Sharing a nickname with the Norse god of thunder, Noah Syndergaard, or “Thor” seems to thrive in spite of it. His strong 2016 season combined with news of his bulking up prior to the start of 2017 spiked his draft ADP to the fourth pitcher overall and at pick 17.68 overall according to NFBC data. After totaling 179.2 innings in 2015 and a slight uptick to 183.2 in 2016, Syndergaard proved to be a reliable source of strikeouts in his two year sample. Fantasy owners hoped the added size would enable Syndergaard to approach close to 200 innings last year, but injuries befell him creating a lost season.

After forcing his way into the top four pitchers selected last year, Syndergaard seems like a wild card in drafts the weeks ahead. His last start dates back to April 30th of 2017*, and after buying into the Norse mythology, Syndergaard has now changed his training routine incorporating more yoga and less weights in order to avoid the muscular injury he incurred which ended his season. When pitchers add muscle, it can throw off the memory and repetition of the pitching motion which can cause injury.

But trying to predict how many innings Syndergaard will throw adds fuel to the fire of how and when to target him in drafts. Stephen Strasburg seemed to reach a new level in the second half to leapfrog Syndergaard in early ADP along with Madison Bumgarner and Luis Severino. Severino threw gas on his way to a breakout in New York but Bumgarner lost velocity on his fastball after his dirt bike incident and carries some of the same risk of Syndergaard.

Before trying to figure out what Syndergaard’s capable of this year, let’s assess his results to this point. Although his season only reached 30 innings, Syndergaard did improve his strikeouts minus walks percentage from 22.4 in 2015, to 23.5 in 2016 and to 25 percent last year in a small sample. His ERA- reached a career best two years ago at 65 and seemed in line with his results last season as did his swinging strike percentage.

Over the last three years, Syndergaard’s won 24 games, lost 18 with 418 strikeouts in 364 innings against 77 walks with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. Delving a bit deeper under the hood, Syndergaard’s xbbFIP (expected batted ball fielding independent pitching) peaked in 2016 at 2.35 with an expected average (xAVG) of .221 and .258 expected on-base average (xOBA). All of these numbers went up last year, but with his mechanics potentially out of line, Syndergaard’s spring will be very important to assess his value.

However, based on underlying statistics, Syndergaard could be a bargain due to his similarities to half of the “Big Four” starting pitchers in drafts. Using some batted ball data metrics along with discipline results from the last three years. Here’s how Thor stacks up with both Corey Kluber and Chris Sale:

Not only does Syndergaard’s swinging strike percentage of 13.4 the last three years rank fifth of all starting pitchers to throw at least 350 innings the last three years, but his ERA- of 75 ranks tied for seventh and his strikeouts minus walk rate places sixth. Also, factor in Syndergaard owning three pitches which generate a whiff per swing rate over 40 percent according to BrooksBaseball.net:

  • Change-up: 41.9 percent
  • Slider: 47.49 percent
  • Curve: 45.38 percent

There’s going to be risk associated with Syndergaard in regards to his price point this season when looking back to his injury shortened 2017. But, last year’s ADP of 17.68 seems less daunting than his present cost of 34.10 or a third round selection in NFBC drafts. Could he be limited to 150 innings by the Mets? Possibly. But a return to the 175 range opens the door for profit, especially if Syndergaard keeps his past strikeout rates. Only 16 pitchers last year eclipsed the 200-strikeout threshold which Syndergaard’s accomplished once as a professional.

Currently, Syndergaard’s clumped with Luis Severino, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco. With the American League East shaping up to be a grind, deGrom appearing the safe play and Carrasco with injury risk of his own, why not Syndergaard in this small tier? Different players own varying levels of risk aversion, but Syndergaard could return to his 2016 level at a reduced price. There’s no guarantee he will put together another campaign like 2016 this year, but there’s also a chance he reaches the levels fantasy owners speculated on in drafts last season. Feeling lucky?

One cannot draft a team stocked with inherent risk, but Syndergaard’s potential to yield profit makes him intriguing this year. With every strong inning in spring, his stock may rise so pounce until the market normalizes or avoid if risk averse. 

*Editor's Note: Syndergaard technically made two starts late in 2017 (Sept. 23 & Oct. 1) but he only threw three innings in total and both appearances were more rehab sessions than they were actual starts.