In terms of fantasy relevance, the third round of last year’s NFL Draft may have been the most pivotal. While the first round included potential long-term fantasy stars like Mitchell Trubisky , Patrick Mahomes , and Mike Williams , third-round impact-rookies Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt , arguably, defined the 2017 fantasy football season. In many respects, the 2018 draft can be looked at in the same fashion as the first round was, once again, littered with high-potential players – including five quarterbacks – but also players who may struggle to make an immediate impact. Contrarily, the third round of this year’s draft had a handful of notable rookies and even some with a direct path to early playing time. Translation: there are gems to be found in the third round once again.
Outlined below is every skill position player (QB, RB, WR, TE) taken in the third round. All six players will be separated into three different categories – Third-Round Rookies to Draft, Third-Round Rookies to Avoid, and Third-Round Waivers to Watch. Also noted will be the Third-Round Stud – the third-rounder who we at Fantasy Alarm think will have the biggest fantasy impact for the 2018 season. Last season we were very high on Cooper Kupp , which panned out well for Fantasy Alarm subscribers, as he amassed over 60 catches, 850 yards, and five touchdowns as a rookie.
Third-Round Rookies to Draft
Royce Freeman – RB, DEN
Leading up to this year’s draft, the Broncos informally renounced the rights to reserve running back Jamaal Charles and formally severed ties with incumbent starter C.J. Anderson . It was clear that Denver would be targeting the position come draft day. The first and second rounds came and went without the Broncos making their highly-anticipated backfield move, but it was in the third round where they planted their flag in Oregon standout Royce Freeman . While at first it was unclear if Freeman would be the immediate starter, worst case scenario seemed to be a time-share with Freeman serving as the thunder to Devontae Booker ’s lightning. Still now, leading up to training camp, a split backfield committee in Denver wouldn’t be surprising. However, recent quotes out of head coach Vance Joseph give the feeling that Freeman is closer to winning the job than playing reserve. When asked if Freeman’s name was in the conversation for lead back, Joseph responded with a resounding “absolutely.”
We’ve seen this story play out time and again when pertaining to rookie backs – a player with momentum, gaining trust and traction with the coaching staff, and has little competition at the position on the roster. Sounds a lot like the Kareem Hunt situation last season.
Now that you’re all worked up, allow for an explanation on the type of back we have in Freeman. He’s a hulking load at the position (5-foot-11, 234 lbs.) and plays like he’s built. Freeman buries defenders in his path and is rarely taken down without a gang-tackle. Despite his size and subsequent underwhelming, top-end speed, Freeman is also very nimble through the hole. His patience behind the line of scrimmage, something not often seen with rookie running backs, allows him to find daylight in cutback lanes. All of this, combined with an underrated ability on third downs as both a receiver and blocker, should spell plenty of fantasy success for Freeman early on in his career. Even if he doesn’t win the starting job outright when camp breaks, chances are he will begin his career as an elite red-zone threat. His fantasy floor is high, while his potential is even higher. This is a good player in a good fit which makes his seventh round ADP well worth the selection.
Michael Gallup – WR, DAL
Similar to Freeman’s situation, Gallup has little competition at his position, despite his rookie status. While Dallas has thrown a lot of names at their wide receiver problem, there are few guys on the roster who should be able to fill the shoes of Dez Bryant . As it stands, the Cowboys’ receiver depth chart includes familiar names like Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley , with additions such as Allen Hurns and Deonte Thompson . This has done little to calm the nerves of Dak Prescott dynasty owners. Based off of talent, there is no question that Gallup is the best receiver on the roster right now, while his skill-set and physical profile also make him the most well-rounded. He served as both a high-volume target and red zone monster in college, proving he can handle the responsibilities of a No. 1 option. He projects as a reliable red zone option and press-beater in the NFL, which is something Dallas is desperate for after the loss of both Bryant and tight end Jason Witten . Right now, Gallup is offering an ADP of 176, which in 12-team leagues is somewhere near the middle of the 14th round. In other words he is going undrafted in a lot of drafts. Best advice is to take a flier on him as early as you feel comfortable because he will be a real player in the Cowboys talented offense, sooner rather than later.
