Ten-Team Leagues
Eduardo Rodríguez (BOS) – The first two players listed have relatively high ownership. Never fret, for I will compensate by adding an extra name or two in the event the first two guys aren’t available. If you haven’t been following the Red Sox (shame on you), E-Rod has looked pretty damn good lately. He’s recorded a win in each of his last four starts and in six of his last eight outings he’s recorded at least seven strikeouts. If you play in a league that utilizes quality starts he’s a bit of a risk because he’s only gotten through six innings once in his last six starts. Regardless, the run support is there for him and he’s a great streamer if available in your shallow league. He gets two starts next week both on the road in Baltimore and Seattle. He’s definitely in play for the first game against the O’s who struggle to hit lefties. The second matchup is a bigger gamble, but it comes on Sunday. So use Rodriguez if you desperately need to, but it may be worth avoiding that matchup if you can afford it.
Jon Gray (COL) – Jon Gray , like Rodriguez, carries a higher ownership but also gets two starts on the road this coming week. For Gray, that’s HUGE. Jon Gray is absolutely due for positive regression. He has a 5.66 ERA on the year, but his FIP is 3.13 and yes his fantasy value takes a hit because of where he plays, but in general he’s been a good pitcher in the past even in Coors. He still carries a 10.41 K/9 on the year and averages 2.83 BB/9 as well. By all accounts that’s pretty good. Since April 25th he’s inducing a 14.2% swinging strike rate and his fastball still averages around 95mph. He’s had some rough starts, but I’m feeling pretty good about his outings against Philadelphia and then Texas. The Phillies and Rangers are first and second in the league in strikeouts against right-handed pitching so this could be a great spot to use Gray, especially in DFS.
Jack Flaherty (STL) – Lets keep it rolling with two-start streaming options! Flaherty gets a very good matchup on Monday against the Padres at home and then a potentially dangerous matchup against the Cubs during Sunday Night Baseball. Flaherty’s in need of a “get right” start because he’s given up seven earned runs in his last two starts (ten innings of work). The first matchup is very tempting against San Diego. The Padres have struck out the fourth-most against right-handed pitching, and as a team they’re slashing .233/.299/.375 so they’re pretty putrid. The Cubs are obviously fairly concerning especially with Anthony Rizzo raking right now. Flaherty’s in a similar spot to E-Rod listed above in that if you need to use him for the second start proceed with caution, but he’s absolutely in play for the first outing.
Caleb Smith (MIA) – Somebody actually got on my case a week or so back after I recommended Smith and he didn’t do so great. I’m paraphrasing but they’re quote was basically “Nice call on Smith. It makes sense that he plays for Miami cause he’s gone M.I.A.” But sue me for staying loyal to the guy. Earlier this year the Giants were a team to target, but they’ve flexed a lot more lately and the offense has been showing up more. And here’s a little caveat: Smith isn’t a two-start pitcher next week, but his next two starts both come against the Giants. And I’m on board for the matchup against them next week mostly because the start comes at home. Smith has an ERA of 3.51 at home this year compared to 4.41 on the road. The slashing splits between home and road are almost identical. What kills Smith on the road is that he’s given up more home runs outside Miami. He’s only surrendered two home runs all year in Marlins Park so he’s getting a park upgrade with the matchup for next week. And of course I’ll always plug his high spin rate and 11.04 K/9.
Marco Gonzales (SEA) – Gonzales really doesn’t get enough credit. But since April 24th he’s gone at least six innings in each of his last eight starts save for one outing where he fell one out short. His strikeout numbers aren’t great considering he only averages 7.20 K/9, but he doesn’t issue many walks (2.52 BB/9), and he can keep the ball in the ballpark pretty well (0.54 HR/9). His 3.26 FIP compared to his 1.98 ERA over his last eight starts is somewhat concerning, but he faces the Angels next week and the Halos aren’t exactly the greatest offense against left-handed pitching. They’re slashing just .230/.319/.391 all of which rank in the bottom ten in the league against southpaws.
12-Team Leagues
Clay Buchholz (ARI) – Surprisingly Buchholz has gotten off to a good start in his tenure with Arizona. Sure he has a 3.37 FIP compared to a 1.88 ERA, but for a guy who has long been an afterthought you can’t complain too much. His strikeout totals are minimal although he does have 16 over his last two starts. But in 24 innings of work he’s only allowed three walks and three home runs (all of which came on the road). Buchholz gets two home starts next week against the Pirates and then the Mets. The velocity is gone on his fastball, but he’s utilizing four pitches in his repertoire. He’s not the sexiest name anymore but he may have some value next week with two decent matchups.
