2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Tommy Pham

Tommy Pham put together a very respectable 2019 campaign. In 145 games with the Rays, he hit 21  home runs, scored 77 runs, stole 25 bases and he slashed .273/.369/.450. He was one of just nine players to steal at least 25 bases last season, and he was one just five players to hit at least 20 home runs to go with those 25 swiped bags. He posted a 12.4 percent walk rate, which was the second-best mark of his career, and his 18.8 percent strikeout rate was the best mark of his career by 3+ percentage points!  

Pham made great strides at the plate and the below chart shows it, courtesy of Fangraphs.

As previously mentioned, he posted a career low strikeout rate, but he also posted career bests in SwStr% and contact rate! It was the first time of his career that he eclipsed the 80 percent contact mark.

Despite his batting average dropping each of the two seasons, he’s hit at least .273 in three straight seasons, and has an on-base percentage of .367 or higher. He has a lofty walk rate, and always has, so he does get a slight bump in leagues that value OBP. Even if his batting average were to flop a bit in 2020, getting to that here shortly, his 11-13 percent walk rate will help his OBP stay profitable for fantasy owners.

His BABIP of .316 was much lower than what it was in recent seasons. From 2016-2018, he hung out anywhere from .342-.368, but his .316 mark last year was far lower. He’s still speedy, and registers well in terms of sprint speeds, but he appeared to less impactful with his batted balls on the ground. While his average exit velocity remained largely intact, his average exit velocities on fly balls and line drives versus ground balls reveals some telling statistics.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant & Fangraphs

Ground balls, and being better than the league average on them is pivotal to Pham’s success. Could that batting average be in jeopardy? Could be, considering that his 2015 and 2016 marks were more comparable to the marks of 2017 and 2019. However, he maintains a good mark on fly balls and line drives, so continuing to do that will certainly help offset any concerns of a return to league normalcy, or closer to it, on grounders.

While Pham does make hard contact on his fly balls and line drives, it just simply doesn’t happen enough. Each year, I’m worried that the home run total is going to decline. Fortunately, it’s held off for the most part – 23, 21 and 21 in the past three years – but it’s not going to get much better. He’s had to ride HR/FB ratios of 26.7 percent, 21.0 percent and 19.1 percent to get to those marks, considering he’s ground balls more than 50 percent of the time in two of the past three seasons. Last year, his GB/FB ratio peaked at 2.15, after being at 1.98 and 1.71 in 2017 and 2018 respectively.

Pham will likely come in around 27-30 at-bats per home run this season, and for a guy who relies on games played to accrue home runs (137+ in two consecutive seasons), a shortened year isn’t going to do him any favors.

He is a nice power and speed guy that gives you above average speed with a little bit of pop. I’m worried about his home run production, especially in a shortened season, and that average could drop for what would be a third straight season. How far will it drop? That will be the big question. Fortunately, he has a nice walk rate that will help mitigate any batting average loss for those that value OBP in their fantasy formats.

As the 20^th outfielder off the board (pick 77), I think it’s a decent value for Pham, given his contributions in a weak category (stolen bases). However, I’d prefer him to slip a few spots in drafts, and if another owner in your league wants to push Ramón Laureano in front of Pham, and allow you to get the value on the San Diego outfielder, take it. I like Laureano, too, don’t get me wrong, but the more Pham falls, the more I’m comfortable in taking on some of those risks.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com