2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Ian Happ

Ian Happ

Amongst all the question surrounding the Cubs ever revolving lineups, we are left to wonder where will Ian Happ fit in? Happ is off to a strong start to his spring, carrying over the power he displayed over the last two month of 2017 which saw him averaging a home run every 12.82 at-bats. Happ is also in competition to lead-off this season for the Cubs during the games he plays.

Herein lies the question, how much will Happ play and when he does, what position and where in the lineup? Before going all Abbott and Costello in this, some facts first in regards to what positions he played along with how much of the team share he logged at each one:

• In Left Field: 23 games, 47 at-bats, 7.5 percent of the team total.
• In Center Field: 52 games, 155 at-bats, 24.9 percent of the team total.
• In Right Field: 11 games, 31 at-bats, five percent of the team total.
• At Second Base: 37 games, 109 at-bats, 17.5 percent of the team total.

Without a set position and knowing Joe Maddon’s propensity to move players around the field, along in the lineup, it’s tough to project exactly where Happ will fit in each aspect. After being promoted in May, Happ appeared in 115 games with 364 at-bats, 62 runs, 24 home runs, 68 RBI, eight stolen bases and a .253/.328/.514 slash line. Also, he recorded a .349 weighted on-base average, a .261 isolated power and 113 weighted runs created plus.

Happ’s spring power along with rumors of batting atop a talented and deep Cubs lineup is fueling his rising average draft position. In order to see how Happ progressed last year, here is a chart showing his statistics by month. Note the rise in hard hit contact (HH% in the chart) which could portend his power spike the last two months translating to this season:

Although Happ did not hit for more home runs in the second half compared to the first, the growth in the batted ball data suggests the power will be legit. Happ hit in every spot in the lineup last season but logged the most at-bats batting fifth for 35 games. Moving to first would impact his counting statistics by reducing his RBI but increasing his runs. It’s almost a push, but the two would not necessarily grow together depending on how he’s utilized in the batting order.

Before diving head first into the Happ hype train, his xSTATS (expected statistics) suggest some work needs to be done with his slash line. According to xSTATS, Happ’s line looks different at .236/.314/.471 last year with 21.8 expected home runs compared to his 24. It’s reaching a bit, but something to be cognizant of. For those in daily league lineups or those who partake in daily contests, Happ hits for a higher average versus southpaws and for power versus right-handed pitchers:

• Happ vs. LHP: 105 at-bats, five home runs, .276/.313/.476, 98 wRC+
• Happ vs. RHP: 259 at-bats, 19 home runs, .243/.334/.529, 118 wRC+

This carried over from his time in Triple-A, but Happ did hit them both well in High-A in 2016 which could provide hope for future growth as he adjusts to the majors. Before looking at his projections, here’s the results of a poll asking Fantasy Alarm followers how many at-bats they project Happ to receive this year:

• 400 - 450 AB: 40 percent of the vote
• 451 - 475 AB: 29 percent
• 476 - 500 AB: 20 percent
• 500+ AB: 11 percent

Most feel like Happ will not reach his projected totals forecast by three different sites. Happ did play 62 games after the All-Star break which bodes well for him going forward, but he will not be a full-time player unless an injury or trade arises. Here’s his projections:

Steamer seems to agree with the 40 percent of voters with 456 at-bats and a repeat of his 24 home runs from last year. It does increase his RBI thinking Happ will hit fifth, not first like the Cubs seem to be thinking about. Depth Chart and ZiPS seem a bit more aggressive with at-bats and the power.

There’s much to like in Happ’s profile as a former first round pick on a playoff contending team. Fantasy owners will need to account for the fluidity of where Happ plays as much as where he will hit in the lineup. With so many questions surrounding him, it seems risky to take him where he is being drafted, but this also depends on roster construction. Owners looking for power with some speed at middle infield could greatly benefit from Happ since he does not kill batting average.

Happ’s ability to potentially benefit teams in the four counting categories seems enticing, but pay close attention to where he’s slated to hit this year. Underlying data agrees there’s growth possible in the power department, just do not plan for too much. If Happ reaches 475 or more at-bats, then 26-to-28 home runs seem within reach. It will be interesting to look back on how Happ’s deployed this year, but speculation can be justified. Just go in with eyes wide open.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, MiLB.com, xSTATS.org, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski