or starting pitcher. This can really be detrimental to your team if you don’t hit on your late round upside selections of position players or starting pitchers. Last season, if you drafted Zach Britton (ADP 60.4) before guys like Stephen Strasburg (ADP 61.1), Jacob deGrom (ADP 64.8), or J.D. Martinez (ADP 64.9) it is a decision I am sure you regret and one that may have cost you a title.
Chase Saves or Chase Strikeouts?
When using an early round selection on a closer do you go for someone who had a high save total last season or do you go for a guy who was a strikeout machine last season? The quick answer may bring you to thinking that the guy with the high save total is the better selection. Yes, saves are a big portion of what you want out of a closer. The problem with this idea is that save totals vary from year-to-year in great amounts. If you went into your 2017 draft targeting the top-seven save leaders of 2016, you would have missed on all but one of them. Only Kenley Jansen of the top-seven save leaders of 2016 landed in the top-seven of the 2017 save leaders. This is where my argument for targeting high strikeout closers comes into play. While save totals may be a bit volatile, high strikeout totals aren’t. For the most part, if a guy is good at striking out opposing hitters in one year, he is going to be good at it again the next. Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Cody Allen, Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Diaz, and Roberto Osuna are all guys that put up strong strikeout numbers in 2016 and then once again in 2017. Again, there is much more consistency in strikeouts than there is in save totals. Chasing strikeouts usually means having to draft some of the earlier round closers, but it is well worth it. In my experiences, having high-end relievers is a huge bonus to your team. Knowing how to work the waiver wire can fill the slight voids that may happen with your position players if you choose to take an elite closer.
Closers to Target
Kenley Jansen – Not much needs to be said here. Jansen is the most consistent closer in the game. He hasn’t had an ERA above 2.85 in his entire career, he has had a WHIP below 0.80 in three straight seasons, 100 or more strikeouts in four of his last five years, and 35+ saves in four straight seasons. Jansen comes with a high price tag on draft day, but it is safe pick that you likely won’t regret.
Corey Knebel – Knebel is one of the biggest risk/reward picks of 2018. Is he a one year wonder? Or is he a lockdown strikeout machine closer? Knebel had a ridiculous 2017 season in which he had 126 strikeouts in 76 innings and posted a 1.78 ERA. On top of the great ratios, he managed to rack up 39 saves, despite starting the season in a middle relief role where he also managed to secure 11 holds. Knebel is young and with only one strong season under his belt he is a risky early pick, but with his elite strikeout rates he is a risk worth taking.
Roberto Osuna and Edwin Diaz – These two young closers fall into the same category. They have had very similar strong starts to their careers and will likely be drafted next to each other in your fantasy baseball draft this season. Both pitchers provide strong strikeout rates and should be in line for yet another rock solid campaign in 2018.
Closers to Avoid
Wade Davis – This one is a bit obvious given his change of teams. Davis moves from The Cubs over to the Rockies. While Wrigley Field is by no means a pitchers park (it ranked as the fifth most favorable hitters’ park in 2017) it is by far better than Coors Field (it ranked as the most favorable hitting park in 2017). Ballpark factors can play a huge part on a pitchers success or failure. While Davis is still a great pitcher and will likely rack up saves in 2018, it would be crazy to expect a repeat performance of his 2017 ratios that he posted with the Cubbies.
Alex Colome – While Davis may have been obvious, this one may come as a surprise. Colome led the MLB in saves in 2017 with 47 and had six more than the next closest (Kenley Jansen and Greg Holland – 41 saves each). However, as mentioned above, you want to chase strikeouts/ratios more so than save totals. The Rays have lost some of their key players, most notable Evan Longoria, making an already unlikely repeat save total even less likely. Colome had only 58 strikeouts across 66.2 innings last season and had a mediocre ERA for a closer of 3.24. Colome is a solid closer, but not the high-end elite closer that he will likely be drafted as in 2018.