10-Team League
Matthew Boyd – This is likely the last week we see Boyd in this article as his ownership levels approach 90-percent in standard league formats. Boyd just continues to overpower his opponents with his impressive 11.5 K/9 an there is nothing in his underlying stats to show that a regression is coming. Opponents have a league average .295 BABIP off Boyd so it’s not as if he is getting extremely lucky when hitters make contact. His 3.05 ERA is met with a 2.10 FIP, 3.27 xFIP and a 3.13 SIERA. The only thing that stands out is Boyd’s ability to keep the ball in the park as he has allowed just two home runs over seven starts this season. His next start is going to come against the Angels who rank as the worst team in baseball against left-handed pitching though they also strikeout the least against southpaws so that BABIP will really be put to the test.
Caleb Smith – Smith is yet another southpaw that has made an impressive leap forward in 2019 as he is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA and an impressive 11.3 K/9. His underlying stats are also showing that these outings are no fluke as he owns a 2.83 FIP, 2.98 xFIP and a 3.05 SIERA. Smith is getting some solid batted ball luck with opponents having just a .224 BABIP but with his high strikeout rate that can play as hitters are just not making good contact here off Smith. He will face a dangerous Cubs lineup in his next start but there are also plenty of strikeout prone hitters on the Cubs so he may just be able to power through them.
Eduardo Rodríguez – Lets make it three lefties worth streaming this week in 10-team leagues shall we? Rodriguez allowed just one run over six innings while striking out six against the White Sox on Saturday night. The Sox pitching staff is finally starting to come around and Rodriguez has shown elite stuff in the past when he has everything work. He offers a ton of strikeout upside as well which makes him worth snagging for those looking to rack up some K’s. His next start will be at home against a Mariners lineup that does have some decent hitters against southpaws but on a whole has started to cool off since their strong start to the year.
12- Team League
Mike Soroka – Not to be outdone by teammate Max Fried , Soroka is establishing himself as a legit arm in the Braves rotation. We did see glimpses of this last season during his five starts which saw him post a 3.51 ERA but he also only had a 7.36 K/9. Through four starts this season his K/9 has jumped to 10.27 and he has yet to allow a home run which has allowed his ERA to sit at a shiny 1.14. His peripheral stats are also solid as he owns a 2.25 FIP, 3.03 xFIP and a 3.39 SIERA. The Braves have a ton of young talent and all of them are shining through right now. Soroka will next take the mound in Arizona against a solid Diamondbacks team.
Jake Odorizzi – My fear is that we are getting Odorizzi at the end of his hot stretch and a regression back to the mean is in order. To this point he has been quite impressive, going 4-2 with a 2.78 ERA while striking out 38 over 35.2 innings. His 2.78 ERA is matched by a 3.08 FIP, 4.48 xFIP and a 4.34 SIERA. The xFIP and SIERA are the cause for concern as it suggests that Odorizzi has been getting a bit lucky, especially with the home run ball as he has just a 4.9-percent HR/FB rate which is below the league average of about 10-percent. On the plus side his next outing will come against a dreadful Tigers offense that ranks towards the bottom of league in all statistics against RHP.
Matt Strahm – Strahm is part of a Padres rotation that is surprising some people to start the year. He himself is just 1-2 on the year but with a 3.03 ERA and an impressive 1.38 BB/9. Strahm in the past has been a solid strikeout pitcher though he has just a 7.44 K/9 so far now that he is a mainstay in the rotation. His next start will come at home which will be beneficial, and he will be facing a Mets lineup that has plenty of left-handed bats. Now, if you look at team batting stats you will actually see the Mets ranking towards the top of most categories however they also have the highest BABIP against LHP in the league at .371 which is not sustainable and to Strahm’s favor they have a 27.3-percent strikeout rate against southpaws which is the sixth highest in the league. With that K-rate and likely regression in the BABIP coming this could be a strong outing for Strahm.
15-Team League
Anthony DeSclafani – DeSclafani will make his start this upcoming week in San Francisco which is a huge beneficial park shift from pitching in the little league field that is the Great American Ballpark that he calls home. Over his last three starts, all on the road, DeSclafani has allowed just one run on nine hits over 17.2 innings while striking out 20. The Giants really struggle against right-handed pitching this season as they are hitting just .215 as a team with a 22.8% strikeout rate and a .276 wOBA.
Martín Pérez – I feel like we fall into this trap every season with Perez as he will have a stretch where team’s just can’t hit him. The other night he shutout the Astros over eight innings while striking out seven. In three of his last four starts he has allowed one of fewer earned runs while going at least six innings in every outing. His start this upcoming week will be against a Tigers team that has a 28.7-percent strikeout rate which is the third highest in baseball with a 3.09 wOBA and a .237 average against southpaws on the season.