Third-Round Rookies to Avoid
Mason Rudolph – QB, PIT
This one is rather self-explanatory, as Rudolph will be given zero opportunity to push Ben Roethlisberger for the starting job in training camp. Beyond that, Rudolph is not exactly a high-potential quarterback and we have seen players with his type of resume fail in the NFL time and again. He appears to be just another big-bodied arm talent who feasted on weak defenses in college while operating out of a spread offense. His main draw is his natural talent to throw the deep ball, but inconsistent footwork and inaccuracy are what he needs to work on most. On the positive side for Rudolph, Big Ben is by no means the model of health and he even contemplated retirement during and after last season. Rudolph may have a shot at the starting quarterback job someday, but it will not be early on in 2018.
Jordan Akins – TE, HOU
Akins is going to be a 26-year old rookie with some deep-threat capabilities, a rarity at the tight end position. His background as a former minor league outfielder should only strengthen his case as a legitimate, downfield ball-tracker. However, his struggles with route-running, inline blocking and physical coverage cannot be ignored either. As for team fit, the Texans aren’t exactly flush with talent at the tight end position, though they do have a lot of bodies ahead of Akins on the current depth chart. Ultimately, there are really no strong feelings on Akins, but considering his lack of hype entering the draft, there isn’t really much of a buzz surrounding his name amongst the fantasy football community either. He easily could have gone on the waiver list, but chances are that he won’t be much of a player in 2018.
Third-Round Waivers to Watch
Mark Andrews – TE, BAL
Despite the fact that the Ravens had already drafted a tight end in the first round prior to selecting Andrews in the third, he still has a great chance to make a legitimate fantasy impact during his rookie season. For all that Hayden Hurst is as a complete tight end, he doesn’t offer the red zone upside or versatility in the same ways that Andrews does. Essentially, the plan is for Hurst to handle the traditional, inline duties of the tight end position while Andrews will serve as the “move” player. Think of how the Colts used Dallas Clark or how the Redskins used Chris Cooley. Andrews’ comfort in lining up all over the offensive formation will give him ample playing time, even early on in his career. With playing time will come production, as Andrews is an accomplished receiver with a knack for making plays in the red zone. Right now, he isn’t on the fantasy football community’s radar, which is why he has an undrafted ADP. Having said that though, he is certainly someone to keep an eye on going forward throughout the season, especially while playing for a team devoid of current red zone threats.
Tre’Quan Smith – WR, NO
Anytime the Saints draft a wide receiver with potential – especially one taken as high as the third round – the fantasy community should take notice. We saw it with Brandin Cooks and Michael Thomas , and now it’s time you heard of Tre’Quan Smith. Built in the mold of Sammy Watkins , Smith is a game-breaking deep threat who strikes fear into the hearts of defensive coordinators. Right now, he’s a bit raw coming off his best collegiate year, but with long strides and long arms, Smith projects to be a top-end No. 2 option as a pro. However, he still has a long way to go in terms of developing a consistent catch point and concentration with the ball in the air. For that reason, he will likely go unselected in most upcoming fantasy drafts. If he does manage to pass Ted Ginn or Austin Carr before training camp concludes – something which is totally plausible – watch out, as his fantasy stock will skyrocket. Track his name closely on the waiver wires going forward, as you definitely do not want to miss out on a potential star receiver in a Drew Brees led offense.
Third-Round Stud
Royce Freeman – RB, DEN
For all of the reasons listed above, Freeman is the class of this third round. He’s a powerful goal-line back with elite red zone potential at worst, while he offers the upside to be a legitimate feature back. His seemingly easy path to playing time gives off vibes of Kareem Hunt last season, which is something that will make every fantasy owner drool come draft day. Right now he’s being taken in the seventh round amongst 12-team leagues, which may seem steep for a third round rookie, but brace yourself, as his stock is only going to rise as August approaches.