Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Spread: LAC -2.5

Total: 218.5

Injuries:

Minnesota

Karl Anthony-Towns QUEST

D’Angelo Russell QUEST

Los Angeles

Nicolas Batum QUEST

Jay Scrubb QUEST

Paul George OUT

Isaiah Hartenstein OUT

Luke Kennard OUT

Kawhi Leonard OUT

Iviva Zubac OUT

MVP/Captain

Karl-Anthony Towns, C or D’Angelo Russell, PG/SG – In a game that is seriously in danger of missing all of its star power, Towns or Russell being available would be welcome news to those looking for a viable ceiling option for their MVP spots. As of this writing, both enter the game as unknowns.

If he comes out of protocols, Towns will look to lay waste to the rest of the league like he was in the 10 games prior to his missed games. He was averaging 45 DK points per game before entering protocols and now gets a Clippers team that is really struggling against centers in their last seven games. The Clippers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to centers in that time, including a league-leading 10.34 rebounds per game. Without Ivica Zubac and Hartenstein to man the paint, Los Angeles is relying on Marcus Morris and Serge Ibaka to guard centers. The size advantage should work in Towns’ favor tonight. 

Russell has missed 10 days after testing positive for COVID, and was technically eligible to come back Sunday night against the Lakers but was not able to get out of protocols. The Timberwolves desperately need his playmaking on the second night of a back to back and the last we saw Russell, that’s exactly what he was doing. He torched the Jazz for 50.8 DK points two days before Christmas despite only shooting 35% from the field. His assist numbers have ticked way up lately, which aligns perfectly with the fact that the Clippers have allowed a league-high 10.71 assists to opposing point guards in the last two weeks. 

Anthony Edwards, SG/SF – In the absence of Russell and Towns, Edwards has absolutely been carrying the Timberwolves on his back lately. He has scored more than 30 DK points in nine of ten games, and is coming off a game where he put up 33 DK points despite shooting 35.8% from the floor and not hitting a three pointer for the first time October 30th. In their last 15 games, the Clippers are the seventh-worst team against small forwards and have allowed the position to put up 23.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.7 three pointers per game. If Russell and Towns are limited at all, I have no problem going back to Edwards tonight. The last two times Edwards played in a second night of a back to back, he averaged 40 minutes in those games.

Utility

Reggie Jackson, PG – In the absence of so many Clippers, Jackson has really taken the mantle of go-to player on offense. His $9,400 salary reflects the fact that he has scored over 30 DK points in six of his last nine games and has played less than 30 minutes just twice in that span, both blowouts. Most importantly, Jackson has not seen a usage rate under 20% since November and Minnesota allows 22 points and 9.36 assists to the position this year. 

Marcus Morris, SF/PF – After missing almost two weeks from COVID protocols, Morris has been playing out of his mind over his last three games. Averages of 39.4 DK points and 22.3 actual points accompany the 34.3 minutes per night since he returned and his presence will be needed with the Clippers shorthanded. Morris also chips in with seven rebounds per game and will face a team that ranks just 22nd in rebound rate this year. 

Eric Bledsoe, PG – Bledsoe has been much more of a boom or bust player the last two weeks, with three games over 38 DK points and three games under 30 DK points in that span. But apart from one strange game where he only played 17 minutes, Bledsoe has been above 24 minutes the last two weeks and should be in line to start tonight. Minnesota gives up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards. 

Value Tier

Serge Ibaka, PF/C – As mentioned before, both Zubac and Hartenstein remain out for Los Angeles, so Ibaka is going to be called up once again to play a big chunk of minutes against the Minnesota frontcourt. At just $4,000, his salary is just too cheap for the role he could play here and for the defensive stats he brings to the table. The Timberwolves are the fourth-worst team in the league against opposing centers and they rank 28th in defensive rebound rate and allow the sixth-most blocks per game this season (5.5).