DFS MLB Stacks: September 6
James Grande takes a look at today's MLB slate and offers up his favorite DFS stacks to play in both cash games and GPP contests on FanDuel and DraftKings.
For Wednesday’s Main Slate, there are a bunch of quality arms on the hill. Even some of the lower-tier options we like to normally pick on are in decent spots that stacking against them could really backfire. Below are my three favorite stacks (in order).
Houston Astros vs. Andrew Moore (R)
To be quite frank; Andrew Moore is not any good. He’s making his first start since being recalled to the MLB and there’s a good reason as to why he wasn’t on the big league team before September call-ups. His last four outings for Seattle (three starts and one relief appearance) resulted in outings of four earned runs or more. He doesn’t miss bats either, notching a putrid 10.5% K-rate on the year. He allowed a .282/.309/.562 slash and 11 homers in just 38.1 innings. Moore’s fatal strikeout flaw isn’t just something that’s occurred at the big league level, but at every stop he’s made. He posted a 7.9 K/9 mark at Triple-A this season and just a 7.1 mark at Double-A in 2016.
Versus right-handed pitching this season, the Astros rank first in literally every major category (AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, ISO, wOBA). They’re sixth in homers, which makes this a nightmare matchup for Moore seeing how prone to the longball he’s been. Every player mentioned except George Springer is hitting north of .300 vs. RHP on the year and Springer’s hitting .287.
Kansas City Royals vs. Matt Boyd (L)
In the fantasy sports industry, we describe pitchers such as Matt Boyd a “gas can.” Gas cans are exactly who we want to stack against because they’re just not any good. Although Boyd has allowed all 14 of his homers to the right side of the plate, lefties are still hitting a cool .312 against him. He’s notched a .341 wOBA vs. lefties while righties have posted a .373 mark. Boyd was decent his last time out, but in the two starts prior he gave up 10 ER combined. We did note lefties have hit Boyd well this season, but the RHH are the ones making all the hard contact as he’s allowed a 38.4-percent hard hit rate to righties on the year.
Vegas believes in the Royals too, giving them the fourth highest total on the main slate at 5.47 IR. Lorenzo Cain has slashed .429/.478/.524 over the last seven days, while Melky Cabrera is hitting .333, Mike Moustakas .318 and Eric Hosmer .316 over that same span. The Royals bats are hot and I expect them to continue that trend in this one.
New York Yankees vs. Kevin Gausman (R)
Aaron Judge, Starlin Castro, Greg Bird, Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner
This is going to be the fifth start Gausman makes versus the Yankees this year. In the first three meetings, Gausman’s allowed a combined 18 ER. He’s allowed at least 10 base runners in each of the four starts and in his most recent outing against them he allowed seven earned runs. Gausman has undoubtedly turned a corner this year and has been sharp lately throwing 13.2 consecutive scoreless innings, but he’s been worse at home all year. His HR/9 mark spikes from 1.11 on the road to 1.81 at home and his 4.80 FIP is nothing to write home about either. It’s no coincidence that Gausman’s been worse at home either, especially with the homerun ball. Camden Yards has allowed 240 HR this year, which is 25 more than the stadium in second.
The Yankees currently sit with a 5.23 implied run total which is the sixth highest mark on the main slate. Aaron Judge, Matt Holliday, Starlin Castro and Brett Gardner are all hitting .325 or better versus Gausman in their careers and they all have double-digit at-bat samples. The Yankees as a team this year rank second in both OPS and wOBA vs. RHP, so Gausman could have another rough outing in this one. This stack could be quite low owned due to how well Gausman has pitched of late.