There are a lot of influences that contribute to rapid change in fantasy football Average Draft Position. Pre-season action, injuries, articles from beat writers and fantasy football analyst talk are a few of those influences. It’s up to your will to win and research you do that will help you develop your own draft target list. If you like a player, even if that player is falling far and fast, use it as an opportunity to invest in the player at a cheaper value.

Risers

Raheem Mostert (Last Week ADP 80.15 -Today ADP 75.24): There’s a lot of instant over-reaction when it comes to rookies and as we get deeper into the pre-season, Mostert has been getting more love in drafts because Trey Sermon’s role is looking like it will be more in the air than on the ground and that’s a good sign for Mostert. Mostert gets dismissed a lot because of his past health issues. Yes, he’s played just one 16-game season in his career, but that doesn’t change the fact that when he’s on the field, he’s a powerhouse and has run for at least 5 yards per carry in each of his last 4 seasons. He’s behind a strong offensive line in San Francisco and being that he’s a currently a seventh round pick in 12-team leagues and would be a good depth Running Back to draft as your 3rd or 4th RB. He doesn’t catch many passes, but, until he gets hurt, expect him to lead the team in carries as the 29-year old looks to bring back 2019 in which he played a full season and muscled in 8 touchdowns on 137 carries.

Corey Davis (Last Week ADP 116.46-Today ADP 98.78): The Jets receiver is flying up draft boards as fantasy players are more into rookie Quarterback Zach Wilson as of late and Davis is coming off of a strong pre-season outing. In four seasons with the Titans, Davis had 100-plus targets in just one of those seasons and he should have his second of his career this year. The Jets gave Davis a three-year deal in the offseason and we should expect the Jets to throw more being that they are still figuring out their run-game and unless we see vast offensive line improvements from last year early, Wilson will constantly be on the run looking for his receivers. Davis had a career-high 984 receiving yards with 5 Touchdown receptions. He only caught 65 passes last year (which tied his career-best from 2018), but the Jets don’t have a dominant receiver like A.J. Brown and Davis will be the highest priority among the Jets receiving corps and seeing him go in the 9th round of 12-team leagues still makes him a good value.

Marquez Callaway (Last Week ADP 154.28-Today ADP 131.55): This significant jump in ADP is not surprising seeing how strong of a pre-season Callaway has had. Michael Thomas and Adam Trautman are hurt and Alvin Kamara and Tre’Quan Smith can’t hog all of the targets and Callaway should expect to be involved in the offense at least early on. Reports are also out that Jameis Winston will start for the Saints in their season opener and that also bodes well for Smith who was on the receiving end of two touchdowns from Winston in their game versus the Jaguars. Winston will have a better connection with Callaway especially on deeply thrown ball. Callaway has posted at least 20 yards per catch through two pre-season games. Even though it’s just pre-season, the opportunity is their for Callaway to have a solidified role heading into week 1 and we will likely see his draft stock rise even further up boards as we head deeper into draft season.

Fallers

Darrell Henderson (Last Week ADP 47.63-Today ADP 52.94): Cam Akers is hurt and the Rams have a very strong offensive line and while they do have a lot of receivers, Henderson should get plenty of love in the offense. He’s dealing with a slightly sprained Thumb but that shouldn’t hold him down and neither should Sony Michel, who the Rams just traded for. To some, it’s very discouraging seeing a team trade for more depth. Is it a sign that the team doesn’t believe Henderson can get the job done? Not necessarily. Teams need depth because of how often injuries occur in sports and they don’t really know what they have in Xavier Jones and Jake Funk. Remember, Michel played in just nine games last season himself. Henderson will also get a good amount of passes thrown his way, while Michel is mainly a runner. Behind that impressive Rams o-line, Henderson rushed for 4.5 yards per carry and rushed in 5 scores. Henderson isn’t exclusively a pass-catching back. He’s dropped from being a fourth round pick to being a fifth round selection in 12-team leagues.

Ja'Marr Chase (Last Week ADP 57.67-Today ADP 62.21): As excited as fantasy fans were when the Bengals drafted Chase a few months ago, the last month has left a sour taste in the mouths of many fantasy players due to Chase’s issues with dropping passes during last week’s preseason game. Another critique on Chase over the last number of weeks has been his inability to shake defenders in training camp. What we’re seeing now from Chase before any true professional experience could present an opportunity for those that don’t believe that this month has been a sign of things to come for him. He was a top five draft pick and he has a ton of familiarity with Quarterback Joe Burrow who himself is looking like he’s healthy and ready to start week one of the season. Burrow and Chase hooked up for 20 Touchdowns at LSU in 2019 and with the investment the Bengals put into Chase, he’ll get plenty of targets from Burrow even if he needs some time to get used to playing at this level. If a defender is not all over him and he catches a pass, Chase will blow him away with his speed. Draft him as your third Wide Receiver.

Dallas Goedert (Last Week ADP 95.65-Today ADP 102.77): A major story throughout the offseason has been what we thought was the inevitable ending of the relationship between the Eagles and Zach Ertz. Well, the season is only a couple of weeks away and Ertz is still on the team. He hasn’t been traded and it’s looking more like he’s in Philly to stay with the start of the season just a couple of weeks away. Goedert’s ADP has fallen obviously because fantasy players are turned off to Goedert having his targets eaten into by another player at the same position. Between Jalen Hurts issues throwing the ball last season (completing just 52 percent of his passes) and the fact that Ertz hasn’t been dealt puts a damper on Goedert’s fantasy ceiling and he’s a risky starting Tight End in fantasy. He caught 46 passes in 11 games last year and with the Eagles new offense it’s hard to tell how involved both Tight Ends will be on a game-by-game basis.