C.C. Sabathia (NYY) – To the shock and awe of very few, Sabathia eventually hit the regression wall. Up until May 4th he had a 1.39 ERA, but a 3.55 FIP so he was clearly getting very fortunate. Over his last five starts he’s been awful. In 25.1 innings of work he has 21 strikeouts, ten walks, and he’s allowed 18 earned runs while surrendering seven home runs. His ERA now sits at 3.59 on the year. He’s a two-start pitcher next week and while I’m not a fan of the first start at home against the Nationals, I do think he’s in play for his second start against the Rays. The Rays are pretty decent against left-handed pitching, but I like Sabathia to twirl at least six innings and log a quality start in this one. He even has the offensive support to get a win in that spot to finish next week.
Lance Lynn (MIN) – After getting off to an abysmal start to 2018, Lynn has found his stride since the beginning of May. Over his last six starts (currently three straight wins) he is 4-1 with a 3.34 ERA (3.30 FIP), and he’s allowed just one home run in his last 32.1 innings of work. He only has 29 strikeouts and the 15 walks are a bit of an eyesore, but he’s worth streaming if you need a win or at the very least a quality start. He’s not the biggest strikeout machine as evidenced above, but he’s hitting his stride and is worthy of being streamed.
Deeper League Options
Steven Wright (BOS) – Assuming the Red Sox will keep Steven Wright in the rotation for the foreseeable future, he’s in line for two starts next week. Like Rodriguez he’ll face the Orioles and Mariners next week, both on the road. The first matchup is an obvious start against Baltimore. Wright had a rough start to the year out of the bullpen. Since May 24th, between relief and in his lone start he hasn’t allowed a run to score in 16 innings of work. Obviously the start against Seattle comes with some concern, but that first start against the O’s is worth targeting in deeper leagues.
Kyle Gibson (MIN) – I’ll never fully understand why Kyle Gibson is only 24% owned in Yahoo! leagues. But if he is available in your deeper league give him a stream next week. The matchup sucks on the road against Cleveland, but I’d rather take a reliable arm in a tough matchup than an iffy player in a good matchup. On the year Gibson has a 3.54 ERA and a 9.57 K/9. A guy with such low ownership is averaging more than a strikeout per inning. The biggest knock on Kyle Gibson is that he hasn’t logged a win since March 31st. He is 1-3 after 12 starts. Since April 26th he’s given up three runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts and he’s averaging 10.01 K/9 over that span. He’s a fairly reliable arm. And yeah the matchup is rough, but I’d rather stream Gibson in a deeper league than go dumpster diving for some no-named pitcher with a better matchup.
Mike Montgomery (CHC) – Montgomery shares a similar route to the rotation to that of Steven Wright in that they both started in the bullpen, but have found their way to the rotation via injury to a teammate. Montgomery will log a few starts while Yu Darvish is sidelined with a triceps injury. In two starts (11.2 innings of work) Montgomery has nine strikeouts, one walk, and he’s allowed just four hits. The lone run he gave up came off a solo home run to Michael Conforto . He’s not very appealing, but these are deeper league options after all and Montgomery faces the Brewers next week. While Milwaukee does have a potent offense they struggle heavily against lefties to a slash line of .223/.304/.363 and they’ve only hit 14 home runs off southpaws which is the fifth-fewest in all of baseball. The Cubs have won nine of their last 11 games so hopefully streaming Montgomery pays dividends with a win.
Tyler Mahle (CIN) – Mahle gets a road start in interleague play against the Royals. Obviously the fact that he won’t have the benefit of pitching to an opposing pitcher is a mild downgrade, the Royals aren’t the Yankees or Red Sox. As a team they do hit fairly well with a collective .251 batting average, but their OBP is just .314 and they’re only slugging .384 so this is a nice spot for Mahle. At one point Mahle was a victim of the long ball, but over his last three starts (15 innings) he’s kept everything inside the ball. The walks aren’t ideal and he’s not the best source for strikeouts, but it’s a matchup play and the Royals average less than four runs per game.