Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Over/Under: 8

LAD -135

The Braves homered their way to a Game 1 victory belting three bombs, including two in the ninth inning. Clayton Kershaw was supposed to start Game 2 but due to back spasms he’s been scratched and Tony Gonsolin will instead draw the start. Gonsolin hasn’t pitched in the postseason and hasn’t made any appearances since September 26th.

Braves

The Braves are sending their young phenom to the mound with a chance to go up 2-0 in a series against the league’s best regular season. That phenom’s name? Ian Anderson . Anderson has yet to allow a run across two outings. He has a 17:3 K:BB ratio across 11.2 playoff innings to boot. Over the last month, only Anderson’s own team has a better team OPS than the Dodgers. 

Left-handed hitters have given Tony Gonsolin a bit more trouble than righties this year as he’s posted an xFIP of 4.42 compared to 3.17 xFIP vs. RHP. The Braves only have three lefties in it’s lineup tonight; Freddie Freeman , Ozzie Albies , Nick Markakis . Freeman homered in Game 1 and has a .373 AVG with a .499 wOBA vs. RHP this season. Albies, generally better versus left-handed pitching, was great against righties batting .289 with a .363 wOBA himself. Markakis didn’t have as much success against righties, however, batting just .237 with a .294 wOBA and that’s why he’s slipped to eighth in the order.

Other’s we should take interest in are Travis D’Arnaud, Marcell Ozuna and Dansby Swanson . All three of these guys have had great success against right-handed pitching. D’Arnaud is riding a seven-game hitting streak and has a .433 wOBA against righties. Ozuna, for some reason, is only 4.3K and should be a staple of our lineups when factoring in his seasonal numbers and his price. Swanson, who will likely be overlooked by both Corey Seager and Carlos Correa tonight, had a .373 wOBA against RHP himself.

A seemingly popular approach on tonight's slate will be punting with miniumum salary outfielder Cristian Pache, the Braves top prospect. He was a consensus top-20 prospect in baseball all year and was a surprise add to the NLCS roster consdering he has four at-bats of major league service. It wouldn't surprise me to see him pinch hit for in this one, so I air on the side of caution if doing so.

Dodgers

We’re not getting Clayton Kershaw due to back spasms which sucks, but Tony Gonsolin will step in and pitch the biggest game of his career. As mentioned above, he hasn’t pitched in nearly three weeks, which could be concerning. Is he an opener? Will he pitch as long as he can until Dave Roberts makes the walk to the mound? It’s a risk for sure. Not to mention, the Braves are the number one ranked team against right-handed pitching on the year.

The Dodgers are second in baseball against right-handed pitching in terms of OPS. Their top three hitters in tonight’s lineup (Mookie Betts , Corey Seager , Justin Turner ) are all hitting .320 or greater along with a .397+ wOBA versus right-handed pitching. In fact, six of the Dodgers in tonight’s lineup have a .360 wOBA or better vs. RHP. 

Circling back to Mookie Betts , Corey Seager and Justin Turner , the righties are slightly more in play than Seager. Not to say Seager isn’t an option, but righties have had a bit more success than left-handers. Anderson’s K-rate against RHH is 22.4% compared to 36.4% and his xFIP vs. RHH is 4.52 compared to 2.53 vs. LHP. Betts hit all 16 HR of his homers against right-handed pitching. Turner is hitting .340 vs. RHP compared to .234 vs. LHP.

The Dodgers hottest hitter is Bellinger despite going 0-for-4 in Game 1 and is a potential GPP winner here. The price is extremely appealing, which is why I’m most interested. Will Smith is one of the six righties that hit right-handed pitching well and is fairly cheap across the industry. The same can be said for AJ Pollock as he’s just 3.9K, but the ultimate GPP boom-or-bust play is Joc Pederson , who’s in the lineup, and is just 2.9K. Pederson has hit 121 of his 130 home runs against right-handed pitching.


 

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros

Over/Under: 8.5

Pick ‘em

With the Astros down 2-0 they turn to Jose Urquidy with their season potentially on the line. Urquidy had a solid 2020 campaign, but did not look great against Oakland in the Division Series giving up four home runs. The Rays will deploy Ryan Yarbrough , who has been used as both a starter and an opener, with hopes of pushing this series to 3-0.

Rays

Ryan Yarbrough has a tough task ahead of him facing off against a lineup that hits left-handed pitching very well. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of his last four starts and has accomplished that feat in five-of-six. Yarbrough is very good at inducing ground balls but the Astros are 24th in that category, so something will give here.

When talking about the Rays offense, it very clearly starts with Randy Arozarena. Arozarena has homered four times over his first nine postseason games and has hits and a run scored in each of the first two games of this series. He has a .349 wOBA vs. RHP and Jose Urquidy has struggled with righties, quite a bit. RHH have a .500 SLG and a .368 wOBA against Urquidy this season.

Speaking about righties, the Rays don’t have many, but Willy Adamas, Yandy Díaz and Manuel Margot are in play. Margot was the X-factor in Game 2 belting a three-run homer and has a .284 AVG vs. RHP this season. Diaz missed a bunch of time due to injury this year but hit .325 with a .372 wOBA versus righties. Adames was far better against lefties this year, but has a random home run in his bat from time to time.

The Rays lineup is cluttered with lefties, led by Brandon Lowe and Austin Meadows . Both players posted a .331 wOBA or better versus right-handed pitching this year. We can also throw Ji-Man Choi and Joey Wendle into the mix as both have had plenty of success against righties in 2020.

Astros

The Astros pitching staff has been decimated this year and are using Jose Urquidy as it’s Game 3 starter. Urquidy, as mentioned already, allowed 4 HR in his Division Series start. He allowed 1.21 HR/9 this year, prior to the postseason. The Rays offense will be a popular approach on Tuesday.

We have to start with Carlos Correa when talking about the Astros offense because he belted his fifth home run of this postseason in Game 2 and continues to scorch opposing pitching. He’s driven in 13 runs in eight playoff games, along with the 5 HR. Next, Alex Bregman is firmly in play as he was the team’s best hitter against southpaws this season posting a .319 AVG and .408 wOBA.

Some other names to consider are Jose Altuve who has hit in four straight games and is notoriously good against left-handed pitching, George Springer who has posted an OPS of 1.117 over the last 14 days and Yuli Gurriel who is just 3.1K on DraftKings and hit .290 with a .366 wOBA vs. LHP this year.  

Taking a dart throw on one of Houston’s left-handed hitters isn’t the worst idea and if doing so, I prefer Michael Brantley to Kyle Tucker and Josh Reddick .

 

 

**These are Example Lineups, they are not meant to be plugged in and played as is.**