MLB Streaks & Trends: Grandal En Fuego

Who's Hot

Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox

For a second straight week, a graduate from the migration to the mean portion of these weekly posts appears on the hot list. Grandal's on fire since his return from the injured list hitting .469/.581/.1.031 over the last two weeks spanning 43 plate appearances. Of his 15 hits, eight resulted in extra-bases (three doubles, five home runs) fueling his robust .563 isolated power and .625 weighted on-base average (wOBA). He's produced eight barrels (28.6 percent) and 17 hard hits (exit velocity of 95 MPH-plus) within his last 28 batted ball events suggesting the power explosion could be maintained through the end of the season. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto

While many pointed out his lack of power during a stretch in August, Toronto's MVP candidate turned up the heat in New York hitting home runs in three games of their four game set helping his team sweep the Yankees on the road. During the last two weeks, Guerrero Jr.'s slashing .400/.441/.745 with 13 runs, six home runs and 10 RBI through 59 plate appearances. He generated 48 batted ball events in this time frame with seven barrels (14.6 percent) and 27 hard hits (56.3 percent) with a launch angle of 9.8 degrees, pretty, pretty, pretty good. 

Bobby Dalbec, Boston

For fantasy players migrating towards football, this month can reveal sleepers for next season. Dalbec could be an interesting case with the growth he's demonstrating recently. Over the last two weeks he's batting .297/.395/.703 with four runs, three doubles, four home runs and 10 RBI in 43 plate appearances. Of more intrigue, he's produced a 14.3 walk percentage and a 25.6 strikeout rate. Cutting down on strikeouts and maintaining his power may make him a terrific target in 2022 drafts at corner infield. He's recorded 26 batted ball events in these 11 games with eight barrels (30.8 percent) and 15 hard hits (57.7 percent). Stay tuned for the rest of his September, but he may be planting the seeds of a breakout next year. 

Who's Not

Joey Gallo, New York Yankees

As someone who imagined how Gallo's power would play in Yankee Stadium, it's disappointing if he cannot make contact. A noted streaky hitter, he's in the midst of a slump with a .098/.275/.195 slash his last two weeks over 12 contests and 51 plate appearances. His defense keeps him in the lineup for New York, but fantasy players should bench him until he shows signs of life. It goes deeper as well, in 128 at-bats with his new team, Gallo's only hit six home runs with a .133 average and a .602 OPS, less than optimal. 

Patrick Wisdom, Chicago Cubs

With a skill set akin with Gallo, Wisdom has hit for power with four home runs his 12 games spanning 51 plate appearances but with a .178/.275/.511 slash line. Of more concern, his strikeout percentage spike of 43.1 percent in this sample with a .211 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) making him a boom or bust player reliant on home runs for fantasy viability. Tread lightly and he's a fade candidate for 2022. 

Byron Buxton, Minnesota

One of the most polarizing players in fantasy baseball, Buxton since his return from the injured list has not been great. It can take time, but he's slashing .122/.157/.224 his last 12 games in 51 plate appearances with five runs, one home run and two RBI. No stolen bases within this time frame and a .102 isolated power, .156 BABIP and .167 wOBA means he may require the bench in the days ahead. Stay tuned. 

Migration to the Mean

Francisco Lindor, New York Mets

With the Yankees arriving for a Subway Series, could Lindor be a key for success this weekend? He's showing signs of life in regards to counting statistics with 10 runs, two home runs and 10 RBI in his last 52 plate appearances. But can he move his average within his expected numbers with a hot streak? 

• .223 batting average versus a .247 expected batting average (xBA) - plus 24 points
• .376 slugging percentage versus a .419 expected slugging (xSLG) - plus 43 points
• .302 wOBA versus a .333 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) - plus 31 points

Joey Votto, Cincinnati

After addressing he changed his approach this year, a slump ensued in the power department but Votto snapped a 16-game homerless streak on Wednesday. Could he finish strong helping his team into the postseason? 

• .269 batting average versus a .276 xBA - plus 7 points
• .547 slugging percentage versus a .586 xSLG - plus 39 points
• .383 wOBA versus a .403 xwOBA - plus 20 points

D.J. LeMahieu, New York Yankees

Planning a regression in power compared with last year made sense with LeMahieu, however, the drop in batting this year confounds fantasy players. How he finishes may set his ADP in 2022 but with teams adjusting their defense and pitching with his opposite field approach should be monitored over the last three weeks. His expected numbers suggest hope, but how much?:  

• .267 batting average versus a .275 xBA - plus 8 points
• .363 slugging percentage versus a .381 xSLG - plus 50 points
• .315 wOBA versus a .332 xwOBA - plus 17 points

Statistical Credits: 

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MLB.com