New York Jets @ Detroit Lions
Game Total: 44.5
Line: Lions -6.5
Game Play Predictions
The Jets are starting their third overall pick, Sam Darnold , at quarterback tonight in the first game of the year. Darnold was turnover prone last year in college throwing 13 picks and fumbling the ball 12 times in 14 games. Mistakes will happen.
Jermaine Kearse is doubtful for the Jets on Monday so they’ll rely upon last year’s breakout wide receiver Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa as the two primary targets.
Enunwa is returning from a neck injury and missed the 2017 season, but in 2016 he caught 58 passes for 800-plus yards. He will be starting across from Robby Anderson .
Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell are both going to receive a heavy workload on Monday. Crowell should see the early down touches while Powell gets most of his looks in passing situations and third down formations.
The Jets defense allowed the 13th most passing yards in 2017, which is what the Lions look to do A LOT.
Speaking of passing, Matthew Stafford ranked third in passing yards and fourth in passing touchdowns last season.
The Lions enter this game with a running attack similar to the Jets, but they have four guys going to tote the rock. Kerryon Johnson could end up with the most carries, but we all know LeGarrette Blount will be in on any short yardage situations, including if and when the Lions march into the red zone. Theo Riddick is going to be the guy they turn to in passing situations and Ameer Abdullah , their starter last year, could be the one they turn to if Johnson and Blount can’t get anything going. What a mess.
In 2017 we saw 227 targets from Matt Stafford go to just Golden Tate and Marvin Jones Jr. and we should expect more of the same this year. Sprinkle in everyone’s preseason darling in Kenny Golladay and you have the Detroit wideouts that will be the primary focus.
Pregame Props
1. The last non-kneeling, offensive play of the 1st Quarter is a running play (we'll leave this open until the 2:00 mark) Yes (2.5x) No (2.5x)
This is very challenging to answer, but here’s my thinking. The Jets will likely have a more conservative approach in the first quarter calling their plays. Breaking Sam Darnold in slowly, so if they have the ball, I could see it ending in a run. If it’s the Lions however, only three QB’s threw the ball more last season. I’m going YES because I think the Lions dominate time of possession here.
2. S. Darnold throws for more passing yards than M. Stafford in the 1st Quarter Yes (4.5x) No (1.6x)
I’m going to go with NO here and I’m not going to overthink it. Up above I noted that Stafford was third in football in passing yards last year. I’d be willing to use my one shot 1000 point bonus here because this is all but wrapped up.
3. Both teams combine for 11 or more points in the 1st Quarter Yes (3.3x) No (2.2x)
With Vegas putting the total at 44.5, 11 points puts us right on par with their thinking. I think we could see a big offensive night from Detroit, starting early, so I’m going YES here.
4. NYJ rush for a first down on their opening drive Yes (3.4x) No ( 2.1x)
As I stated earlier in the prop questions, I think the Jets pound the rock early and often in this one. If they’re doing that it would be hard for me to believe they wouldn’t pick up a first down if they’re being successful. Going YES here.
5. M. Stafford completes 4 or more passes on DET opening drive Yes (3.1x) No (2.3x)
Big night for Matty Fratford incoming. Big YES here
6. The first offensive play of the game is a passing play Yes (3x) No (2x)
Although I think the Jets play conservatively to start, they could get Darnold going early here and want to get the confidence from the jump. We know the Lions want to throw the ball too, so again, going YES here.